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№161: Towards a “New Era” in China’s Great Power Diplomacy

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; foreign policy; Xi Jinping; diplomacy; international relations;

In his first term, Chinese leader Xi Jinping abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy dictum of “keeping a low profile.” But China’s activism in the middle of Xi’s first term was still more reactive than creative. However, in the last two years a new phase of diplomacy has emerged, in which all actions are subordinated to China’s unchanging strategic foreign policy goal of regaining its superpower status. This means that China strives to enforce change in the global system, which is dominated by the West. The PRC is already trying to introduce new standards for international relations and promotes its values and principles more aggressively worldwide. There are already examples that Xi is effectively implementing his ideas.

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№162: Austria in Central Europe: The Aspiration to Become a Bridge-Builder

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Austria; Central Europe; European Union; government; regional cooperation; development of transport infrastructure; European integration of Western Balkans;

Austria’s government has declared it will be a bridge-builder in the European Union between its western and eastern members. This is in fact rather more an endorsement of the Union cohesion on the eve of Austria’s presidency of the EU Council than a genuine offer to represent the Visegrad states’ interests in the EU. Vienna is also trying to strengthen its position in Central Europe using regional cooperation initiatives such as the Slavkov Triangle, Three Seas Initiative, and the V4+ format. However, Austria’s pro-Russia stances and economic conflicts of interest have burdened relations with regional partners. Common goals remain limited but include the development of transport infrastructure, an endorsement of the European integration of the Western Balkans and strengthening the EU’s external borders.

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№165: Nord Stream 2: Inconvenient Questions

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Marcin Terlikowski,Bartosz Wiśniewski,Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Nord Stream 2; European Union; Russian gas pipeline; natural gas supply; Russia’s position of European energy market;

As the European Union faces a range of pressing challenges, there is one issue that merits special attention: The Russian gas pipeline running on the Baltic Sea seabed. Although it is often portrayed as “purely commercial”, the purpose of Nord Stream 2 is anything but that. It is intended to rewrite the politics of natural gas supply to Europe for years to come and to solidify Russia’s position on the EU gas market. Beyond economic and market considerations, a number of issues leave no doubt that the “blue fuel”, rather than becoming an increasingly tradable commodity, remains one of Russia’s principal instruments of pressure and coercion, both political and economic.

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№166: How Russian Violations of the 1997 Founding Act Influence NATO-Russia Relations

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk,Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Russian Federation; NATO-Russia Founding Act; NATO-Russia relations; security and defence; cooperation;

The NATO-Russia Founding Act adopted in 1997 reflected the consensus within the Alliance that new security architecture in Europe should be based on three pillars: enlargement of transformed NATO, European integration and partnership with Russia. Self-limitation on the stationing and deployment of troops in the territories of new NATO members was conditioned upon Russia’s observance of the rule-based order. After the annexation of Crimea, the Allies decided to respect the spirit of the Founding Act to limit the risk of escalation and defend the security system Russia is interested in derailing. The Allies, however, should adopt a less dogmatic approach to NRFA, which would offer additional flexibility in strengthening NATO’s cohesion and influencing Russian calculations.

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№167: The Importance of Russia’s Second-Generation Elite

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russian Federation; young generation of Russian leaders; Russian elites; political system; second-generation elite;

The appointment of Dmitry Patrushev, the son of the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, to a ministerial post is a symbol of the ongoing shift of power to a younger generation of Russian leaders. A growing group of so-called “Kremlin Kids” hold significant, even though not visible, positions in the power structures, enabling Russian elites to maintain influence and control through personal and family links. Such a controlled transition will augment a political system that has the features of a kleptocracy and clan-like organisation. For Western countries, it is a signal that Russia’s strategic goal of enforcing the change in the European security system will be continued.

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№168: Recalibration of China’s Policy towards WANA: Greater Political and Security Cooperation?

