Series:PISM Policy Papers

№153: How Can NATO Contribute to Ukraine and Georgia’s Border Security?

№153: How Can NATO Contribute to Ukraine and Georgia’s Border Security?

Author(s): Jeffrey Rathke,Daniel Szeligowski,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; OTAN; NATO; Ukraine; Security; East Europe

Conflicts beyond NATO’s borders, such as the Russian occupation of Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia and aggression in Ukraine, pose a threat to the security of NATO’s eastern flank states. Therefore, NATO’s ability to provide security to its members depends on the Alliance cooperating closely with its neighbours. In this respect, Ukraine and Georgia, both of which share borders with NATO members, are of special importance. NATO should build on the experience of its own members, and join ranks with the European Union in order to further support the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Georgia. Enhanced border security should be a key element of such partnerships.

More...

№152: NATO in Libya: A Long-term Plan for Stability

№152: NATO in Libya: A Long-term Plan for Stability

Author(s): Paolo Quercia,Patrycja Sasnal,Julianne Smith,Kurt Volker / Language(s): English

Keywords: Libia; NATO; OTAN; Bezpieczeństwo; Bliski Wschód i Afryka Północna; Security

Never was there a better time for NATO’s involvement in Libya than now. The Government of National Accord (GNA) is the only available option for a more stable future of the country. It has already shown it can deliver by defeating the Islamic State (IS) in Sirte, but without urgent support from the international community it may not be able to show more progress in providing security, reform and services to the Libyan people. Once it receives a request from the GNA, NATO can and should assist in SSR, border control and countering people-smuggling as there is no better placed actor to help Libya in this regard.

More...

№151: EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

№151: EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; visa; Poland; European Union

In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.

More...

№150: Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

№150: Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński,Carolina Salgado / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brazil; Visegrad Group; Poland; European Union; Hungary; Czechia; Slovakia; economy; V4

The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.

More...

№149: The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

№149: The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author(s): Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Bernie Sanders; Donald Trump; Hillary Clinton; Marco Rubio; Ted Cruz; elections

Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defence and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.

More...

№148: Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia

№148: Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; India; Japan; South Korea; ASEAN, Asia; East Asia

Asia could be described as the world’s great construction site, and is already the focus of a scramble for infrastructure projects. Among countries competing for investments are not only China with its Silk Road initiative, but also Korea, Japan, India and ASEAN, which have prepared their own infrastructural strategies. The plethora of initiatives may have a positive impact on Asia, offering diverse solutions to the infrastructural bottleneck and reforms of existing institutions and modes of assistance. But there is also the risk that fierce competition may result in unprofitable projects, while economic slowdown could cause a decline in funding. For Europe these initiatives create opportunities to take part in new projects, but the EU should be aware that the projects will be implemented mainly in Asia and by Asian countries.

More...

№147: Forever on the Periphery? The Return of Geopolitics to EU Enlargement to the Balkans

№147: Forever on the Periphery? The Return of Geopolitics to EU Enlargement to the Balkans

Author(s): Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Balcans; Bosnia and Hercegovina; Croatia; European integration; European Union

At the beginning of 2016, almost 13 years after the Thessaloniki declaration to integrate the Western Balkans into the European Union, Brussels is left with Croatia as a Member State, Montenegro half way, at best, to becoming one, Serbia with first negotiation chapters just opened, and half of the region with no clear prospect of membership. But the wait-and-see approach that the EU had been employing for a number of years towards the enlargement policy in the Balkans1has become even riskier in times of new international challenges. Among them, the ever-growing tensions between the West and Russia should, in particular, serve as motivation for the Union to look at enlargement in the Balkans from a geopolitical angle. Even if the Member States have in recent years shown less enthusiasm towards further rounds of enlargement, this should not discourage the EU institutions from undertaking an active role to revive the European integration process in the Balkans.

More...

№146: How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

№146: How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: ASEAN; Asia; South Asia; East Asia; Economy

The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.

More...

№137: EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check

№137: EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; European Union; international relations

The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.

More...

