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№199: A Backup Partnership: The Significance of Franco-Italian Relations for the EU and NATO

Author(s): Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; NATO; France; Italy; foreign policy; geopolitics; economy;

Ideological disputes, different approaches to the migration-management crisis, and rivalry in the Mediterranean have hampered the development of Franco-Italian relations in recent years. France’s preferred partnership with Germany will remain the basis of its European policy. Good relations between new Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and President Emmanuel Macron create the ground for Franco-Italian rapprochement, especially in view of Germany's lower activity in the EU before the elections to the Bundestag. Conflicting economic and geopolitical interests, though, may be an obstacle to Franco-Italian cooperation.

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№200: Faulty but Irreplaceable: Multilateralism in German Foreign Policy

Author(s): Lidia Gibadło / Language(s): English

Keywords: Germany; foreign policy; multilateralism; Russia; China; economy; security;

Multilateralism remains one of the key elements of Germany’s foreign policy as a means to implement German economic and security interests. This applies to, among other areas, cooperation with Russia and China. However, Germany will increasingly use multilateralism as a tool of pressure on authoritarian regimes to respect human rights and international law.

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№203: The Crisis of the Northern Ireland Political System and EU-UK Relations

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup / Language(s): English

Keywords: Northern Ireland; EU; UK; relations; crisis; foreign policy; border issues;

Two no-confidence votes in a month for successive leaders of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) herald a political crisis in Northern Ireland (NI) and increase the likelihood of snap NI Assembly elections before the ones scheduled for May 2022. In any case, the campaign will be dominated by the NI border issue, the EU-UK trade dispute, post-pandemic economic problems, and the centenary of the division of the island of Ireland. Unionists contesting the post-Brexit border arrangements can prevent close cooperation between the EU and the UK; therefore, it seems necessary to intensify the dialogue between the EU and this camp and replace the current solutions with a “smart border”.

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№204: Prospects for the Development of the EU-ASEAN Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; ASEAN; foreign policy; COVID-19; economic policy;

On 1 December 2020, the foreign ministers of the Member States of the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) decided to upgrade the relations of both organisations to the level of a strategic partnership. Both sides indicate that they share, among others, a commitment to multilateralism, peaceful settlement of disputes based on international rules, climate protection, and free and fair trade. The partnership may contribute to the strengthening of multilateral cooperation weakened by the U.S.-China rivalry, a stronger position of both organisations in relation to China, and their economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. One challenge for closer cooperation will be the respect of human rights in ASEAN states and economic integration of its members with the countries of Asia and the Pacific region.

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№205: The Ukrainian Energy Sector at a Crossroads: Opportunities for Poland

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Ukraine; energy; policy; Poland; foreign policy;

Ukraine’s orientation towards the synchronisation of its energy system with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area (CESA) and the need to determine the future of nuclear energy has forced it to settle on an energy transformation strategy. One model may involve replacing nuclear and coal with renewable energy sources (RES), as advocated by Germany. However, a solution assuming the simultaneous development of nuclear, gas, and renewable energy would be more beneficial for Ukraine, and for Poland’s energy security. Poland may promote this solution in Ukraine in cooperation with France, the U.S., and the UK.

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№206: Possible Instruments to Better Operationalise the EU Strategy Towards Russia

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Russia; strategy; possible instruments; foreign policy; civil society;

In light of Russia’s aggressive steps against European Union countries and in their neighbourhood, the EU should develop options for action in the event of further hostile activities by the Russian authorities. These may include variants of financial sanctions, including in the energy sector, and restrictions directed against Russian oligarchs linked to the Kremlin. At the same time, the EU should focus its support on Russian civil society, but may work with the Russian authorities on global problems such as health and climate policy if they show a willingness to cooperate.

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№207: Biden Administration and U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy: Implications for NATO

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; NATO; Biden administration; military policy; nuclear declaratory policy;

Limiting the role of U.S. nuclear weapons to deterring and retaliating against nuclear attacks, as currently under consideration by the Biden administration, would be disadvantageous to NATO. The option of using nuclear weapons in response to non-nuclear aggression is less important for the Alliance than it was during the Cold War, but its rejection by the U.S. would be premature given the ongoing adaptation of NATO’s conventional forces to defence against Russia. Such a shift would weaken the Alliance’s political cohesion, and possibly also the credibility of deterrence of Russia.

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№208: Digital Protectionism: Data Localisation

Author(s): Oskar Szydłowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Digital Protectionism; Data Localisation; Policy; Governance; Privacy; Security;

In recent years, under the pretext of protecting national security and citizens’ privacy, states have introduced several protectionist measures concerning digital data. The main one is data localisation law, which requires data to be stored and processed in a specific country. In practice, it often serves authoritarian governments in gaining greater oversight of citizens through unrestricted access to and control over data. Furthermore, it has a negative impact on the global economy, especially international trade. The challenge remains to develop regulation at a global level in place of incompatible local regimes.

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Leaders Criticise the War in Ukraine and Pledge to Strengthen the Global Economy

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Global economy; Ukraine; war; foreign policy; G20;

The main topic of the G20 leaders’ summit in Indonesia on 15-16 November was the war in Ukraine and its negative effects on the world economy. Most countries condemned Russia’s aggression against its neighbour, although differences persist among members of the group in this regard. The G20 also announced actions to curb inflation along with supporting groups most affected by the food crisis and taking into account the interests of developing countries.

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The Quad Summit and New U.S. Economic Initiative - Strengthening Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: USA; Indo-Pacific; Quad Summit; economy; foreign policy;

On 24 May during a visit by U.S. President Joe Biden to Japan, a leaders summit in the Quad format, bringing together Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S, was held. A day earlier, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) was announced, which, besides the Quad members, ten other countries in the region want to join. Both the summit and IPEF announcement confirm the growing U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific and the preparation of a broader and more attractive offer of cooperation for the region as an alternative to Chinese proposals.

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№213: Wagner Group in Belarus: What are the Consequences for NATO and the EU?

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Anna Maria Dyner,Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Wagner Group; Yevgeny Prigozhin; Dmitry Utkin; death; NATO; EU; consequences;

The death of the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, along with the group’s main commander, Dmitry Utkin, in a plane crash on 23 August could accelerate the military company’s reorganisation. Regardless of the scope of the changes, some of its mercenaries will remain in Belarus and will be used to foster threats to NATO and EU countries. To reduce the effectiveness of their actions, the most threatened countries, including Poland, should treat the group as a terrorist organisation, which can facilitate the coordination of actions within NATO and the EU against such groups.

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Series:PISM Policy Papers

№199: A Backup Partnership: The Significance of Franco-Italian Relations for the EU and NATO

№200: Faulty but Irreplaceable: Multilateralism in German Foreign Policy

№203: The Crisis of the Northern Ireland Political System and EU-UK Relations

№204: Prospects for the Development of the EU-ASEAN Strategic Partnership

№205: The Ukrainian Energy Sector at a Crossroads: Opportunities for Poland

№206: Possible Instruments to Better Operationalise the EU Strategy Towards Russia

№207: Biden Administration and U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy: Implications for NATO

№208: Digital Protectionism: Data Localisation

Leaders Criticise the War in Ukraine and Pledge to Strengthen the Global Economy

The Quad Summit and New U.S. Economic Initiative - Strengthening Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

№213: Wagner Group in Belarus: What are the Consequences for NATO and the EU?