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BIOTECHNOLOGICAL RESEARCH IN UKRAINE FOR SOLVING ENERGY, MEDICAL-BIOLOGICAL AND MEDICAL-ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS IN 2009-2015 TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT WITH THE EU

Author(s): Igor Yu. Matyushenko / Language(s): English Issue: 28/2018

This article summarizes the main results of the biotechnological research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine aimed at solving energy, medical-biological and medical-ecological problems during the period from2009 to 2015. The prospective bio resources and directions of implementation of the latest technologies of bioenergy conversion for the production of liquid biofuels and expansion of their use for biodiesel were determined. The latest medical and biological and bioengineering technologies for human health and the national economy, biologically active substances for human health, ecological and economic mechanisms of rational use, protection and monitoring of natural resources, new technologies for the efficient use of energy resources were presented in the article. The authors systematized the results of the current research of theNational Academy of Science of Ukraine aimed at the development of modern methods for the prevention and diagnosis of diseases in humans and animals, modern methods of cell biotechnology and metabolic engineering for the creation of super products of biologically active substances, new forms of plants and microorganisms, the genetic design of improved microorganisms and lines of plant and animal cells for the development of medical and agricultural biotechnology. The authors proved that these directions of research fully correspond to the world-wide trends in research in biomedicine.

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Logit and Probit application for the prediction of bankruptcy in Slovak companies

Author(s): Mária Kováčová,Tomáš Klieštik / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2017

Prediction of bankruptcy is an issue of interest of various researchers and practitioners since the first study dedicated to this topic was published in 1932. Finding the suitable bankruptcy prediction model is the task for economists and analysts from all over the world. forecasting model using. Despite a large number of various models, which have been created by using different methods with the aim to achieve the best results, it is still challenging to predict bankruptcy risk, as corporations have become more global and more complex. Purpose of the article: The aim of the presented study is to construct, via an empirical study of relevant literature and application of suitable chosen mathematical statistical methods, models for bankruptcy prediction of Slovak companies and provide the comparison of overall prediction ability of the two developed models. Methods: The research was conducted on the data set of Slovak corporations covering the period of the year 2015, and two mathematical statistical methods were applied. The methods are logit and probit, which are both symmetric binary choice models, also known as conditional probability models. On the other hand, these methods show some significant differences in process of model formation, as well as in achieved results. Findings & Value added: Given the fact that mostly discriminant analysis and logistic regression are used for the construction of bankruptcy prediction models, we have focused our attention on the development bankruptcy prediction model in the Slovak Republic via logistic regression and probit. The results of the study suggest that the model based on a logit functions slightly outperforms the classification accuracy of probit model. Differences were obtained also in the detection of the most significant predictors of bankruptcy prediction in these types of models constructed in Slovak companies.

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A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of corporate bankruptcy prediction models based on financial ratios: Evidence from Colombia

Author(s): Jackson Arroyave / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2018

Logit and discriminant analyses have been used for corporate bankruptcy prediction in several studies since the last century. In recent years there have been dozens of studies comparing the several models available, including the ones mentioned above and also probit, artificial neural networks, support vector machines, among others. For the first time for Colombia, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of several models predicting corporate bankruptcy. Such models have previously been mostly used in relation to European and North American markets, whereas here they are applied to the financial ratios of three firms located in Colombia. The main objective is to corroborate the validity of these models in terms of their ability to predict firm failure in the Latin American context, specifically for two bankrupt Colombian firms and one healthy one. The analysis is conducted using bankruptcy forecasting models widely proposed in the literature and used systematically in developed countries: the multiple discriminant analysis Z-Altman model, Korol’s two-function model and Prusak’s P2 model. In addition, the logit and decision tree models developed by T. Korol are tested.

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“Deliberated Intuition” in Stock Price Forecasting

Author(s): Tobias Endress / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2018

Financial analysis is a topic of interest for both academic research and businesses. Financial analysts are important elements of economic interactions. Nevertheless, there are doubts about the quality of their predictions. Special crowd-sourcing platforms facilitate group decisions as an alternative to traditional financial analysis. The objective of this paper is to investigate the quality of predictions by individuals and groups using this alternative approach. Various groups – consisting of laypeople but also financial professionals – were formed purposefully to generate equity forecasts. The data from the experiment suggest that some variables, in terms of participants’ characteristics, have a significant impact on the quality of predictions. The results show that intuition plays an important role in the decision-making process. Also, good predictors base their intuition on several factors. The results led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as “deliberated intuition”, a practice process being different for each individual. It appears that thinking about the problem in different ways and with various techniques contribute to making good predictions. The model may help in designing teams for traditional financial analysts.

