Series:PISM Policy Papers

№154: Common Monetary Policy, Different Fiscal Policy: How Will Europe React to Crises in the Future? An Analysis Looking at Germany, France and Poland as Examples

№154: Common Monetary Policy, Different Fiscal Policy: How Will Europe React to Crises in the Future? An Analysis Looking at Germany, France and Poland as Examples

Author(s): Matthias Schäfer,Astrid Pape / Language(s): English

Keywords: Europe; Finances; France; Germany; Poland

There is consensus across all ideological boundaries that the eurozone is imperfect as an institution.2 Thecommon monetary policy, in combination with national scope in fiscal policymaking and a non-optimalcurrency area has painfully exposed its weaknesses, not only in relation to the dramatic developments inGreece but also in the shape of the slow recovery of the European economy. While countries such asGermany have emerged fortified from the crisis, France’s growth, for instance, continues to weaken—despite an annual budget deficit of 3%. Within Europe, opinions differ as to which fiscal policy will best pave the way out of the crisis. While Germany publicises its healthy finances in the form of low levels of debt and minimal inflation,4countriessuch as France view expansionary fiscal policy as a crucial factor for future growth. The Stability and GrowthPact provides a framework for fiscal policy, although differences of opinion are evident when it comes to itsimplementation and compliance with the rules. In Germany in particular, the recent relaxed handling ofviolations of the signed rule set was criticised.

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№023: Towards an Enhanced Polish-Spanish Partnership

№023: Towards an Enhanced Polish-Spanish Partnership

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Spain; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; international cooperation

The paper argues that despite the likely preoccupation with the immediate internal challenges and broader, EU-wide concerns, Poland and Spain stand a good chance of bolstering their relationship given their credentials as ardent advocates of European integration and a positive track-record of the bilateral cooperation to date. In particular, the relationship could benefit from the further development of its institutional framework, and from recasting the dialogue on crucial matters such as European neighbourhood or European defense cooperation. While Poland and Spain may not see eye-to-eye on certain issues—the future EU budget being arguably the most prominent among them—they should still make an effort to deepen their dialogue given the high stakes on the European level.

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№022: The European Development Fund: Perspectives and the Changing Landscape of EU-ACP Relations

№022: The European Development Fund: Perspectives and the Changing Landscape of EU-ACP Relations

Author(s): Karolina Werner / Language(s): English

Keywords: Africa; Caribbean; development found; Europe; European Development Fund (EDF); European Union; Pacific Ocean Region

The European Development Fund is arguably one of the most potent tools of the European Union’s policy towards the countries of Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific region. As the member states and the EU institutions prepare to make a decision on the future shape and scope of the EDF, the following analysis lays out the intricacies of the EU-ACP relationship from its outset, and addresses the key elements of the debate within the decision-making and expert circles. The EDF is plagued by general inconsistency of the EU policy towards these regions, and suffers from all-too-familiar shortcomings such as extensive bureaucracy and ineffective programming of aid. Despite these challenges, the EDF has established itself as a fairly predictable and versatile instrument for channeling of aid, and one which adequately addresses the needs of most of the ACP countries. Still, some reforms, such as greater diversification between the three regions involved, could be necessary, all this while the EU member states stand by their commitments to development aid.

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№021: Peace and Development Efforts in Afghanistan: A Lost Decade

№021: Peace and Development Efforts in Afghanistan: A Lost Decade

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; Asia; development aid

The paper summarises the last decade in Afghanistan and points at critical mistakes made by the international community. The author argues that Western powers did not treat Afghan security and reconstruction seriously and displayed much ignorance about its regional environment—all in all causing the great opportunity to put the country on its own feet to be lost. The modest achievements in Afghanistan will be at grave risk as the West prepares to leave the country by 2014. The international commitment to Afghanistan needs to be reinvigorated before the country descends into yet another war. The analysis concludes with a set of crucial lessons learned from the Afghan conflict for future peace-and-reconstruction missions.

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№020: European Neighbourhood Policy: How to Reconcile EU’s Offer with Neighbour’s Expectations?

№020: European Neighbourhood Policy: How to Reconcile EU’s Offer with Neighbour’s Expectations?

