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The state capture and oligarchic control of political power and electoral processes in the associated countries of the Eastern Partnership – Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – are acknowledged by EUinstitutions, civil society organisations and in public opinion. That inevitably puts pressure on the resilience of these three countries, in addition to Russia’s aggressive campaigns, carried out with or without the use of conventional weaponry. This policy brief looks at the EU’s actions to invest in and consolidate the rule of law, in the direction of stimulating internal resilience. It provides a range of arguments supporting the idea that the EU is not sufficiently tackling the oligarchic influences inMoldova, Ukraine and Georgia. These are followed by timely recommendations for the EU institutionsto remedy the situation.
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During the pandemic that marked the year 2020, it was not possible to decide whether dictatorships or democracies were more successful in dealing with the epidemic. Debates about the essence and nature of democracies appeared when it became clear that the “progress of democracy” recoiled in some states, thatthe “waves of democratization” had not resulted in liberal democracies, as it was anticipated in the early 1990s. A historical analysis of this has made it clear that a dichotomy which interprets the development of political regimes in a rigid manner, as a rectilinear way from autocracies to democracies, cannot give answers to all questions. In this moment, a new concept emerged, the theory of the “hybrid regimes”, attempting to classify and interpret the “transitional” forms of regimes between the ideal type of liberal democracies (otherwise undefined) and the autocracies (or dictatorships). There are several approaches, including: 1) hybrid regimes as incomplete, damaged democracies; 2) hybrid regimes as forms of breakup or transformation of autocracies; 3) hybrid regimes as specific systems, defined by specific historical circumstances that cannot be clearly deduced from either democracies or autocracies. These attempts of typification are complemented by a newer approach, which, based on the concept of “leader democracy” (András Körösényi), puts in the forefront government action, trust in leadership instead of the procedural legitimacy of democracies, and thus it places the debate “democracy vs. hybrid regime” in a new context. During the pandemic, this approach has become particularly relevant; the crisis can only be dealt effectively by strong governments that sometimes suspend the usual system of checks and balances in democracies. Therefore, understanding the nature of hybrid regimes and a comprehensive examination of crisis management as political action can provide very important considerations for the understanding of democracies in a broader context.
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ALTERNATIVES FOR GAS SUPPLY OF UKRAINE: LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG) AND NON-TRADITIONAL GAS // SECTION 1. WORLD LNG MARKETS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR DIVERSIFICATION GAS SUPPLY OF UKRAINE // 1.1. WORLD LNG MARKETS: STATE, FEATURES, TRENDS // 1.2. LNG TRADE: FEATURES OF CONTRACTS AND PRICING // 1.3. MAIN FACTORS OF LNG COMPETITIVENESS // 1.4. PROSPECTS OF WORLD LNG TRADE // 1.5. PROSPECTS AND PROBLEMS OF LNG SUPPLY TO UKRAINE // SECTION 2. DEVELOPMENT OF NON-TRADITIONAL GAS MARKETS IN THE WORLD AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE // 2.1. WORLD NON-TRADITIONAL GAS MARKETS: OVERVIEW // 2.2. SALT GAS MARKET: STATE AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT // 2.3. METHANE OF COAL DEPOSITS // 2.4. GAS OF DENSE COLLECTORS // 2.5. PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE HYDROGATE GAS MARKET // SECTION 3. CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS // DIVERSIFICATION OF GAS SUPPLY OF UKRAINE: POSITIONS OF SPECIALISTS // POLAND IN SEARCH OF NEW SOURCES OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY // SLATE PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE: THE REVOLUTION CANCELED // PROSPECTS OF NON-TRADITIONAL GAS IN UKRAINE AND IN THE WORLD // DETERMINATION OF PRIORITY LNG SUPPLIERS TO UKRAINE AND TERMS OF TRADE IN IT
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Mediji i narod lažu, a to ne treba da rade, kaže predsednik države, čije bezgranične ingerencije ne poznaje nijedan ustav neke postojeće parlamentarne države. I u pravu je, jer jedino on uzima sebi pravo da određuje šta je laž a šta istina, kako mu odgovara. Nikakvog drugog kriterijuma nema. I niko drugi nema takvog prava. Šta tu nije u redu? Tako radi Tramp u slučaju korona virusa: prvo je tvrdio da su problem izmislili demokrati; onda da virus nije ozbiljani da će brzo proći, i onda konačno da je to strani virus i da je unet iz Evrope, gde nisu uveli prave mere zaštite. Ako mislite da je to išlo bez šale i komike, pogledajte kako šef štaba za bolesti reaguje kad Tramp proglasi nekog drugog nadležnim za taj posao, i kako Tramp na demanti beži na zadnja vrata, sve pred kamerama!