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The Use of Earnings Forecast in the Building the Capital Strength of Polish IPOs

Author(s): Tomasz Sosnowski,Anna Wawryszuk-Misztal / Language(s): English Issue: 9.2/2017

This paper concerns the issue of the role of the earnings forecast voluntarily published in the IPO prospectus in the process of raising funds through the sale of newly created shares. Using the sample of 180 domestic companies seeking to be listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange between 2006-2015 we examined whether earnings forecast disclosed in the IPO prospectus facilitates raising funds through the public issuance of shares. The results allowed us to conclude that the decision on the disclosure earnings forecast in IPO prospectus does not affect the change of capital strength of new stock companies. However, companies posting over optimistic forecasts obtain more capital to strengthen their capital base.

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Gold Investment Incentives: An Empirical Identification of the Main Gold Price Determinants and Prognostication of Gold Price Future Trends

Author(s): Ligita Gasparėnienė,Rita Remeikienė,Alius Sadeckas,Romualdas Ginevičius / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2018

During the World War I, most of the countries stopped coin production and began converting paper money into gold. Various forms of exchange were later abolished during the "Great Depression" in 1929- 1933. Later, gold lost the value of money in most of the economies worldwide. Multiple price rise of gold caused a real rise in the value of gold reserves and their potential ability to cover the balance of payment deficit. At the same time, it shows that gold still plays an important role in terms of monetary aspect. The aim of this study was to determine whether ARIMA models are suitable for determining the short-term volatility of gold prices. The calculations show that ARIMA model is suitable only for short-term gold price forecasts (max. 1 year). Thus, it is necessary to apply other models (multi-regression ones) that also can reveal the relationship between gold price and its determinants.

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Optimal Control over the Process of Innovative Product Diffusion: The Case of Sony Corporation

Author(s): Viktor Oliinyk,Olga Kozmenko,Iryna Wiebe,Serhiy Kozmenko / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2018

The article deals with the process of distribution of an innovative product using the Bass model. Numerical characteristics of the generalized Bass model are described. The function of external influence is suggested to be approximated by means of a regression equation with respect to the price function of the product under investigation, which is also a control function. The control process is based on a mathematical apparatus under the Pontryagin maximum principle. An algorithm for determining the optimal price of products in order to obtain the maximum balance profit of the corporation is given. Selected numerical results of the corporate strategy implementation for conquering the market in 2017-2020 are offered.

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How Resistant is the Agricultural Sector? Economic Resilience Exploited

Author(s): Mangirdas Morkūnas,Artiom Volkov,Pasquale Pazienza / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2018

The concept of resilience has wide acceptance in different scientific doctrines and fields, from ecology to disaster management. Nowadays this phenomenon is being more and more intensively exploited in economic sciences in an attempt to measure the ability of economic systems to quickly regenerate from different external shocks or even to avoid them as such. This research paper examines economic resilience of the agricultural sector (including industries) with the example of Lithuanian empirical data. In order to measure the economic resilience of the agricultural sector, the appropriate index was created including a new derivative indicator – volatility of revenues from the desired growth path. Expert interviews, statistical analysis and econometrical modelling were employed in our research. The results show the increasing value of economic resilience of the Lithuanian agricultural sector up to the year 2015, which can be attributed to the accession into the EU, after this year inclination towards more profitable, but considerably more risky export markets lowers the calculated parameter of economic resilience of the Lithuanian agricultural sector. Such a tendency questions the sustainability of economic resilience of the Lithuanian agricultural sector.

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Zróżnicowanie prognozowanych informacji finansowych zawartych w prospektach emisyjnych spółek przeprowadzających pierwsze oferty publiczne na GPW w Warszawie

Author(s): Tomasz Sosnowski,Anna Wawryszuk-Misztal / Language(s): Polish Issue: 7.2/2017

This paper aims at recognition of the scope and accuracy of financial forecasts published in the prospectuses of companies conducting IPO on the Warsaw Stock Exchange between 2006 and 2016. Using the sample of 214 companies we answer two questions: 1) what kind of financial projections companies decide to disclosure in their IPO prospectuses? 2) what is the level of accuracy of financial predictions included in prospectuses? The results show that companies most often choose to provide investors with information on projected sales revenue, net profit, EBIT and EBITDA. Moreover, the sales projections are usually more accurate than forecasts prepared for other financial categories.

