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№124: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Political Stability of Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Agnieszka Legucka,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Although the Russian army has suffered a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Putin regime does not feel defeated and its stability is not threatened. The ability to control the internal situation allows the Russian authorities to wage war with Ukraine for years to come in order to achieve the assumed strategic goals of subordinating Ukraine and enforcing a buffer zone on the territory of some NATO countries. This requires Western countries to take a long-term approach to deterring the Russian threat and supporting Ukraine’s ability to regain control over lost territory.

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№126: Tandem Faces an Uncertain Future: Franco-German Relations in a Time of War and Inflation

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

The COVID-19 pandemic and the crises caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine represent the most serious test for the Franco-German tandem since the creation of the EU. Leaders in both countries share a conviction of the necessity of mutual cooperation, further increased by the compromise worked out around the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan. However, the catalogue of divergences between France and Germany is long and includes crucial issues such as the shape of the common market, energy policy, and defence. A possible permanent loosening of the tandem may benefit Poland, but only on the condition that the country maintains constructive relations with France and Germany, cooperates well with EU institutions, and correctly diagnoses Polish interests in the areas of the Franco-German dispute.

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№114: Consequences of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine for the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Russia’s revisionist policy, which culminated in the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, tore down the foundations of the Euro-Atlantic security system based on the international law and principles listed in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. Despite Russia’s repeated violations of its commitments, NATO has been unilaterally honouring the Act, including by not stationing permanent substantial combat forces in the eastern part of the Alliance. However, given the current security situation, NATO should declare that it does not feel bound by the self-imposed military limitations of the Act. Honouring them is of no benefit in relations with Russia, impedes a response to the Russian threat, and creates unnecessary risk.

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№133: Options for Securing Free Trade Navigation in the Black Sea

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski,Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal poses again the risk of destabilising the global food market. However, it is a reflection of a much larger problem represented by the Russian year-and-a-half-long blockade of the Black Sea, which has allowed it to gradually weaken Ukraine and drive up the cost of providing it with assistance from foreign partners. The international community should not pursue reactivation of the grain deal, which granted Russia de facto control of Ukrainian exports, and instead, the common objective should be to finally break the Russian blockade and effectively secure maritime trade across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports.

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№211: The Fight for Justice: Ukraine’s Legal Steps in Its Defence Against Russian Aggression

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Through proceedings before international courts, Ukraine seeks to raise the political cost of the Russian military action on its territory and exert diplomatic pressure to force a cessation of hostilities. It also wants to challenge the controversial legal arguments Russia is using to try to justify the 2022 invasion. While future verdicts may provide a basis for reparations, effective enforcement of rights and punishment of perpetrators of crimes committed on Ukrainian territory are likely to succeed only in the long term. Poland and like-minded states can support Ukraine’s legal position and further assist it in documenting crimes and prosecuting suspects.

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Putin’s Address - a Year of War in a Besieged Fortress

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 21 February, Vladimir Putin delivered an address to the Federal Assembly (the joint chamber of the Russian parliament). He repeated his accusations against NATO and the U.S. that they are responsible for the war in Ukraine. His speech was mainly aimed at an internal audience, as he was trying to set them up for a prolonged struggle for Russian victory in Ukraine and to discourage ordinary Russians from dealing with the West.

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What will be the Consequences of Prigozhin’s Death?

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

On 23 August, in Tver Oblast in Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin were likely killed when their airplane crashed. The ends of the leaders of the Wagner Group should be linked to the unsuccessful rebellion carried out by Prigozhin two months ago. As a result of the attack, Vladimir Putin will temporarily strengthen his position, and Prigozhin’s assets will be transferred to the president’s trusted individuals.

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Russia Annexes Four Ukrainian Regions

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia has completed the annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, which belong to Ukraine. Their annexation to Russia is an escalation of the conflict and a blatant violation of international law without legal consequences. Countries supporting Ukraine should underline the illegality of Russia’s actions to persuade developing states that have so far been ambivalent in their stance towards the war to side with Ukraine.

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UN Condemns Russia’s Annexation of Ukrainian Regions

Author(s): Rafał Tarnogórski / Language(s): English

On 10-12 October, another meeting of the 11th emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) was held, this time on the illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions by the Russian Federation. By an overwhelming majority, the UNGA condemned the act, declaring it a violation of international law. The adopted resolution called on all UN member states and international organisations not to recognise Russia’s annexation acts and on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and end its aggression.

