CEEOL - Search Result

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№212: Strengthening Deterrence a Priority for NATO at the Vilnius Summit

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Vilnius Summit; security; deterrence; Russia;

At the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, the Allies should approve a realistic but ambitious plan to develop the forces necessary to conduct the collective defence mission in accordance with a new strategy and plans. An unequivocal rejection of the limitations contained in the NATO-Russia Founding Act may be crucial to strengthening the determination of NATO members to develop the necessary capabilities and discourage Russia from increasing its aggressive actions against the Alliance.

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№187: A Strategic Partner of China or United States Accomplice? Poland in the View of Chinese Authorities and Experts

№187: Strategiczny partner Chin czy wspólnik USA? Polska w retoryce władz i środowisk eksperckich ChRL

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English,Polish

Keywords: Poland; strategic partnership; USA; China; foreign policy;

Relations with Poland are not an important topic in the Chinese political debate. They become an element of the official narrative only in the wider context of China’s relations with the U.S. or the EU. The participants of the debate, including the authorities, declare their will to develop relations with Poland, but believe that the obstacle is primarily the country’s close relations with the United States. They believe that this state of affairs will continue under the presidency of Joe Biden, and thus the improvement of relations is not really possible. The current deterioration is, however, in the judgment of authorities and experts, not a big problem for China.

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№210: Forward Defence: a New Approach to NATO’s Defence and Deterrence Policy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; defence; deterrence; policy; Eastern Flank;

Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to an unprecedented increase in the threat of a Russian attack on NATO. This requires a fundamental shift in the Alliance’s approach to its defence and deterrence policy. As part of what the Alliance calls “forward defence”, the allies should deploy forces on the Eastern Flank that are capable of stopping a Russian attack from the very beginning. To strengthen its deterrence credibility, NATO should also officially end its self-imposed restrictions on the permanent deployment of troops on the Eastern Flank.

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№178: NATO and the Rise of China: How a “NATO-Pacific Forum” Could Augment Alliance Cohesion

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; NATO; Pacific-forum; Alliance Cohesion;

With the great-power competition between China and the U.S. intensifying, political cohesion within NATO could be endangered. The risk of this may be further exacerbated by the wide effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which is likely to enforce cuts or shifts of priorities in U.S. defence spending, increasing pressure on the NATO allies to contribute more to transatlantic and even global security. China’s growing power and influence coupled with the declining U.S. ability to defend its interests and the rules-based order will probably dominate the American threat perception for the long term. If NATO is unable to ensure a politically visible response to China’s rise, it may become difficult for U.S. politicians to justify the growing investments in the Alliance’s deterrence of Russia, including the deployment of American troops to Europe. NATO could limit the risk of such a scenario by the establishment of a “NATO-Pacific Forum” based on existing partnerships with like-minded countries from the Indo-Pacific region.

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№189: India and the Emerging Alliance of Democracies: High Stakes, Hard Choices

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Joe Biden; democracies; alliance; India; China;

President Joe Biden has raised the prospect of the formation of a coalition of democracies to protect the rules-based global order, under threat from undemocratic regimes. This sounds like an attractive proposal for India, the world’s biggest democracy, both to raise its international profile and strengthen its partnership with the U.S. and its allies, as well as to hedge against authoritarian China. Yet, India’s willingness to join it is constrained by domestic backsliding on democratic standards, its traditional apprehensions about promotion of democracy, and pragmatic links with undemocratic partners.

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№211: The Fight for Justice: Ukraine’s Legal Steps in Its Defence Against Russian Aggression

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; Russia; aggression; legal steps; defence; justice;

Through proceedings before international courts, Ukraine seeks to raise the political cost of the Russian military action on its territory and exert diplomatic pressure to force a cessation of hostilities. It also wants to challenge the controversial legal arguments Russia is using to try to justify the 2022 invasion. While future verdicts may provide a basis for reparations, effective enforcement of rights and punishment of perpetrators of crimes committed on Ukrainian territory are likely to succeed only in the long term. Poland and like-minded states can support Ukraine’s legal position and further assist it in documenting crimes and prosecuting suspects.

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№179: The Challenges of Making the EU) Fit for the Digital Age

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; digital age; ICT; computers; technology; challenges;

Rapid digitalisation of the global economy mobilises the European Union to adapt to the new reality. Emerging competition from the United States and China poses a risk of stifling European economic growth potential and, in the longer term, also the sustainability of its welfare system. The main challenges include tackling the untapped potential of the digital single market, increasing monopolisation of the platform economy, and differentiating the interests of the Member States. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV2) may be a turning point in accelerating digitalisation and innovation on an unprecedented scale. Projects such as Common European data spaces, digital skills education, “Destination Earth,” or European supercomputers can both improve the EU’s global competitiveness and have a positive effect on the everyday life of its citizens.

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№190: Greening the Three Seas Initiative with the U.S.