№136: From Blame Game to Cooperation: EU-Turkey Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis

№136: From Blame Game to Cooperation: EU-Turkey Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Keywords: Syria; Turkey; migration; immigrants

Turkey has generously opened its borders to some two million refugees fleeing the war in Syria. Butmost Syrians in Turkey live in limbo, some in dire conditions, and many have sought refuge in the EUsimply to subsist to survive. Preventing an uncontrolled flow of refugees to the EU requires addressingtheir destitute state and providing them with the possibility to flourish—a responsibility that both theEU and Turkey have avoided until now. At the same time, even with increased international funding,the refugee challenge may be beyond Turkey’s capacity. The EU’s recent response is a positive stepbut is unlikely to suffice in preventing further tragedies. The EU must adopt a genuine policy on thematter, taking into account the two dimensions of Turkey’s reality as both a host and transit countryfor refugees.

More...

№135: AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey

№135: AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kurdish diaspora; Turkey;AKP;

Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has giventhe impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has beenemploying a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snapelection. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging themain Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and haveresulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKPaims to win power in the next election at all costs.

More...

№134: Azerbaijan’s Risky Game between Russia and the West

№134: Azerbaijan’s Risky Game between Russia and the West

Author(s): Kamran Ismayilov,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Azerbaijan;Caucasia; Russia

Azerbaijan recently had to face a wave of criticism from the European institutions (the OSCE and theEuropean Parliament) due to its government’s undemocratic practices. In response, Baku accused itsEuropean partners of Islamophobia and declared the suspension of parliamentary cooperation in theframework of the EU’s Euronest. The Azerbaijani ruling elite also blames the West of supporting a“fifth column” in Azerbaijan (meaning civil society organisations) as well as of giving political support toits arch-enemy Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time authorities in Baku aredisplaying their developing political partnership with Russia. This paper examines the consequences ofthe crisis in relations between the EU and Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani-Russian rapprochement for theprospects for EU-Azerbaijan energy projects and regional security in the South Caucasus.

More...

№133: Border and Migration Management in the East: The Cases of Norway and Poland

№133: Border and Migration Management in the East: The Cases of Norway and Poland

Author(s): Kinga Dudzińska,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Roderick Parkes / Language(s): English

Keywords: immigrants; Norway; Poland; migrations

The migration and refugee situation in Eastern Europe receives comparatively little attention in the EUfor a simple reason: the people displaced by the fighting in eastern Ukraine have tended to stay closeto home or travel to Russia rather than head to the European Union. But eastern migration deservesattention. Migration issues, including questions of population loss, diaspora loyalty and bordermanagement, are gaining real geopolitical significance across Eastern Europe. Moreover, the EU’stechnocratic efforts to leverage access to its labour markets in return for political reform in Ukraine,Moldova and Georgia are becoming increasingly politicised there. This paper therefore sets out somebasic data on the issue. It takes as its case studies the receiving countries Norway and Poland, bothlocated at the external border of the EU, EEA and Schengen zone and next to Russia, and pays specialattention to the question of border management, including small border traffic and migration control,looking particularly at the gender dimension of migration.

More...

№132: Is Three a Crowd? The Kurds, Baghdad and Poland

№132: Is Three a Crowd? The Kurds, Baghdad and Poland

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iraq;Middle East; Poland;Kurdish;

The diplomatic conflict that exists between the government in Baghdad and the Kurdish RegionalGovernment impacts relations of both authorities at the international diplomatic level. As the case ofPolish-Iraqi relations demonstrates, meaningful and effective involvement with the KRG is obstructedand sometimes impossible because of the ongoing Baghdad-Erbil conflict and the continuous possibilityof the KRG seceding from Iraq. With the dynamics of Iraq changing post Maliki, it is important forthese diplomatic relations to change accordingly, both internally and externally, in order to protect theterritorial integrity of Iraq.

More...

№131: The EU’s New Climate Target: Contribution to a Successful Deal in Paris

№131: The EU’s New Climate Target: Contribution to a Successful Deal in Paris

Author(s): Susanne Dröge,Thomas Spencer,Alexandra Deprez,Liz Gallagher,Artur Gradziuk,Andrei Marcu,Sebastian Oberthür / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate; Europe; European Union

In the run up to the Paris climate negotiations, the multilateral community has decided that all countriesshould submit Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The INDCs represent eachcountry’s contribution to the collective effort against climate change....

More...

