Series:PISM Policy Papers

№125: The Evolution of U.S. Immigration Policy: Implications for Poland

№125: The Evolution of U.S. Immigration Policy: Implications for Poland

Author(s): Piotr Plewa / Language(s): English

Keywords: migration; USA; Mexico; Poland

Over the course of the last 50 years, migration to the United States has transformed from Europeanto Latin American, and predominantly Mexican. Increased legal migration from Latin America has beencoupled with increased unauthorised entries from the region. The major challenges facing U.S.policymakers concern their ability to prevent unauthorised entries and the repatriation or integration ofthose already in the country. With decreased legal and unauthorised immigration rates, Poland has lostthe potential to affect U.S. migration policymaking. Hence, it is worthwhile to assess whether thelimited benefits stemming from visa-free travel to the U.S. would justify the increase in invested politicalcapital required to secure one of Poland’s traditional foreign policy goals.

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№124: A Post-Crisis Eurozone: Still an Attractive Offer for Central Europe

№124: A Post-Crisis Eurozone: Still an Attractive Offer for Central Europe

Author(s): Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: crisis; Euro; EU; European Union;

The economic crisis led the eurozone to become a more deeply integrated area. The redesign of its institutional architecture significantly changes the perception of the costs and benefits of the membership of the zone. In this regard, the Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) are reassessing the effects of eurozone accession, by reviewing the set of arguments for and against further integration. The overall result of this review is still in favour of further integration, but successful accession requires comprehensive preparations from the candidates.

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№123: Still a “Strategic” EU–NATO Partnership? Bridging Governance Challenges through Practical Cooperation

№123: Still a “Strategic” EU–NATO Partnership? Bridging Governance Challenges through Practical Cooperation

Author(s): John Todd / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; OTAN; Poland; Norway; Security

The EU and NATO share a common interest in responding effectively to threats posed by Russia in the east and by Islamic extremist to the south of Europe. However, bilateral issues and the pursuit of national interests, especially those involving Cyprus and Turkey, as well as a general lack of strategic convergence have limited the effectiveness of both organisations’ crisis-management capabilities. In times of a deteriorating security environment these limitations will be even more detrimental for Euro-Atlantic security. Poland and Norway, participants in both the EU and NATO missions and two principal countries of the GoodGov project are well positioned to break this institutional deadlock.

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№122: Afghan National Army: Improved but Still in Need of Massive Support

№122: Afghan National Army: Improved but Still in Need of Massive Support

Author(s): Beata Górka-Winter / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; security;

After more than a decade of international military assistance in Afghanistan, the newly created AfghanNational Security Forces are still facing several daunting challenges, including the need to stabilise astill volatile security situation and sustain a sufficient level of manpower. The latter, in particular, mayprove to be extremely difficult, as statistics show that the ranks of the Afghan National Army (ANA)are shrinking dramatically. On the one hand, many independent assessments show that the ANA hasreached a high level of maturity and efficiency in combating the insurgency (as demonstrated by theANA recently when parliament was attacked by the Taliban). Moreover, the armed forces also receivea level of social support unprecedented in the modern history of Afghanistan. On the other hand, theunstable political situation, a potential loss of financial support from donors, and the re-emergence ofmilitias that, under the command of warlords, act as parallel security forces in Afghanistan, may resultin the progressive disintegration of the ANA, depriving it of the strong mandate given to it by theAfghan population.

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№121: Ready to Go? ISIS and Its Presumed Expansion into Central Asia

№121: Ready to Go? ISIS and Its Presumed Expansion into Central Asia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Arkadiusz Legieć,Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: terrorism; security; ISIS; Middle East;

Although Central Asian states are vulnerable to the activities of radical Islamic organisations due to theweaknesses of their political and social systems—marked by authoritarianism, corruption, nepotism,and ethnic and religious tension, as well as their poor economic circumstances—interest in ISIS amongtheir citizens remains low. These states so far also have not become an area of interest for ISIS,although that may change. When some people in these countries do leave for Syria and Iraq, theirdecision is not rooted just in poverty but also in social exclusion and poor religious education. At thesame time, citizens of far more affluent and often far less authoritarian European and Middle Easterncountries travel in higher numbers to Syria to join ISIS. Nonetheless, a potential increase in thepopularity of radical Islamist factions will not only be a problem for the five countries of the region,where the authorities will try to use the phenomenon to strengthen their special services and raisefunds for border protection, but also for Russia, especially since people from Central Asia are mainlyrecruited to ISIS on Russian territory and traverse it to reach the battlefields. Russia, therefore, willcontinue to support its neighbours in the fight against such organisations by helping to strengthenborder control, support for local special services and by CSTO Rapid Reaction Forces. The EuropeanUnion and the United States should offer not only intelligence support and assistance in protectingthese borders against this threat but also economic programmes and development assistance that canbe used to decrease the factors that may contribute to the radicalisation of those living in Central Asia.

