Zastosowanie modelu ARIMA do krótkookresowego prognozowania wielkości ruchu pasażerskiego na przykładzie Międzynarodowego Portu Lotniczego w Krakowie
The ARIMA Model for Forecasting Short-term Volume of Passenger Traffic – the Example of International Airport Kraków-Balice

Summary/Abstract: Zastosowanie modelu ARIMA do krótkookresowego prognozowania wielkości ruchu pasażerskiego na przykładzie Międzynarodowego Portu Lotniczego w Krakowie-Balicach The article sought to answer the question of whether the downward spiral of tourist traffic will continue at John Paul II International Airport Kraków-Balice in 2010. A revision of earlier forecasts drawn up at the end of 2009, the study also seeks to determine whether the number of guests served at the airport could return to the record 3 million passengers served in 2007. To this end, I introduce an analysis of the volume of tourist traffic for the years 2003–2009, based on passenger traffic statistics collected by the International Airport. The ARIMA model was used to produce forecasts for 2010. This study is extremely important because, as analysis shows, there is a direct correlation between the volume of passenger traffic at Kraków’s airport and the number of tourists in the city. Therefore, the results of this study may help identify the estimated volume of tourist traffic in Kraków in 2010, which is crucial to the tourism economy of the city and its inhabitants.

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