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PUBLIC POLICIES: MODELS OF DONBAS CONFLICT SETTLEMENT // ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: COSTS OF DONBAS CONFLICT SETTLEMENT // POLITICAL COMPETITION: POSITIONS OF UKRAINIAN POLITICAL PARTIES REGARDING DONBAS CONFLICT SETTLEMENT
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In Ukraine today, the environment for a dialog between the state and citizens on public control over public healthcare spending is almost entirely lacking. The reason for this is the absence of the necessary mechanisms, institutions, procedures and practices for public participation in the decision-making process within authorities. But extending democratic principles to healthcare is one way to improve publicpolicy in this area and raise the health of Ukrainian society in general. The development and institution of public control over public healthcare spending should be a reform priority. This, in turn, requires a set of clear, understandable and transparent rules and procedures. This manual presents a practical model for public control over public healthcare spending. The main requirements attached to this model are described in terms of legal and institutional arrangements for public control, the dissemination of information and the participation of NGOs in mobilizing the general public. Jointly prepared by specialists from the Euro-Balkan Institute (Macedonia), the Public Policy Research Center (Kazakhstan), and the International Centre for Policy Studies (Ukraine), the uniqueness of this publication lies in the fact that, during its preparation, public policy tools used in the European Union, Central Europe and Central Asia were examined.
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THE OPPOSITION IN UKRAINE // 1. THE OPPOSITION IN UKRAINE: GENERAL DESCRIPTION // 2. THE AUTHORITIES AND THE OPPOSITION IN UKRAINE // 3. LEGAL REGULATION OF THE STATUS OF THE PPOSITION, ITS RIGHTS AND GUARANTEES OF ITS ACTIVITY // 4. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS // POSITIONS OF THE POLITICAL LEADERS // THE OPPOSITION NOT ONLY MUST MAKE A DIAGNOSIS BUT ALSO OFFER A REMEDY // OUR OPPOSITION RESTS ON THE PEOPLES'S WILL // WE STRUGGLE FOR POWER NOT FOR POWER’S SAKE, BUT TO ENABLE OUR PEOPLE TO LIVE IN HAPPINESS, KINDNESS AND HARMONY // WE ARE NOT THE OPPOSITION, WE ARE AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE OFFICIAL POWER // "OUR UKRAINE" IS TO IMPLEMENT THE VOTERS' WILL // POSITIONS OF REPRESENTATIVES OF POLITICAL PARTIES (BLOCS) ON THE EVE OF THE 2002 ELECTION // THE AUTHORITIES AND THE OPPOSITION: DOMESTIC EXPERIENCE // LESSONS OF THE REVOLUTION, WHICH DID NOT TAKE PLACE // THE AUTHORITIES AND THE OPPOSITION: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE // OPPOSITION IN THE SEIMAS OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA: THE RIGHTS AND GUARANTEES OF ITS ACTIVITY // PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION IN THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY: CONSTITUTIONAL GUARANTIES OF RIGHTS AND ACTIVITIES // PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION IN FRANCE: LEGISLATIVE SUPPORT AND TRADITIONS OF ACTIVITY // PROTECTION OF MINORITY RIGHTS IS ONE OF THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE U.S. CONSTITUTION