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; regional policy; West Asia; North Africa; economic cooperation; security cooperation;

China’s policy towards the region it terms West Asia and North Africa (WANA) used to focus on economic cooperation, but since Xi Jinping took power in 2012, political and security matters have been gaining importance. China’s main goal remains to build its position as the region’s key partner, creditor, investor, and contributor to their development. As such, China is now seeking to challenge U.S. interests and even gradually replace it as the key stakeholder in WANA. To secure its own key interests and reduce terrorism threats, China is also seriously considering the possibility of the use of force in the WANA region.

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№169: “Tell China’s Stories Well”: Implications for the Western Narrative

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; globalization; rule of law; Xi Jinping;

Under Xi Jinping, the PRC is pursuing the campaign “tell China’s stories well”. This multifaceted program is intended to refute negative stereotypes about China and spread its narrative across the globe. Under this umbrella, China promotes its own expressions in Chinese to disseminate their true spirit, uses existing Western concepts (e.g., globalisation) and universal values (e.g., rule of law) but with a distorted meaning, and tries to establish its own concepts (e.g., a community of shared destiny) to be acknowledged worldwide. The goal is to gradually phase out the existing global narrative and replace it with Chinese ideas as a means of shaping a China-led discourse.

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№170: High Representative Federica Mogherini: Her Role and Performance in the EU Neighbourhood

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: Federica Mogherini; high representative; European Union; international relations; migrations; United Nations;

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s top diplomat, has strengthened coordination over EU external affairs but has not managed to make a significant impact in Europe’s closest neighbourhood. She succeeded in the speedy launch of the EU naval operation in the Mediterranean and the development of partnerships with several Sub-Saharan countries concerning migration, but in the case of the conflicts in Libya and Syria, the EU remained dependent on UN-led mediation. In relations with the eastern neighbourhood, Mogherini was side-lined by the Member States, which did not perceive her as an honest broker on Russian affairs. The next High Representative should make improvements in these areas while also following Mogherini’s path of close cooperation with the European Commission and other stakeholders.

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№171: China and the Challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Value Chains, 5G, and Emerging Markets

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: People’s Republic of China; fourth industrial revolution; value chains; 5G; emerging markets; innovations; growth of Chinese economy; cyber power;

China has identified the ongoing digital revolution as its first opportunity in modern times to compete with other international actors, especially the U.S. The competition serves as the driving force for enhancing innovation and finding new sources of growth for the Chinese economy. The advantage of technological development is that it will allow China to become a “major cyber power,” introduce its own technological standards worldwide, raise its position in global value chains, and influence the world economy. But the process is seriously challenged by the change in China’s relations with the U.S., concerns in the EU about Chinese investments as well as domestic centralisation of power.

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№172: Future of Europe: No Common Vision on the Horizon

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Future of Europe; European Union; Brexit; EU Member States; reforms; Eurozone; migration policy; integration process;

The debate about the future of Europe, reinvigorated by Brexit, has revealed important divergences between the Member States. France has largely set the agenda of the debate but failed to mobilise decisive support for most of its proposals. Despite some joint Franco-German initiatives, there is also clearly significant disagreement within the tandem. It will be difficult to find compromise on the most controversial reforms, such as those related to the eurozone and migration policy. Muddling through will probably remain the dominant feature of the integration process.

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№173: Turkey’s Soft-Power Crisis in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Turkey; crisis in Africa; soft power; South Sahara; Turkish-oriented local elites; African governments; neutrality of Turkey;

Since the 1990s, Turkey has been developing its soft power in Africa to support its economic and political expansion south of the Sahara. Schools and other institutions associated with the Fethullah Gülen movement (Hizmet) were instrumental in building Turkish-oriented local elites, raising interest in Turkish culture, and building Turkey’s image as synonymous with success. However, the fallout from the 2016 coup attempt in Ankara marked the definitive end of the synergy between Hizmet and the Turkish state. This created a new context in which Turkey’s pressures and direct interference in African governments’ affairs accompany a revision of its soft-power instruments. In times of increasing competition for influence on the continent, disillusionment about the neutrality of Turkey and other authoritarian newcomers to Africa—Russia, United Arab Emirates—raises the appeal of the EU as a partner.

