Series:PISM Policy Papers

№145: Transnistria Zig-zagging towards a DCFTA

№145: Transnistria Zig-zagging towards a DCFTA

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; DCFTA; East Europe; Economy

Although Transnistria, in exchange for meeting certain conditions, was allowed to benefit from the free trade agreement that Moldova signed with the EU, there are plenty of obstacles which could derail the deal. The business community in the breakaway republic is eager to enjoy the fruits of the DCFTA but is reluctant to shoulder the price of necessary reforms, the outgoing leader of the separatist enclave could undermine the agreement for electoral reasons, Russia might be tempted to test the EU’s resolve to defend its trade-related norms, and Moldova could erect bureaucratic barriers for producers from the left bank of the Nistru River. In the light of these many risks, the EU should persistently encourage all sides to stick to their commitments while averting disputes that would undermine enforcement of the DCFTA in Transnistria in a timely manner.

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№144: The EU-Turkey Deal on Refugees: How to Move Forward

№144: The EU-Turkey Deal on Refugees: How to Move Forward

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; immigrants; European Union; EU

Since the EU-Turkey deal on refugees on 29 November, there has not been a significant reduction in the numbers of migrants crossing into the EU from Turkey. One of the main reasons is probably lack of trust between Turkey and European Commission in their readiness to keep promises. EU can break the impasse by offering Schengen visa liberalisation but at the same time should use the accession negotiations to exert greater pressure on Ankara.

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№143: Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

№143: Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

Author(s): Piotr Kościński / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; migration; EU; European Union

At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.

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№142: Australia’s Asylum and Migration Policy: Lessons to Apply to the European Refugee Crisis

№142: Australia’s Asylum and Migration Policy: Lessons to Apply to the European Refugee Crisis

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Australia; migration; society

Australia has a long history of immigration, including accepting refugees. Over the years, it has developed mechanisms and instruments that aim not only to help people in need but also to provide for the country’s stability and prosperity. However, in recent years some elements of Australia’s refugee policy, especially its approach towards the so-called boat people, have come under fire. Nevertheless, the solutions implemented by Australia should be part of the EU’s efforts to find ones useful for dealing with its current migration crisis.

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№141: Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy

№141: Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy

Author(s): Victoria Bucătaru,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; economy; Chisinau

Leading up to the formation of Moldova’s third government since elections a year ago, Chisinau faces not only political and macro-financial instability, but also suffers from a severe trust deficit in relations with external partners, some of which have suspended aid flows this year. If Moldova was once the most advanced Eastern Partnership state in terms of aid coordination, government ownership of the process has significantly weakened as a result of the protracted political crisis. Although donors continue to cooperate among themselves via well-established channels, participation by state institutions is currently limited. Once the political setting is stabilised, the government will need to go to great lengths to regain the trust of its external partners and re-establish donor coordination. This is fundamental if Moldova is to make the best use of assistance in order to recover its finances quickly.

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№140: The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?

№140: The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; security; Eastern Europe; Russia; conflicts

For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly aproper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance inDonbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assumethat military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed torepel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in adisadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and socialturmoil in Ukraine. To minimise the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S.should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and upholdthe Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the restof Ukraine.

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№139: Momentum Not to Be Wasted: Aid Coordination in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine

№139: Momentum Not to Be Wasted: Aid Coordination in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Eastern Europe; help

Since the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine has seen an unprecedented boom in external assistance insupport of reforms, which needs to be synchronised appropriately in order to be effective. Althoughmost of the structures and mechanisms for aid coordination have been conceived, they still need to beset in motion, and this requires time. For the system to be functional, the donors should improvecoordination at a planning stage (especially those large donors with strict development agendas), whilethe Ukrainian government has to enhance its capacities for implementation of the reforms as a matterof urgency. The present set of 18 reform priorities also needs to be narrowed down further, to focuson the most urgent needs.

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№138: Who Are They? Two Profiles of Syrian Refugees

№138: Who Are They? Two Profiles of Syrian Refugees

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: immigrants; Europe; Syria; society

Syrians constitute the biggest national group migrating to Europe in 2015, according to Frontex. Of allthe social diversity within a single society, two generalised profiles of a Syrian refugee can be inferredfrom available information: a poorer, rural worker based in camps in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon, anda richer, middle-class professional living outside of refugee camps, recently migrating to Europe via theGreece and Western Balkans route. While Europe has so far received the best of the Syrian society,poorer Syrians may also be on the move without an immediate and substantial improvement ofeducational infrastructure and their legal labour market status in host countries.