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SOME ASPECTS OF PROFESSIONALISATION OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE // TRANSITION TO PROFESSIONAL ARMED FORCES IN UKRAINE: THE PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS // 1. FACTORS PROMPTING TRANSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES TO MANNING ON A VOLUNTEER BASIS AND PROMOTING IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PLANS OF TRANSISION // 2. FACTORS HINDERING TRANSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKPAINE TO MANNING ON A VOLUNTEER BASIS // 3. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS // A PROFESSIONAL ARMY IN UKRAINE: THE VIEWS AND ASSESSMENTS OF THE POPULATION // POSITIONS OF DOMESTIC EXPERTS // PROFESSIONAL ARMY NEEDS AN ADEQUATE FINANCING “PEOPLE'S ARMY” IS A FICTION // THE DEFENCE OF THE COUNTRY — FOR PROFESSONALS ONLY // CHANGES IN THE PROGRAMME OF COMBAT TRAINING OF THE LAND FORCES // A PROFESSIONAL ARMY REQUIRES A NEW HUMAN RESOURCES STRATEGY // ON THE PATH TOWARDS PROFESTONAL ARMED FORCES OF UKRANE // TRANSITION TO PROFESSIONAL ARMY REQUIRES A REFORMING OF RESERVE TRAINING SYSTEM // THE STATE OF FUNDING OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE // PROFESSIONALISM OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE: THE LEGAL ASPECT // PROFESSIONALISM OF THE ARMY: THE MYTHS AND REALITIES // POSITIONS OF FOREIGN EXPERTS // SOUTH AFRICA'S EXPERIENCE IN PROFESSIONALISATION OF THE ARMED FORCES // THE MILITARY VOLUNTARY SERVICE IN THE ARGENTINE ARMY // RESHAPING EUROPEAN ARMED FORCES FOR THE 21st CENTURY // SCENARIOS OF RUSSIAN ARMY TRANSITION TO PROFESSIONAL BASIS // PROFESSIONAL ARMY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS: “FOR” AND “AGAINST” // THE ALL-VOLUNTEER FORCE IN EASTERN EUROPE: WHEN THE ARMED FORCES MEET SOCIETY // PROFESSIONALISATION: A REVISIONIST CRITIQUE // STATE PROGRAMME OF TRANSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE TO MANNING WITH CONTRACTED SERVICEMEN
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Organization, functionality and transparency of the executive branch has an overwhelming influence on the quality of political decisions, and consequently the quality of life of all citizens, via their attitude to and management of the public interest and resources. Every country determines, in accordance with its own legal framework, the structure and organization of its executive, depending on the policy priorities and goals set by the government itself, and preferrably in accordance with the real needs and possibilities. Practices differ, and so do the results. What kind of Government does Montenegro need? What is the role of inner cabinets, what are their advantages and disadvantages? How much do the members of the Government and advisors to the inner cabinet cost? How can we reach an effective organization of the government that is accountable to the citizens? These were some of starting questions that motivated the team of the Centre for Civic Education’s (CCE) to review the current system of organisation of the Montenegrin Government, with a focus on the inner cabinet and number of ministries, and compare them to some of the neighbouring countries, some EU member states, as well as to some third countries that for varous reasons could act be role models to Montenegro. We compared Montenegro to Serbia, Croatia, Slovakia, Germany and Iceland. The choice of these countries follows a clearly defined methodological research framework, in order to include candidate states, members of the European Union, as well as third countries. Specifically, for the purpose of comparative analysis, Serbia was selected as an EU candidate state, Croatia as the last member state that acceded to the EU, Slovakia as the country currently in charge of the EU presidency (since 1 July, 2016) and FR Germany as one of the founders of the EU, but also Iceland as a country that is not currently aspiring to join the EU, but whose size makes for a relevant comparison to Montenegro. This analysis is part of regular activities of the CCE within the sub-programme Accountability and Transparency of Authorities.