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№174: A Challenge for EU Public Diplomacy in India: Why the Union Needs a Europe House

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; public diplomacy; India; strategic partnership; cooperation with India;

A series of crises affecting the EU since 2008, in particular Brexit, have strengthened India’s view of the bloc as an organisation with a diminishing role in the world. The lack of knowledge and underestimation of the EU are important barriers to deepening the strategic partnership and accelerating cooperation with India, which are objectives of the EU strategy towards India adopted in December 2018. To succeed, the EU would need to improve its image and intensify public and cultural diplomacy. The establishment of a Europe House in New Delhi, as an institution promoting cooperation and knowledge of the Union, could play an important role in this.

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№175: The Von der Leyen Commission: Searching for Balance in Europe

Author(s): Marta Makowska,Melchior Szczepanik,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Ursula von der Leyen; European Commission; geopolitics; EU’s role in world; political balance;

In the increasingly politically fragmented Union, the new European Commission (EC) led by Ursula von der Leyen will be a more collegial institution, as the president finds herself obliged to share power with a trio of influential executive vice-presidents. Seeking to cement the initially fragile support for her, she built a team of commissioners with the aim of maintaining a balance in terms of the political influence of various actors and the approach to policies. With the call for a “geopolitical Commission”, she aimed to unite the bloc around the objective of boosting the EU’s role in the world. Von der Leyen’s success will depend on her ability to translate the general political balance into concrete proposals that will bridge the internal divides.

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№176: Can Aid Solve the Root Causes of Migration? A Framework for Future Research on the Development-Migration Nexus

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Henriette U. Erstad,Morten Bøås,Jolanta Szymańska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Migrations; causes of migrations; European Union; migration policy; refugee and migration management;

An important dimension of the European Union’s response to the 2015 refugee and migration management crisis has been to address the root causes of irregular migration. A major tool the EU has to mitigate push factors of migration is development assistance. Yet, the literature shows that the casual relationship between aid and migration is complex and far from obvious. This article summarises the ongoing debates and major findings concerning the development-migration nexus in order to better inform policymakers about the potential risks and shortcomings of using aid in migration management. It suggests a framework for future research on what kind of assistance might work, for whom, and where.

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№177: NATO Deterrence and Arms Control Policy in a World without the INF Treaty

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Łukasz Kulesa,Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; arms control policy; INF Treaty; Russian missile threat; European Union; security and defence;

To maintain effective deterrence and internal cohesion in a post-INF Treaty world, especially in the face of the growing Russian missile threat to Europe, NATO needs to act in two areas. To enhance its military posture, the Alliance ought to quickly mobilise available defensive and offensive capabilities, plan and exercise their use, and be ready to further adjust its posture in the future. This includes studying the military rationale to deploy conventionally armed ground-launched intermediate-range missiles. To adapt its arms-control policy, NATO members should identify Russia’s most destabilising missile systems, both existing and prospective, and propose arms-control initiatives aimed at limiting them. Although the likelihood of achieving new agreements with Russia is currently low, a more proactive NATO arms-control position could help shape the discussion in the longer term and counter Russian efforts to divide the Alliance.

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№187: Morocco’s Religious Diplomacy Drives Its Expansion in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: Morocco; Africa; religion; diplomacy; foreign policy;

Under Mohammed VI, Morocco has developed an original way of gaining influence in SubSaharan Africa: religious diplomacy. Led by the king personally, it exploits traditional and new channels of influence and has proved effective in re-establishing Morocco’s political role on regional and pan-African levels. It also strengthened the African vector of its economic expansion and may become an important part of the security equation in the Sahel.