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№117: How the Crimean Tatars Spoil Putin’s Annexation Myth

№117: How the Crimean Tatars Spoil Putin’s Annexation Myth

Author(s): Justyna Prus,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Crimea;Crimea annexation; Russia; Ukraine; society

The annexation of Crimea has been a propaganda gain for the Kremlin, helping to augment supportfor the ruling elites. However, the protests of minorities opposing the annexation—Crimean Tatars andUkrainians—has prompted Russians to begin harsh repressions. On May 18, the Crimean Tatarscommemorate the anniversary of the Stalinist deportation of their nation in 1944, which led to massdeaths among the deported population. Although the Crimean Tatars are a relatively small minority atthe peninsula, they are politically well organised and will not accept the Kremlin’s praise of the Soviet(including Stalinist) era, or the current authoritarian system based on neo-imperial and neo-Sovietideology.

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№116: Turkey’s Rise as a Reluctant Ally Faced with the Russian Threat

№116: Turkey’s Rise as a Reluctant Ally Faced with the Russian Threat

Author(s): Pinar Elman / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; Russia; international relations

While actively contributing to NATO exercises and operations that confirm Turkey’s commitmentto the Alliance, Ankara has also actively avoided cooperating with the Western political andeconomic efforts to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine. Turkey’s low-level involvement, shaped bysecurity concerns, economic needs, yet at the same time its consolidating dependence on Moscow,and its optimistic opportunism, increasingly raise concerns about possible prospects of a Turkish pivotaway from the Euro-Atlantic community. But even while distancing itself from NATO, it may be inTurkey’s interests to rebalance its policy by supporting the stability of Ukraine and closer cooperationwith the EU.

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№115: Prospects for Polish–U.S. Defence Industrial Cooperation

№115: Prospects for Polish–U.S. Defence Industrial Cooperation

Author(s): Anna Pochylska,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; USA; security

With the decision to select Patriot as its next medium-range air and missile defence system, Poland is launching a programme considered the most important one out of the $35 billion Armed Forces Technical Modernisation Plan for the years 2013–2022. The sheer value of the contract ($4–6 bln), its strategic and operational significance, and the technologies involved, are all enough to make it a hot topic in popular debates. But this programme is special also because it involves a U.S. contractor, which will be responsible for providing key technologies. While Poland has long been gravitating towards closer defence political ties with the United States, it has also been particularly anxious with regards to defence cooperation with Washington, even despite the fact that the U.S. became the top importer of Polish defence materiel. To make the most out of the AMD selection, and any other possible programmes that may be won by a U.S. contractor, Poland should drop unrealistic or simply false assumptions regarding defence industrial cooperation with the U.S. and push the envelope of collaboration, wherever it is possible, while limiting its ambitions where they are exaggerated.

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№114: Russia’s Use of History as a Political Weapon

№114: Russia’s Use of History as a Political Weapon

Author(s): Justyna Prus / Language(s): English

Keywords: history; democracy; Russia; Europe; Eurasia

Russia’s use of history as a political weapon may have long term negative consequences. Themanipulated narrative will be difficult to reverse and, could lead to an even more confrontationalattitude towards immediate neighbours and the West. Western countries cannot remain passive. Tocounter Russian historical propaganda, they will have to adopt and effectively use the narrative basedon truth and common values.

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№112: Mobile EU Citizens or Migrants? Assessing the Polish Diaspora in Norway

№112: Mobile EU Citizens or Migrants? Assessing the Polish Diaspora in Norway

Author(s): Marta Stormowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: migration; Norway; Poland

Between 2004 and 2014, the number of Poles in Norway grew tenfold. Poles have become the biggestminority in Norway, bringing economic benefits for both countries but also social challenges. Whereasthe effects of migration for sending and receiving countries differ, there are many areas in whichcooperation could bring mutual benefits. Such cooperation based on the respect of the fundamentalfreedom of EU citizens’ free access to the labour market should lead to better integration of migrants.However, the biggest challenge in this respect lies in embracing the diversity of flows occurring withinthe free movement framework, ranging from short term stays to permanent settlements.

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№111: Towards China’s Great Power Diplomacy under Xi Jinping

№111: Towards China’s Great Power Diplomacy under Xi Jinping

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; Asia; domestic policy; diplomacy

Under the fifth generation of leaders, a conceptual shift in China’s foreign policy is becomingabundantly apparent. Xi Jinping is more clearly jettisoning long-standing Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policydictum of “hide and bide,” calling for big power diplomacy and a great revitalisation of the Chinesenation. This is not merely rhetoric. China is becoming more active in its closest neighbourhood andAsia, and is expanding its influence worldwide. Apart from coining new diplomatic catchphrases to winhearts and minds, China is establishing new institutions as an alternative to the Western-led globalarchitecture, to reflect its ascendancy and normative power.