Author(s): Zuzanna Nowak / Language(s): English

Keywords: Three Seas Initiative; TSI; greening; climate change; policy;

After four years of the U.S. administration neglecting climate change, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are making it a main pillar of the state’s policy. The ambitious national economic plans aimed at achieving climate neutrality will also affect international partnerships. The Three Seas Initiative countries can become valuable partners in the U.S.-backed global coalition promoting the reduction of harmful greenhouse gas emissions. Without forgetting energy security priorities, countering climate change is a common interest, which is why the TSI states and the U.S. can strengthen the “green” dimension of cooperation.

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№180: Paint It Green: Russia and the Energy Transformation

Author(s): Bartosz Bieliszczuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; energy transformation; green; climate; policy; Russia; gas;

Russia’s decision to ratify the Paris Agreement shouldn’t be seen as a major shift in its approach to climate policy and green energy. The Kremlin’s main concern is not climate change but potentially lower demand for fossil fuels as a result of more restrictive climate policies pursued around the world and the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, instead of genuine efforts to transform its energy sector, Russia will promote it as helpful in Europe’s energy transformation. Such tactics will be exploited to seek closer cooperation with Europe and to maintain Russia’s position as a gas exporter.

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№191: Boosting Cybersecurity Resilience in the Eastern Partnership Region: Options for the EU

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; cybersecurity; resilience; eastern partnership; region;

Cyberattacks coupled with online disinformation campaigns are an increasing threat in Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, while their capacities to counter it are limited. At the forthcoming EaP summit in 2021, the EU could offer a new cybersecurity package for its partners. The EU might deepen political cooperation with associated countries through cyber dialogues and develop aid programmes for the protection of critical infrastructure and enhanced interagency cooperation. Regionally, the EU could better counter disinformation by strengthening East StratCom and increasing support for media literacy and critical thinking among youth.

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№181: The External Dimension of EU Migration Management: The Role of Aid

Author(s): Jolanta Szymańska,Patryk Kugiel,Henriette U. Erstad,Morten Bøås / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; migration; management; aid; role; external dimension;

Aid is seen as a key EU instrument in addressing the root causes of migration, but it has not been decisive for the drastic reduction of irregular arrivals in Europe in recent years. Nevertheless, development assistance has become crucial leverage for the EU in persuading major transit countries to improve their border control. Although this “externalisation” of EU border management seems like a successful approach for now, it is not sustainable in the long term. The Union still needs to find better synergy between migration management and development policy that is not designed to stop migration but to manage and regulate it in a more mutually beneficial way

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№192: Keeping Collective Defence the Main Priority in NATO’s New Strategy

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; defence; main priorities; strategy;

In NATO’s new strategy, the allies should include a description of the threat posed by Russia and bolster collective defence as the main priority of the Alliance. At the same time, they will have to strengthen other areas of Alliance policy to ensure the ability to respond to new types of threats that affect public support for NATO and political cohesion of the Alliance. It will be crucial to formulate the strategy in such a way that broadens the political dimensions of NATO and its functions but does not weaken the importance of collective defence and the allies’ determination to support it with necessary resources.

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№193: Gender Equality in International Relations: The Slow Implementation of Established Norms

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

Keywords: gender; equality; policy; foreign policy;

Women worldwide have been more affected by the social and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic than men. This again drew attention to the need for progress in achieving gender equality, which not only is a fundamental human right but also positively influences economic development and international security. That is why more and more countries include the perspective of equality between women and men in their foreign and development policies. In accordance with the commitments and recommendations of the United Nations, Poland should recognise the requirement of equality in its policymaking, including in recovery plans after the pandemic.

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№194: Prospects for EU-India Trade and Investment Agreements After the Conclusion of the CAI Negotiations

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; India; trade; investment; agreements; CAI; negotiations; foreign policy;

The conclusion of negotiations of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between the EU and China in December 2020 stirred heated debate in Europe and beyond. Interestingly, one of countries where the EU faced the harshest criticism was India. Though the majority of Indian analysts decried the agreement for its political significance, it also has several negative economic implications for India. Even if ratification of the CAI appears uncertain, the deal is important for the EU-India trade and investments negotiations. It strengthens the EU’s bargaining position, which may push India to more concessions and as a result open the way for progress in EU-India talks.

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№195: In Search of Direction: EU Strategic Compass

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; foreign policy; security; military policy; strategy; NATO;

Strategic Compass may provide momentum for EU defence cooperation, speed-up development of military capabilities in Europe, reinforce NATO’s defence and deterrence, and reduce transatlantic tensions over burden-sharing. Yet, some Member States are concerned about the negative effects of this strategising exercise on NATO, and may not implement its results if the EU military level of ambition is set too high. Hence, the Compass should take a middle-of-the-road approach: EU ambitions should be defined in terms of the ability of the Member States to provide decisive capabilities to crisis management operations run within different frameworks (UN, NATO, or coalition-led), while the EU itself should finally deliver on the promise of running autonomous rapid-reaction operations, deploying battle group-sized forces.