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№209: Strategic Compass: Towards EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence

Author(s): Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; space strategy; security; defence; foreign policy;

Although the EU’s flagship space systems are civilian in nature, they are increasingly being used for crisis management or foreign missions and operations. The pursuit of strategic autonomy of the Union, that is the ability to react independently to certain threats, will therefore depend on the development of space technologies. However, further enhancing the EU’s capabilities requires a precise definition of the links between the space sector and security. It also will be crucial for Polish enterprises operating in the space industry that the EU designates priority investment areas where they can benefit.

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№182: “The Decline of the U.S.”: The Chinese Discourse on Post-pandemic Relations with the United States

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; China; post-pandemic relations; COVID-19; foreign policy;

The official Chinese discourse on relations with the United States focuses on presenting the pandemic as a critical failure of the Americans in power efficiency and global leadership. China showcases its own achievements in dealing with COVID-19 to strengthen the impression that Chinese solutions for dealing with international challenges are better than the American. At the same time, to avoid a sudden deterioration in relations with the U.S., which would endanger the development of its potential, China repeats its dedication to reach a compromise with the United States. The damaging effect current American policy has on transatlantic relations and multilateral initiatives makes China count more on Trump’s re-election than a Biden victory.

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№183: Austria’s Modus Operandi: Variable Neutrality in Action

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Keywords: Austria; modus operandi; neutrality; foreign policy;

Austria’s 65-year-old neutrality has been preserved through political consensus and growing public support. Over the years it has been a source of prestige for the country but also intense internal debate, especially before entering the EU or the establishment of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). Nowadays, it serves not only as a catchphrase for politicians but also as a political tool used internally and externally to secure Austria’s interest. In the internal dimension, it is used to legitimise various policies while in the latter case, its aim is to influence global affairs or to force better relations with other states, even at the expense of the country’s reputation as “permanently neutral.”

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№184: Ahead of the 2021 EU-Africa Summit, Africa Looks East Once Again

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Africa; summit; East; foreign policy;

The upcoming EU-Africa Summit is expected to roll out a remodelled version of the intercontinental partnership. However, since “market for partnerships” on the continent continues to expand, particularly with non-Western states, the success of any major joint EU-Africa undertaking (in green transition, digital transformation, etc.) will depend on its attractiveness in comparison to the UAE, Turkish, Indian, Chinese, Russian or Japanese alternatives. In this regard, the EU policy proposals must be assessed from the perspective of an African leader who navigates between various partnerships, initiatives and projects, and calculates their weight, relevancy, seriousness of commitments, money allocated, and strings attached.

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Series:PISM Policy Papers

№161: Towards a “New Era” in China’s Great Power Diplomacy

№162: Austria in Central Europe: The Aspiration to Become a Bridge-Builder

№165: Nord Stream 2: Inconvenient Questions

№166: How Russian Violations of the 1997 Founding Act Influence NATO-Russia Relations

№167: The Importance of Russia’s Second-Generation Elite

№168: Recalibration of China’s Policy towards WANA: Greater Political and Security Cooperation?

№169: “Tell China’s Stories Well”: Implications for the Western Narrative

№170: High Representative Federica Mogherini: Her Role and Performance in the EU Neighbourhood

№171: China and the Challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Value Chains, 5G, and Emerging Markets

№172: Future of Europe: No Common Vision on the Horizon

№173: Turkey’s Soft-Power Crisis in Africa

№174: A Challenge for EU Public Diplomacy in India: Why the Union Needs a Europe House

№175: The Von der Leyen Commission: Searching for Balance in Europe

№176: Can Aid Solve the Root Causes of Migration? A Framework for Future Research on the Development-Migration Nexus

№177: NATO Deterrence and Arms Control Policy in a World without the INF Treaty

№187: Morocco’s Religious Diplomacy Drives Its Expansion in Africa

№209: Strategic Compass: Towards EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence

№182: “The Decline of the U.S.”: The Chinese Discourse on Post-pandemic Relations with the United States

№183: Austria’s Modus Operandi: Variable Neutrality in Action

№184: Ahead of the 2021 EU-Africa Summit, Africa Looks East Once Again