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№120: Financing Climate Actions: Key to a Paris Agreement?

№120: Financing Climate Actions: Key to a Paris Agreement?

Author(s): Marek Jan Wasiński / Language(s): English

Keywords: climate; economy; finance

The Paris Climate Conference to be held in December may be the last chance to deliver a globalagreement on tackling climate change. One issue that could be a game-changer for the negotiationsand one that is inevitable to achieve global climate goals is so-called climate finance. The existingframework does not provide enough predictability and capacity to limit global warming to a maximumof 2°C. A clear mechanism for gathering public funds from developed countries and the inclusion ofprivate investments is needed to secure reliable post-2020 climate actions.

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№119: Georgia after the Riga Eastern Partnership Summit

№119: Georgia after the Riga Eastern Partnership Summit

Author(s): Teona Turashvili,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia;Eastern Partnership;Caucasia;

With the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga set for 21–22 May, Georgia is seen as one of the mostadvanced EaP members in terms of adoption of European standards. The country is quite successful interms of building a democratic and transparent state, which is both rare and sets an importantprecedent in the post-Soviet region. Still, such positive changes in Georgia are not irreversible, andmany reforms are only at the initial stage. The EU should offer more support, and encourage thegovernment in Tbilisi in reforming state institutions. Priority should be given to the justice sector, publicadministration, and local government in order to secure democratic governance and a fair politicalenvironment for further transformation. Moreover, the EU should also increase support for Georgia’scivil society, which is the most efficient “whistle-blower” in the event of bad practices such ascorruption, cronyism or use of prosecutors and the judiciary against political opponents.

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№118: Back to the Difficult Past: Central and Eastern Europe’s Relationship with Russia

№118: Back to the Difficult Past: Central and Eastern Europe’s Relationship with Russia

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; Eastern Europe; Eurasia

The revolution in Ukraine has shown that the difficult history of Central and Eastern Europe ended neither with the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor with the enlargement of the European Union to the east. Moreover, Russia’s violent reaction in the form annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in Donbas has set in motion a number of political processes, which have not only shaken international relations in Central and Eastern Europe, but have also shown the countries in the region that stability in this part of Europe is not a given. Thus, these countries, the vast majority of which are members of the European Union and NATO, face a serious problem regarding the further evolution of relations with Russia, not only in the political or economic dimension, but also in the military sphere.

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№096: Choosing our Geography: 12 Points to Restore Meaning to the Eastern Partnership

№096: Choosing our Geography: 12 Points to Restore Meaning to the Eastern Partnership

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Roderick Parkes,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Partnership; European Union

The EU is inevitably a geopolitical player, but it seeks to avoid fulfilling this role by all means. This has resulted in increased instability in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region. In order to bring healthy political choices to its troubled eastern neighbourhood, the EU should follow a 12-point plan focusing on a more nuanced policy towards Russia, stronger regional ties between Eastern partners, tailored EU conditionalities and an integration approach better suited to EaP countries, as well as improving EU political capacities in the region.

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№095: Russia’s Hidden Underbelly of Debt

№095: Russia’s Hidden Underbelly of Debt

Author(s): Maya Rostowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: economy; Russia; Eastern Europe; Eurasia; Europe

Despite the reigning consensus that the Russian economy is facing trouble ahead, some indicators suggest that the situation is not as dire as first appeared. Moreover, it may seem that the fiscal situation in the country—particularly its copious foreign currency reserves and substantial sovereign wealth funds—could still help extricate Russia from its economic difficulties. However, the very difficult budgetary situation in the regions and the staggering levels of debt of its companies suggest that economic problems could hit the country hard. Investors should remain vigilant of social and political tensions and the possible further deterioration of the business environment in Russia.