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EU Launches Military Assistance Mission in Support of Ukraine

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 17 October, foreign ministers from the Member States decided to launch an EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine. Its main goal will be to train Ukrainian soldiers in both the use of combat equipment and tactical operations. The mission’s deployment on EU territory will ensure the security of the training, while the coordination of the process on the EU side will provide an adequate response to the needs of Ukraine.

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The Military Situation in Ukraine as of the Middle of September

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

On 11 September, thanks to a several-day counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to take control of the Kharkiv region. Fighting is also going on in Kherson Oblast. These actions have raised the morale of the Ukrainian army and society and increased international interest in the war in Ukraine. The further success of Ukraine’s actions will depend on its ability to replenish reserves and increasing Western military support.

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In Defence of the Union’s Values and Economy - State of the Union Address

Author(s): Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

In the annual address on the state of the Union, European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen announced the continuation of support for Ukraine. Though the EC strives to minimise the economic fallout of the Russian aggression, it complicates the implementation of the Union’s projects and is likely to worsen citizens’ living standards.

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Seventh Summit of the Three Seas Initiative, in Riga

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska / Language(s): English

On 20-21 June, the 7th Summit of the Three Seas Initiative (TSI) was held in Riga, attended by representatives of all countries involved in this format. They focused on actions to increase the effectiveness of the TSI and the competitiveness of the region, but also discussed security issues and a commitment to Ukraine, which has been granted participating partner status in the initiative. The importance of TSI cooperation with the U.S. and Germany is also growing. During the summit, the Polish-Latvian Chamber of Commerce was unveiled.

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G7 Summit in Germany - Support for Ukraine and Combating the Global Effects of Russia’s Aggression

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

On 26-28 June, a meeting of the leaders of the G7 countries took place at Elmau Castle in Bavaria. The key topics were the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy and food crisis. The summit showed the group’s consistency with regard to Russia’s aggression and global challenges, although some of the decisions made are not very ambitious. It will be important for the long-term effectiveness of the G7 to involve partners from other parts of the world, including developing countries, which is one reason for the guest participation in the meeting of the leaders of Argentina, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Senegal.

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Deal Signed to Unblock Ukrainian Grain Exports

Author(s): Daniel Szeligowski / Language(s): English

At the initiative of the UN Secretary-General, the countries of Ukraine, Russia, and Türkiye reached an agreement on 22 July to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports. However, the resumption of trade is not a foregone conclusion and will depend primarily on the goodwill of the Russian side, which may sabotage the implementation of the agreement by military means.

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Another U.S. Aid Package for Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 21 April, U.S. President Joe Biden announced further actions aimed at helping Ukraine. The U.S. is constantly pressing its allies to take similar steps, such as the transfer of armaments, including heavy weapons, as well as financial, economic, and humanitarian aid. The U.S. seeks to forge allied unity in order to maintain Russia’s international isolation, both through sanctions and by providing Ukraine with military equipment so it can effectively defend itself.

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Germany on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Jasiński / Language(s): English

After the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the German government began work on diversifying supplies of energy resources and becoming independent from Russia, which will, however, be a long-term process. In the area of security, Germany is emphasising solidarity with its NATO allies and has announced a decision to significantly increase its defence spending. The war in Ukraine has politically strengthened Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who gained in public opinion polls after announcing a change in direction of German policy.

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The Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In recent years, Africa has been an area of particular interest for Russia as a field of rivalry with the West, especially with France, and of military expansion. The invasion of Ukraine will be a test of the durability of the economic, political, and military ties Russia has built on the continent. While only Eritrea openly supported Russia at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), several countries abstained or did not vote. Russia is demonstrating it can still deepen its influence in priority regions, for example, by obtaining approval for a naval base in Sudan.

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Legal Aspects of the Attack on Ukraine

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, carried out with the support of Belarus, is a violation of the norms of international law that form the basis of the international order shaped after the Second World War. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s justifications of the attack are legally questionable and contradictory to facts. There are also violations of humanitarian law being committed in the course of the hostilities, especially concerning the protection of civilians. The aim of the international community should be to stop the aggression and hold accountable states and individuals responsible for these violations.

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EU Reaction to Russia’s Military Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 24-25 February, an extraordinary summit of the European Council (EUCO) took place in Brussels to discuss the EU response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. The EU has adopted strong economic sanctions that will reduce Russia’s financial reserves in the long term. However, they would be more effective if the EU decided to cut off Russian banks immediately from the SWIFT system, a global channel of encrypted communication between financial institutions. This is still an open issue for negotiation between the Member States.

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