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This research focuses on liberal parties in the region of Western Balkans and their strategies for advancement and promotion of gender equality, not just within the party but also in their respective countries. The aim of this analysis is to review the current standpoints on equal gender representation in politics in WB liberal political parties, to map their roles and strategies for advancement of gender equality, and to raise the visibility of successful regional examples. Political systems and legislative frameworks in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia were reviewed and assessed through an in-depth analysis of their quota systems and the roles of the liberal political parties with to gender equality development, as well as the impact of the NGO sector. This research also examines and considers the social aspects of gender inequality in public and in decision-making processes. Previous research indicates that political parties often do not support female politicians’ participation in the processes of political programme development or political affirmation, despite having adopted gender equality policies in place. Research is conceptualised as a case study of three liberal parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia and their strategies for development and promotion of gender equality within the party as well as in their respective countries. Comparative analysis was conducted using a mixed methods approach, combining qualitative analysis of primary and secondary data and quantitative analysis of primary data collection to triangulate the information to the extent possible. In order to develop the new regional story – Regional Initiative 50%– we need this research to examine intra-party democracy in these liberal parties, map their current views on gender equality and see what types of activities could be introduced and adjusted to the needs of their parties and party systems.
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Fokus ovog istraživanja je na liberalnim strankama regije Zapadnog Balkana i njihovim strategijama za unapređenje i promociju rodne ravnopravnosti ne samo unutar njihovih stranaka, već i u zemljama njihovog djelovanja. Cilj analize je preispitati trenutna stajališta za ravnopravnu zastupljenost spolova u politici u liberalnim političkim strankama Zapadnog Balkana, mapirati uloge i strategije za unapređenje rodne ravnopravnosti u politici, i povećati vidljivost uspješnih primjera iz regije. Analiza političkih sistema i zakonodavnih okvira Bosne i Hercegovine, Crne Gore i Sjeverne Makedonije je također obuhvaćena ovim istraživanjem, kao i analiza sistema kvota i uloge liberalnih političkih stranaka u odnosu na razvoj rodne ravnopravnosti, uz osvrt na uticaj nevladinog sektora. Ovo istraživanje također ispituje i razmatra društveneaspekte rodne nejednakosti u javnosti i u procesima donošenja odluka. Prethodna istraživanja ukazuju na to da političke stranke često ne podržavaju zastupljenost članica u procesima razvoja političkih programa, niti političku afirmaciju bez obzira na usvojene politike rodne ravnopravnosti unutar same stranke. Istraživanje je koncipirano kao studija slučaja tri liberalne stranke Bosne i Hercegovine, Crne Gore i Sjeverne Makedonije i njihovih strategija razvoja i promocije rodne ravnopravnosti unutar samih stranaka, kao i u zemljama u kojima one djeluju. Uporedna analiza provodi se oslanjajući se na pristup mješovitih metoda koji kombinuje kvalitativnu analizu primarnih i sekundarnih podataka, kao i kvantitativnu analizu prikupljanja primarnih podataka radi triangulacije informacija u najvećoj mogućoj mjeri. Kako bismo mogli razviti novu regionalnu priču - Regionalna inicijativa 50%, potrebno nam je ovo istraživanje kako bismo ispitali unutarstranačku demokraciju unutar navedenih liberalnih stranaka i prikazali trenutna stajališta u vezi s rodnom ravnopravnošću, a u svrhu procjene koje bi se vrste aktivnosti mogle uvesti i prilagoditi potrebama samih stranaka i stranačkih sistema za razvoj rodne ravnopravnosti i bolje zastupljenosti žena u politici u budućnosti.