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№094: Bumps on Russia’s Road to the Eurasian Economic Union: Postponed Integration, Costly Enlargement and Delayed International Recognition

№094: Bumps on Russia’s Road to the Eurasian Economic Union: Postponed Integration, Costly Enlargement and Delayed International Recognition

Author(s): Stanislav Secrieru / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; Belarus; economy; Eurasia; Europe; Kazakhstan

Eurasian integration has been formally elevated to a new level. On 29 May, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed in Astana the founding treaty of the Eurasian Economic Union. However, problems related to integration, enlargement and international cooperation with the EEU indicate the effort is far from a point of no return. Despite the upbeat mood in Moscow, integration remains weak and selective, and in several important fields has been shelved until 2025. At the same time, the enlargement process has encountered security-related obstacles and triggered additional costs for Russia.

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№093: A Little-Known Success Story: Implementation of the NSS Goals in Central Europe

№093: A Little-Known Success Story: Implementation of the NSS Goals in Central Europe

Author(s): Katarzyna Kubiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Europe; nuclear weapons; Security; Czech Republic; Eastern Europe; Europe; Hungary; international security; Poland; Romania; Ukraine

The Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) process aims for the international coordination of efforts to improve nuclear security. However, in the absence of globally binding norms, mechanisms, accountability and transparency, nuclear security principally remains a national matter. The Central European states, in particular Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Ukraine, are part of the NSS success story. The key drivers have been the Central European states’ longing for recognition as part of the West, the personal engagement of individuals in the governmental apparatus, and the fact that cooperation on nuclear security enables intensified relation-building with the United States. Taking into account their past achievements, the states of Central Europe can also play an important role in advancing the continuity of the NSS process and leading by example with contributions to nuclear security at the regional level.

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№091: Rocky Road to a Level Playing Field in EU–China Investment and Trade Relations

№091: Rocky Road to a Level Playing Field in EU–China Investment and Trade Relations

Author(s): Artur Gradziuk,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economy; European Union; Asia; bilateral relations; Central Asia; East Asia; Europe; trade

At the beginning of 2014, the European Union and China launched negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty that would launch the next stage in economic relations between them. Although both approach numerous issues differently, they have also strong incentives to seek compromise. Reaching an agreement on investment topics could be a significant step towards creating a favourable environment for cooperation and resolving most contentious sticking points in bilateral relations in the near future. It could also become a template for future similar EU agreements.

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№090: Germany’s Policy towards Russia: New Wine in an Old Wineskin

№090: Germany’s Policy towards Russia: New Wine in an Old Wineskin

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: economy; foreign policy; Germany; Russia; Eastern Europe; economic policy; Eurasia; Europe; Western Europe

The tougher tone in Germany’s policy towards Russia reflects changes in Berlin’s perception of the eastern giant and in its own self-perception as a power willing to play a more active international role. This readiness for leadership could cement Germany’s status as a key international player whilst handing it the influence necessary to secure its own primary economic interests vis-à-vis Russia. However, it will also require Germany to critically address the long-standing premises of its policy towards Russia, and its appetite to overturn old assumptions remains limited. Lessons drawn by Germany now, in particular with regards to the causes of the Ukraine crisis, will prevail as a guideline for its Russia policy, and as such will also be decisive in the prospects for Polish–German cooperation.

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№089: New EU Energy and Climate Framework: Challenges for Poland and Germany

№089: New EU Energy and Climate Framework: Challenges for Poland and Germany

Author(s): Ryszarda Formuszewicz,Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: energy and climate; European Union; Germany; Poland; Central Europe; climate; Eastern Europe; energetics; Europe; Western Europe

The EU’s new energy and climate framework for 2030 is an exercise in reconciling Europe’s green agenda with its need for renewed competitiveness—as well as the domestic concerns of Member States. As the energy policies of Poland and Germany are shaped by EU policy, the 2030 policy proposal might serve as an opportunity for a shift towards bolstered bilateral cooperation. The conditions for this are twofold: mutual understanding and thinking outside the box.The publication is a part of the project “The German ‘Energiewende’ from Different Perspectives” carried out by the Polish Institute of International Affairs in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Poland.