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№110: Civil Society Networks in the EU Integration of

№110: Civil Society Networks in the EU Integration of

Author(s): Bojan Elek,Ljiljana Ubović,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Serbia; society; Balkans; democracy; domestic policy; Europe; European integration; European Union

Countries wishing to accede to the EU must involve civil society organisations (CSOs) actively in theprocess. In Serbia, in order to champion their effectiveness in cooperation with the government, theCSOs gathered in networks, and the three main, nationwide ones have proven to be of greatestrelevance. The National Convention on the EU covers all 35 negotiation chapters, the Sectoral CivilSociety Organisations group is involved in pre-accession funds distribution, while prEUgovor focusesexclusively on the hottest potato in the negotiations, which concerns chapters 23 and 24. Although ingeneral terms the legal basis and good practices for such collaboration are established, moreunderstanding of the government’s approach to the CSOs is needed in order to achieve visible benefits.

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№109: Never Ending Crisis—Prospects for the Belarusian Economy

№109: Never Ending Crisis—Prospects for the Belarusian Economy

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Kacper Wańczyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Eastern Europe; economy; Europe; society

During 2014, the Belarusian economy experienced serious problems, which were deepened by thecrisis in Russia. Further deterioration of the economic situation in Russia and Belarus’ other tradepartners such as Ukraine mean that 2015 could be much worse. That is why the Belarusianauthorities need external financial support, although this need is still not forcing them to conductstructural reforms. Moreover, as presidential elections are planned for November, the president,Aliaksandr Lukashenka will traditionally try to postpone reforms and impose pro-social policies.

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№108: Neither “NATO’s Foreign Legion” Nor the “Donbass International Brigades:” (Where Are All the) Foreign Fighters in Ukraine?

№108: Neither “NATO’s Foreign Legion” Nor the “Donbass International Brigades:” (Where Are All the) Foreign Fighters in Ukraine?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: armed forces; society; Ukraine; conflict; Eastern Europe; Europe; Security

The conflict in Ukraine continues to attract global attention. Moreover, foreigners are also involved in actual combat in the eastern part of the country. Russians, be they soldiers or volunteers, are the dominant foreign group in the war zone. Others, mostly Europeans, constitute neither “NATO’s foreign legion” nor the “Donbass international brigades,” as their numbers likely do not exceed 300 on either side of the conflict. Interestingly enough, many of these European foreign fighters share common ideological roots, i.e., anti-Americanism, anti-liberalism, extreme nationalism, fascination with authoritarianism, rejection of European integration, but these do not, however, stop them from taking opposing sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They, as a group or as lone individuals, might constitute a threat to European security and must be closely monitored.

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№107: Can Ukraine Mimic Poland’s Transition? The Limits of Its Latest Economic Changes

№107: Can Ukraine Mimic Poland’s Transition? The Limits of Its Latest Economic Changes

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; economy; Europe; Poland

Once again, Ukraine has a chance to transform its economic system and build a democratic capitalist one. It is tempting to say that Central European countries such as Poland in particular constitute a good pattern for Kyiv’s reforms. However, this time will be different in many respects, and simply re-running an older plan will not work.

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№106: The Black Box of European Legislation: The Motivation (or Lack of It) behind Transparency in EU Policymaking

№106: The Black Box of European Legislation: The Motivation (or Lack of It) behind Transparency in EU Policymaking

Author(s): Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Commission; European Union; EU institutions; Europe; transparency

One of the political ambitions of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and his first vice-president, Frans Timmermans, is to push for more openness in European Union policymaking. However, the improvements they propose are substantially undermined by opaque decision-making procedures and the lack of consistency in EU institutional culture. The open-governance drive is also stymied by fears among the Member States that too much disclosure might diminish effective policymaking there. Yet, if the EU does not understand that it needs to present a unified approach to transparency vis-à-vis its citizens, it will never evolve into a genuine political union.

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№105: Governance of the Free Movement of EU Citizens: Weathering the Storm of Politicisation

№105: Governance of the Free Movement of EU Citizens: Weathering the Storm of Politicisation

Author(s): Alex Lazarowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Migrations; Europe; European Union; international cooperation; Norway; Poland

Despite the limited mobility of EU citizens across the European Economic Area, let alone that of migrants, this cherished right has found itself at the centre of political debates in Europe. As illustrated by the key cases debated, and against the backdrop of a rise of populist solutions, one cannot expect a complete overhaul of the free movement framework. All in all, intra-EU mobility for EU citizens and migrants has not been changed as such, only certain provisions have been specified. To this end, bilateral cooperation between sending and receiving countries gains in importance. Cooperation between Norway and Poland, especially on integration, could help depoliticise the debate, and ensure the continued success of Polish workers in Norway.

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