№130: Foreigners in the Ukrainian Government: A Unique Solution for Challenging Times

№130: Foreigners in the Ukrainian Government: A Unique Solution for Challenging Times

Author(s): Piotr Kościński,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Saakashvili; Georgia; Lithuania; Ukraine; corruption; government

Although it happens rarely, national governments, including those of EU countries, do sometimes hire foreign experts. In Ukraine, employing Georgians from former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration seems to be a logical move. His presidency’s biggest successes were the establishment of well-functioning police and an efficient fight against corruption, something both of which Ukraine badly needs. Other foreigners, including renowned experts such as Ukrainian American Natalie Jaresko and Lithuanian Aivaras Abromavičius, responsible for economic recovery, may be successful but face extremely difficult tasks. As all these figures are affiliated with the West in one way or another, their failure would be interpreted by pro-Kremlin media as a collapse of President Petro Poroshenko’s policies (perceived by Russia as a Western project).

More...

№129: The Best of Both Worlds: The Unexploited Potential of Inter-parliamentary Cooperation in the EU

№129: The Best of Both Worlds: The Unexploited Potential of Inter-parliamentary Cooperation in the EU

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; European Union

During his first visit to Warsaw after re-election as prime minister of the UK, David Cameron found anally in support of one of his ideas to reform the EU. Rafał Trzaskowski, the Polish minister for Europe,speaking on behalf of the Polish government, officially endorsed the British position to strengthennational parliaments in EU policymaking. Yet, the proposals to date either require treaty changes orare merely technical adjustments. In fact, much more could be achieved by enhancing the mechanismsof inter-parliamentary cooperation within the existing scope of the treaties. Although this would playvery well with the current institutional climate of better regulation and more transparency, it alsorequires a genuine political will on the side of EU institutions and Member States, which seem to bethe missing link.

More...

№128: Not Really a Coalition: The U.S.–Turkey Deal on the Fight against the Islamic State

№128: Not Really a Coalition: The U.S.–Turkey Deal on the Fight against the Islamic State

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Syria;Kurdish; ISIS;

Turkey’s decision to open Incirlik airbase to the anti-IS coalition could offer a significant advantage inthe fight against the Islamic State, including cutting it off from outside supplies, and changing theregional parameters. However, statements from the U.S. and Turkey still contradict each other, andtheir divergent priorities could hamper their operational capacity. Turkey’s contribution to the coalitionmay potentially reduce cooperation between the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) inthe anti-IS zone. In addition, the absence of a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’Party (PKK) and the domestic polarisation provide a permissible environment for potential provocationsthat may escalate the violence in Turkey, potentially diminishing its contribution. The U.S. and Turkeystill have to overcome their differences in order to become effective coalition partners.

More...

№127: The Limits and Achievements of Regional Governance in Security: NORDEFCO and the V4

№127: The Limits and Achievements of Regional Governance in Security: NORDEFCO and the V4

Author(s): Pernille Rieker,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; OTAN; Poland; Norway; cooperation

Both Norway and Poland have engaged in regional security and defence cooperation projects:NORDEFCO and the Visegrad Group (V4), respectively. Such initiatives are seen as a promisingmethod for reinforcing military capabilities in a time of deep cuts in defence budgets among the EUMember States. The record of NORDEFCO and the V4 remains, though, rather modest, particularlywhen compared to the ambitious declarations made at their beginnings. Both cooperation formatshave proved effective with regards to less-complicated projects, such as those involving militaryeducation, training or logistics. However, common procurement and real integration in some capabilityareas has turned out to be too difficult. Yet, these failures have helped to identify factors that maymake success more likely, and this result is shared by both NORDEFCO and the V4, despite thestructural differences between these two mechanisms of security governance.

More...

№126: The YPG and the Changing Dynamics of the Fight against IS

№126: The YPG and the Changing Dynamics of the Fight against IS

Author(s): Dylan O’Driscoll / Language(s): English

Keywords: ISIS; Turkey; security; Middle East

Recently, Turkey and the U.S. signed an agreement for Turkey to join the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State (IS, a.k.a. ISIS/ISIL). As part of this agreement an IS-free zone will be created in Syria, but it is not clear yet whether this will encroach on the territory of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main Kurdish armed group operating in Syria. The YPG has been one of the most successful forces on the ground in the fight against IS and despite the changing dynamics it still remains important. However, Turkey’s entry into the battle will lead to every aspect of the YPG being reassessed, as Turkey deems it to be a terrorist organisation. Nonetheless, the YPG still has a significant role to play and abandoning it now could lead to the situation in Syria becoming even more complex.

More...