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This research focused on liberal parties in the Western Balkans region and their strategies for the advancement and promotion of political participation of the youth, not just within the party but also in their respective countries. The aim of this analysis was to review the current standpoints on youth representation in politics in the liberal political parties of the Western Balkans, to map their roles and strategies for advancement of youth political inclusion, and to raise the visibility of successful regional examples. Political, legal and policy contexts and frameworks in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia and North Macedonia were reviewed and assessed through the analysis of their quota systems, as well as through the overview of current youth representation in the parliaments of WB countries. Previous research indicates that political parties often do not support young politicians’ participation in the processes of political program development, despite having adopted youth programs and policies. The research was conceptualized as a case study of four liberal parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia and North Macedonia and their strategies for development and promotion of political participation of the youth within the party, as well as in their respective countries. Comparative analysis was conducted using a mixed methods approach, combining qualitative analysis of primary and secondary data and quantitative analysis of primary data collection to triangulate the information to the extent possible. In order to develop the new regional story, we need this research to examine intra-party democracy in these liberal parties, map their current views on youth and politics and see what types of activities could be introduced and adjusted to the needs of their parties and party systems.
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Fokus ovog istraživanja su liberalne stranke Zapadnog Balkana i njihove strategije za unapređenje i promociju političke participacije mladih, ne samo unutar stranaka, već i u njihovim zemljama. Cilj ove analize bio je sagledati trenutna stajališta o zastupljenosti mladih u politici u liberalnim političkim strankama Zapadnog Balkana, mapirati njihove uloge i strategije za unapređenje političke uključenosti mladih te povećati vidljivost uspješnih primjera iz regije. Politički i pravni konteksti i okviri Bosne i Hercegovine, Crne Gore, Srbije i Sjeverne Makedonije pregledani su kroz analizu njihovih sistema kvota, kao i kroz pregled trenutne zastupljenosti mladih u parlamentima zemalja Zapadnog Balkana. Dosadašnja istraživanja pokazuju da političke stranke često u praksi ne podržavaju učešće mladih političara u procesima izrade političkih programa, iako su usvojile programe i politike za mlade. Istraživanje je koncipirano kao studija slučaja četiri liberalne stranke iz Bosne i Hercegovine, Crne Gore, Srbije i Sjeverne Makedonije i njihovih strategija za razvoj i promociju političke participacije mladih ne samo unutar stranakaveći u njihovim zemljama. Komparativna analiza provedena je korištenjem mješovitih metoda: kombiniranjem kvalitativne analize primarnih i sekundarnih podataka i kvantitativne analize prikupljenih primarnih podataka kako bi se informacije triangulirale u najvećoj mogućoj mjeri. Kako bismo razvili novu regionalnu priču, potrebno nam je istraživanje koje ispituje unutarstranačku demokraciju u tim liberalnim strankama, mapira njihove trenutne poglede na mlade i relevantne politike, te sagledava koje bi se aktivnosti mogle uvesti i prilagoditi potrebama njihovih stranaka i stranačkih sistema.
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On 14 May Turkey will hold both presidential and parliamentary elections. Seeking to extend its21-year rule is the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Their main rival is the opposition bloc dominated by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), whose leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is running for president. An opposition victory would mark the beginning of a tumultuous process of re-evaluation and reckoning for the AKP government, while an AKP victory would lead to the petrification of the status quo. The election comes against the backdrop of an economic crisis and social polarisation, as well as frustrations present in the population, which have been exacerbated by the earthquake and growing accusations of authoritarianism in Turkey. According to the polls, the chances of victory for these two groups are very even, making it hard to predict the outcome of the elections. In the current situation, the result of the elections is likely to be contested by the losing side which might lead to public protests. This state of social tensions would be prolonged in the very likely event of run-off of the presidential election (28 May).
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Miloš Zeman will complete his second presidential term in March 2023. He will be replaced by one of eight candidates who will face off in the January elections. The first round of voting will take place on 13–14 January, with a second round on 27–28 January very likely. Among the contenders, three favourites stand out: two figures from outside politics will face ex-Prime Minister Andrej Babiš (ANO) – General Petr Pavel, the former chairman of the NATO Military Committee; and Danuše Nerudová, the former rector of the Mendel University in Brno and a professor of public finance. Recent polls rule out the possibility of any candidate winning in the first round. If Nerudová’s campaign does not regain momentum, the second round will almost certainly feature Pavel and Babiš, the latter of whom has a disciplined group of voters. However, the former prime minister has limited chances of success there due to his large negative electorate.