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Wykorzystanie zysku netto i EVA do predykcji notowań spółek z rynku NewConnect

Author(s): Rafał Wolski / Language(s): Polish Issue: 7.2/2017

Fundamental analysis, next to technical analysis, is the most popular method of predicting future stock quotes. Linking the company’s value to its market price is seen as logical and consistent, but the question remains whether this relationship really exists. Among a number of studies, Campbell and Shiller [1998] study seems to be one of the most important. They show that the relationship between profitability and profitability is the long term 120 months relationship. The question then arises as to whether fundamental analysis, including the use of net profit, is justified under the conditions of the volatile and risky market for which NewConnect goes. The author formulated hypothesizes that EVA will better explain future rates of return. The hypothesis was verified using a crosssectional regression analysis. As a result of the studies, there was no connexion between the net profit and the annual return rates found. Similarly, the relationship between the economic return represented by the EVA and the annual return rates was not found. The results undermine the use of fundamental analysis in the process of stock investment.

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Young people on the labour market in Poland — the point of view of the employer

Author(s): Urszula Kobylińska,Ewa Rollnik-Sadowska,Joanna Samul / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2017

Research background: The article presents the problem of youth unemployment from the perspective of employers in Poland exemplified by the research results conducted in Podlaskie province. The unemployment rate of young people in Poland in the age range 15-29, reached 14.2% in 2015. For comparison, at that time the average for the EU was higher by almost two percentage points, and the decline compared to the year 2013 was lower than in Poland. It turns out that higher education in Poland has lost its importance in the process of hiring staff. Employers are increasingly less likely to look at the educational background of candidates, as they focus more on their experience and specific skills. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to present the results of re-search regarding the diagnosis of the situation of young people on the labour market in Poland from the perspective of employers. In particular, there were competency gaps and other reasons for not recruiting young people which have been identified. Methods: Two types of research were carried out with employers from Podlaskie province: quantitative, using CATI/CAWI and qualitative, using the technique of IDI. Quantitative research was carried out on a sample of 346 respondents. A qualitative study was carried out among 16 companies registered in Podlaskie province. Findings & Value added: Among the reasons for not employing young people which were most often mentioned by the entrepreneurs in quantitative research there were financial reasons. During the interviews, employers indicated the reasons for not employing young people such as "lack of appropriate qualifications," "specific skills" or simply "practical preparation for work." Employers were asked about the competence gaps of young people, and they pointed out that they lack experience, initiative and entrepreneurship, as well as learning skills.

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Evaluation of the possibility of predicting social reactions using in-depth analysis of information published on web-portals

Author(s): Katarzyna Rostek,Piotr Młodzianowski / Language(s): English Issue: 118/2018

Based on a literature analysis of the applicability of econometric and analytical models in the forecasting of social responses it was concluded that a dominating role is played by conditions and rules deriving from statistical physics. These models examine the straight behaviour and reactions of group members in a specific situation. There are no models where the behaviour of participants is related to phenomena occurring in their environment (closer and further) and dynamically changing states of this environment (in particular the information environment). A model for the study of the web information impact on social responses has been proposed to complement the identified research gap. The model has been evaluated on the basis of investment decisions made at the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The conducted analyzes show the usefulness of the model and the possibility of its further development in the wider context of social applications.

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Forecasting the commune income as a determinant of local sustainable development

Author(s): Anna Marciniuk-Kluska / Language(s): English Issue: 117/2018

At the present time it is difficult to overcome problems with research in sustainable local development due to their diversity and the large-scale social and economic changes in development conditions. The complexity and significance of issues connected with local development assessment require a comprehensive and methodological approach which can form grounds for planning desirable events and shaping the future condition of local government units. Changes taking place in the competitive environment conditions reveal the need for a consistent, prospective and effective attitude to local processes and defining the main directions of development. Planning the development at the local level is inevitable owing to the necessity of optimising budget expenses and performing public tasks properly. The purpose of the paper is to present a forecast of the rural commune income in 2018-2020 The data from 2003-2016 (GUS) was used in order to prepare rural commune income and expenditure forecasts for 2018-2020. The level of budgetary in-come and expenditure and the increment of the smoothed variable representing the linear trend coefficient were subject to exponential smoothing. The local government units subject to the analysis are very diversified, often characterised by large-scale development gaps and low attractiveness of location; the situation is most difficult in rural areas.

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The overall Albanian legal framework of competition

Author(s): Loreta Tozaj / Language(s): English Issue: 117/2018

This paper aims to reflect and analyze developments in the legal and institutional framework of competition in Albania bringing the author's point of view based on various documents, legal acts and numerous papers of different authors. This paper also seeks to identify, the results achieved by the implementation of the new legal and institutional Albanian framework, regarding the fact that since 2004 Albania has been applying competition law/policy as an economic regulation that affects both the structure of markets and the conduct of market participants. Albania is a small European country, which since the entry into force of the SAA, has been legally obliged to fulfill the so-called “Copenhagen criteria”, namely: political criteria (democracy, rule of law, human rights, protection of minorities) and economic criteria (functioning market economy and capacity to cope with competition pressure within the internal market of the European Union). In this context Albania has made some good progress in developing a stable and functioning market economy, however, there is significant room for further improvement in many aspects. The Albanian economy appears to have most of the basic building blocks of a functional competition policy regime, though some gaps persist and enforcement records appear limited. Aiming at the EU market, Albania is a latecomer and, above all, enters a market that is highly competitive and very demanding with regard to quality, reliability and efficiency of supply.