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№185: The Need to See the Wood Despite the Trees: The High Stakes of the EU-UK Talks on Their Future Relations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; UK; relations; foreign policy; economy; security;

With just six weeks before the Brexit transition period expires on 31 December 2020, a framework for a trade deal between the UK and EU is far from certain. The United Kingdom is the world’s sixth largest economy, and the prospect of it leaving the EU single market and customs union without any agreement increases the economic and security risks for Europe. But there is still an option for at least a basic “barebones” free trade agreement, which should be explored to enable an orderly transition to a new EU-UK relationship and its future upgrading.

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№196: “Decoupling” in Chinese: Challenges for China’s Economy

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; economy; development; strategy; foreign policy;

In the long-term economic development plans adopted in March this year, the Chinese authorities emphasised the need to expand China’s internal potential to reduce its interdependence on the U.S. and other partners - a decoupling. However, they tend to take a conservative approach to challenges related to indebtedness, lack of innovation, consumption, and demographic changes. Instead of proposing market reforms, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is systematically increasing its control over the economy. In foreign cooperation, they find it important to maintain the level of exports in the context of China’s share in global value chains, as well as to acquire technology. For the EU, this means the necessity to implement new market-protection mechanisms, and in the longer term transfer production from China to the EU.

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№186: Migration-Development Nexus: The Case of the Rohingya in Bangladesh

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Bangladesh; Rohingya; migration; minoritiesl Myanmar;

The expulsion of more than 700,000 Rohingya Muslims, a minority in Myanmar, to Bangladesh since August 2017 has caused one of the gravest humanitarian crises in the 21st century. It has also imposed a huge burden on one of the poorest and most densely populated countries in the world, which is also one of the major sources of international regular and irregular migrants globally. As observed in the similar large inflow of refugees to developing nations, this migration creates immense pressure on the host community and can lead to secondary migration to third countries. This paper attempts to assess whether one humanitarian crisis (the forced expulsion of the Rohingya) will lead to another migration crisis (out of Bangladesh), and what the international community is doing to address this duel challenge.

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№197: Internet Platforms in the EU’s Focus

Author(s): Marta Makowska / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; internet platforms; ICT; focus;

The largest American internet platforms have monopolised a number of services in the single digital market, escaping the scope of EU competition policy. The Apple-Google duopoly controls 99% of the global market for mobile operating systems and receives 50% of the revenue from online ads in the European Union. The EU, under the claim of digital sovereignty, is reaching for new tools, including regulations and taxes, to prevent further erosion of its market. The Union wants to be a leader in setting and promoting standards that incorporate the rights of citizens. Success in this area will depend on whether the scope of regulation will not excessively limit innovation and the development of European companies.

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№198: Implementation and Challenges for the EU’s Vaccine Diplomacy

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; COVID-19; vaccine; diplomacy; implementation; challenges;

The EU has strongly supported the UN-led efforts to ensure equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. However, problems in achieving this goal have already hurt the Union’s image. Activities by China and Russia, which convinced a large group of countries to buy or produce their vaccines, constitute another challenge for the EU. The Union should continue its efforts to increase its vaccine production capacity, encourage cooperation between its major allies, and relieve tensions surrounding the vaccine supply.

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Series:PISM Policy Papers

№212: Strengthening Deterrence a Priority for NATO at the Vilnius Summit

№187: Strategiczny partner Chin czy wspólnik USA? Polska w retoryce władz i środowisk eksperckich ChRL

№210: Forward Defence: a New Approach to NATO’s Defence and Deterrence Policy

№178: NATO and the Rise of China: How a “NATO-Pacific Forum” Could Augment Alliance Cohesion

№189: India and the Emerging Alliance of Democracies: High Stakes, Hard Choices

№211: The Fight for Justice: Ukraine’s Legal Steps in Its Defence Against Russian Aggression

№179: The Challenges of Making the EU) Fit for the Digital Age

№190: Greening the Three Seas Initiative with the U.S.

№180: Paint It Green: Russia and the Energy Transformation

№191: Boosting Cybersecurity Resilience in the Eastern Partnership Region: Options for the EU

№181: The External Dimension of EU Migration Management: The Role of Aid

№192: Keeping Collective Defence the Main Priority in NATO’s New Strategy

№193: Gender Equality in International Relations: The Slow Implementation of Established Norms

№194: Prospects for EU-India Trade and Investment Agreements After the Conclusion of the CAI Negotiations

№195: In Search of Direction: EU Strategic Compass

№185: The Need to See the Wood Despite the Trees: The High Stakes of the EU-UK Talks on Their Future Relations

№196: “Decoupling” in Chinese: Challenges for China’s Economy

№186: Migration-Development Nexus: The Case of the Rohingya in Bangladesh

№197: Internet Platforms in the EU’s Focus

№198: Implementation and Challenges for the EU’s Vaccine Diplomacy