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On 17 May, the foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland signed their applications to join the North Atlantic Alliance, and these were officially submitted to NATO in Brussels a day later. This marked the end of a process of revolutionary speed to form internal political consensus, fundamentally changing the security policy of the two hitherto non-aligned states. The brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a sudden change in public opinion in Finland, which influenced the position of the Finnish political parties. The expected turnaround in Helsinki’s security policy in turn influenced the stance of Sweden’s governing Social Democrats. During the accession process Sweden and Finland, with the help of the NATO member states, will have to remove Turkey’s objections to their NATO membership and be prepared for Russian retaliatory actions.
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In November, an open conflict broke out between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine’s richest businessman, Rinat Akhmetov. The main cause was Zelensky’s signing of the so-called law on oligarchs. In response, Akhmetov’s television channels, including the most popular one in Ukraine, began to ruthlessly attack the president and to promote his political rivals, in particular the former chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmytro Razumkov, who had been dismissed a few weeks earlier and who until recently had been one of the key representatives of the ruling camp, a person with high public support. In response, Zelensky publicly suggested that Akhmetov was involved in an allegedly prepared state coup and that his entourage was dragging him into a war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the President’s Office stepped up actions against his business.
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Russia’s ruling elite believes that the outcome of the US presidential elections will have only a negligible impact on Washington’s policy towards Moscow, because the American establishment is convinced that Russia under Vladimir Putin has consistently pursued an anti-American policy. In Russia’s view, each candidate has both strong and weak points, but in the end the Kremlin would prefer to see Donald Trump remain in the White House. To this end, Moscow has been active – particularly in the sphere of propaganda – with the aim of weakening Joe Biden’s candidacy and stoking domestic tensions in American society. However, the scope of Russia’s activity seems more limited compared to the previous electoral campaign. However, Moscow is likely to step up its activities should a political conflict emerge over the outcome of the election. A victory for the Democratic presidential candidate will result in revisions in US policy towards Russia. The incoming Biden administration can be expected to combine tough rhetoric on its divergences with Russia in the field of values with attempts to find areas where their interests converge and where cooperation can take place (such as arms control, the resolution of regional conflicts and the fight against terrorism), complemented by efforts to coordinate the West’s policy towards Russia.
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Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for 18 June 2023. These elections constitute a critical juncture for Turkey’s future. They will either put an end to or consolidate the 20 years of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule in the country. Due to a worsening economic crisis and a deepening refugee question, the government policies have lost significant levels of public support in the last two years. Yet, the elections in Turkey are held under unfair conditions due to the government control of the media, misuse of state resources and the vast powers that the executive has over the judicial authorities. The amendments introduced in the election law in April 2022 and the disinformation bill that passed in October 2022 create further advantages for the government in terms of increasing its control over the electoral process. Under these conditions, the success of the oppositional alliances depends on two criteria. First, the alliances must become unified in terms of supporting a joint candidate in the presidential elections both among and within themselves. Second, they must spend extraordinary effort to mobilize the undecided and protest voters, which would give a strong message of their determination to win the elections. If the opposition wins the elections, there will be a new window of opportunity for the EU and the new Turkish administration to prepare the grounds for a positive, stable relationship. Yet, the EU should not expect a speedy recovery in the relations due to mixed stances within the opposition and the recurrent societal perceptions that ‘the EU is biased towards Turkey. ’If the current government is re-elected, the EU should prepare itself for an increased frequency of escalated political tensions with Turkey. The EU should aim to develop a new interest-based framework to cooperate with Turkey in the areas of trade, migration, border protection and energy.
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