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Analiza kolejowych przewozów intermodalnych w Polsce w latach 2010-1016

Author(s): Anna Piszcz / Language(s): Polish Issue: 115/2017

The development of intermodal transport in Poland has been noticeable in recent years. Railroad transport is most often used. Intermodal transport is still struggling with many barriers, but increasingly the infrastructure and policies of the European Union, which creates sustainable transport, have a positive impact on the growth of transport cohabitation. The aim of the study is to analyze the functioning of intermodal railways in Poland in the years 2010-2016. Forecasts have also been developed for this type of transport technology.

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Dopuszczalność drogi sądowej w ustawie o polityce rozwoju

Author(s): Karol Pachnik / Language(s): Polish Issue: 115/2017

Based on the Act on the principles of development Policy, entrepreneurs who applied for bailout from the European Union and to whom the bailout wasn’t granted, may in court, prove their rights. The article shows the scope of admissibility of control by the administrative courts, the legal nature evaluation of the projects based on the case law of the Supreme Administrative Court. The case law in this scope became very important for entrepreneurs and showed easier ways to appeal. The author shows problems in the interpretation of the Act on the principles of the development Policy and problems connected with the application of this Act.

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Zintegrowane Inwestycje Terytorialne jako nowy instrument podejścia terytorialnego w polityce regionalnej

Author(s): Waldemar Sługocki / Language(s): Polish Issue: 115/2017

The article is devoted to the evolution of the European Union's cohesion policy, whose fundamental objective is to enhance the social and economic cohesion of member states, including the changes that have taken place in 2014-2020. Because in this perspective, a number of studies and analyzes have been proposed to change it by giving it a territorial dimension that takes into account the use of endogenous potentials and the specificity of particular territories. The proposed changes should contribute to a fuller use of the potentials for more effective growth, employment and cohesion. The Integrated Development Investment as an element of the new regional policy paradigm has also become a new instrument of development implemented at the level of the European Union. The paper also covers the basic concepts and definitions that have allowed us to define a new dimension of regional policy, taking into account its evolution and its impact on the environment.

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Analytical Futurology as a Tool for Strategic Planning in Social War Games

Author(s): Robert Boroch / Language(s): English Issue: 24/2017

Futurology (also futures studies) is a field of knowledge which has emerged as a result of the interdisciplinary problematisation of specific cognitive issues. The main objective of futurology is the creation of hypothetical scenarios for an alternative future in every aspect of human life, from changes relating to the life of an individual human being to changes within complex social structures, and, ultimately, in e.g. nations. The assumptions of cognitive futurology generally boil down to the maxim „probability and predictability in every aspect of human life”. In other words, the subject of futurological considerations encompasses all products of human activity, both material and abstract. However, here futurology is divided thematically and distinguished in accord with a given specific specialized task, e.g. within the framework of social anthropology (or, broadly understood, cultural studies) as well as of philosophy. Thus, one can point to popular futurology, or the popularization of specific fields of knowledge through science-fiction literature, e.g. The Road (2006) by Cormac McCarthy. In addition to popular futurology, there is also analytical futurology, whose task is to create and analyse alternative futures. The proposed presentation will be devoted to this latter issue as well.

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Przestrzeń aktywnych obywateli

Author(s): Dariusz Śmiechowski,Ewa Buczek / Language(s): Polish Issue: 674/2018

Współzarządzanie przestrzenią łączy się ściśle z pojęciem demokracji obywatelskiej, którą często upraszczamy tylko do uczestnictwa w wyborach swoich reprezentantów. A przecież demokracja może objawiać się właśnie poprzez bezpośrednie współzarządzanie swoim otoczeniem przez obywateli.

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Inny rodzaj piękna - Przestrzeń jako przedmiot moralnej troski

Author(s): Ewa Buczek / Language(s): Polish Issue: 674/2018

Dobre miasto stwarza ludziom przestrzeń do spotkania, pozwala poznawać się w swojej różnorodności. To mieszkańcy są w nim podmiotem. Dlatego papież Franciszek wzywa do większego angażowania ich w procesy decyzyjne. Mieszkańcy muszą mieć poczucie, że miasto ich jednoczy.

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