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№088: Public Diplomacy in the European Union: Models for Poland

№088: Public Diplomacy in the European Union: Models for Poland

Author(s): Beata Ociepka / Language(s): English

Keywords: diplomacy; European Union; society; democracy; Europe; Poland

Diplomacy has been changing dramatically in recent years as a result of an adjustment to more interconnected and hybrid international relations. One of the signs of this change is more stress put on soft-power tools as public diplomacy. Classic diplomacy has shifted from the domain of politics to the public sphere, where public opinion is formed. Formerly latent diplomacy has become public diplomacy with the effect of a more symmetric conduct of international political communication. Poland’s public diplomacy is conditioned by the country’s size and its status as a “new” EU Member State, but there are lessons to be learned from strategies adopted by other countries in the European Union, particularly in the fields of culture, development aid, and education.

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№087: Georgia’s Local Government Reform: How to Escape from the Soviet Past (and How Poland Can Help)

№087: Georgia’s Local Government Reform: How to Escape from the Soviet Past (and How Poland Can Help)

Author(s): Adriana Skorupska,Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; local government; Asia; Caucasus; democratization; domestic policy; Eurasia; Poland

If Georgia is to remain the leader among post-Soviet countries in terms of successful democratisation, it must conduct an effective decentralisation of power. During its nine years in power, President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement rather oversaw a consolidation of power. The transfer of power to the Georgian Dream coalition in 2012 raised hopes that real decentralisation might happen. Poland has been engaged for years in the transfer of know-how and best practices in the field of local democracy building to its Caucasian partner. It should continue its support to the government in Tbilisi. This, however, should be combined with a constructive critique of Georgian reformers’ actions.

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№086: Terrorism and Sport: Dangers for the XXII Olympic Winter Games in Sochi

№086: Terrorism and Sport: Dangers for the XXII Olympic Winter Games in Sochi

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: terrorism; Eurasia; Russia; Security

Terrorists constantly seek the spotlight and attacking major sporting events constitutes a seemingly perfect springboard for global notoriety. As the XXII Olympic Winter Games in Sochi are nearing, the global public is understandably concerned about the July 2013 North Caucasian jihadi threats to either disrupt the Games or prevent them altogether. Are the recent Volgograd bombings all the terrorists could muster in anticipation of the Olympics or is there more to come? It is worth analysing some of the options the Caucasus Emirate might be considering in relation to their stated intent to disrupt or force the cancellation of the Olympics. All of the options are derived from information on previous terrorist attacks on other sporting events that could provide clues for counter-terrorism authorities in Russia and neighbouring countries to use when securing these Olympics.

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№085: Germany and the Future of the Eurozone

№085: Germany and the Future of the Eurozone

Author(s): Sebastian Płóciennik / Language(s): English

Keywords: eurozone; Germany; economy; Euro; Europe; European Union; Western Europe

Although the euro has survived the most severe phase of the current crisis, its future is still uncertain. The fate of the common currency will depend not only on the condition of the European economy, but also the priorities of its biggest player–Germany. So far that country has been strong enough to enforce its own vision of integration based on neoliberal reforms and austerity measures. Since the side effects of this prescription have been rising costs and risks, Berlin’s new government will consider a range of different solutions, including in extremis a controlled and partial break-up of the Eurozone. For Poland, this volatility creates a challenging environment with risks, but also creates chances for Warsaw to increase its influence over the evolution of EU integration in this field.

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№084: Insanity or Part of a Plan? Prospects for Changes to North Korean Domestic and Foreign Policy

№084: Insanity or Part of a Plan? Prospects for Changes to North Korean Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author(s): Nicolas Levi / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kim Dzong Un; North Korea; Asia; domestic policy; East Asia; economic policy; economy; foreign policy; Security

Ever since previous North Korean leader Kim Jong-il passed away in December 2011, concerns about the new North Korean regime have been growing. Although the international community has worried mainly about the country’s foreign policy, especially nuclear and missile threats, recent news about a purge in the North Korean leadership has brought to the fore the question of the regime’s internal stability. Kim Jong-un has been steadily building a new system of governance, giving more power to the Korean Workers' Party apparatus at the expense of the armed forces. He has also shown interest in boosting North Korea’s economy. In foreign and security policy, however, in the short term, North Korea is likely to continue on its previous uncompromising course.

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