Author(s): Monika Arcipowska,Beata Wojna / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; neighbourhood policy; Europe

The paper diagnoses the key challenges faced by the European Union as it re-calibrates its policy towards its immediate neighbours to the east and to the south, spurred by the recognition of inadequate progress in the former case, and by a tectonic shift in the socio-political landscape in the latter case. The authors argue that the EU needs to urgently address the disconnect between its own objectives in the neighbourhood, and the expectations of its partners, who are themselves a hugely heterogenic group. The EU has no better choice but to increase the conditionality behind its initiatives, and to introduce greater differentiation among their addressees. The institutional, structural and financial constraints of the EU’s neighbourhood policy only add to the challenge, but the EU has too much to loose in terms of its own credibility as a foreign policy actor to allow them to prevail.

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№019: India in Afghanistan: Valuable Partner of the West

№019: India in Afghanistan: Valuable Partner of the West

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; Asia; India; NATO; Pakistan

Recent conclusion of the Agreement on Strategic Partnership between Afghanistan and India has underscored India’s low-profile engagement in the war-torn country. This paper presents the record of Indian involvement in Afghanistan after 2001 and analyses the potential for increased presence at three distinct levels: civilian, military and regional. The author argues that in spite of Pakistani objections, the West should strengthen cooperation with India in reconstruction and stabilisation efforts in Afghanistan while providing strong incentives for constructive regional cooperation in South Asia. Even as NATO is gearing up for a responsible exit from Afghanistan, its neighbours are there to stay. Crucially, the role that India can play in Afghanistan needs to be reassessed. The upcoming conferences in Istanbul and Bonn offer an excellent opportunity in this respect.

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№018: European Perspectives for Moldova: Challenges and Obstacles

№018: European Perspectives for Moldova: Challenges and Obstacles

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: Moldova; Eastern Europe; Europe; European integration; European Union

The paper pictures a broad panorama of factors that are likely to impact the future prospects of Moldova’s integration with the EU. The authors argue that Moldova’s best chance to move further down this path could depend on a favourable, if fragile, realignment among three EU member states whose interests seem to be spelled out in a sufficiently clear manner: Germany, Poland and Romania.

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№017: Not (yet) an Energy Revolution. India between Climate Change Mitigation and Development Imperatives

№017: Not (yet) an Energy Revolution. India between Climate Change Mitigation and Development Imperatives

Author(s): Lidia Puka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Energetyka; Indie; klimat

Indie stoją przed poważnym wyzwaniem w związku koniecznością pogodzenia wzrostu gospodarczego z ambitnym planem wdrożenia strategii rozwoju, która zakładałaby odejście od polegania na paliwach kopalnych jako na głównym nośniku energii. W minionych latach Indie zaczęły sygnalizować wzrost zainteresowania walką ze skutkami zmian klimatu – mitygacja zajmuje wiele miejsca w oficjalnych dokumentach, rosną inwestycje w instrumenty, które mają ograniczyć rolę węgla w indyjskim energy mix. Jednocześnie wyzwania dla dalszego rozwoju są znaczne. Przede wszystkim chodzi o niedobór podaży energii dla dużych grup mieszkańców Indii oraz o trudności ze zwiększeniem zużycia jej alternatywnych źródeł, połączone z relatywną obfitością występowania węgla jako głównego filaru produkcji elektryczności. W rezultacie Indie mogą uciekać się działań pozorowanych i tymczasowych, oddalając się tym samym od realnej rewolucji w dziedzinie energetyki.

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№004: What future for out-of-area operations after Afghanistan?

№004: What future for out-of-area operations after Afghanistan?

Author(s): Gareth Chappell / Language(s): English

Keywords: Afghanistan; OTAN; security

Analizuje on zagadnienie gotowości Sojuszu Północnoatlantyckiego do podejmowania tak zwanych operacji "out-of-area". Nowa Koncepcja Strategiczna NATO przewiduje, że Sojusz będzie kontynuował aktywność poza obszarem traktatowym określonym w Traktacie Waszyngtońskim. Gareth Chappell, analityk PISM, dowodzi jednak, że operacja sojusznicza w Afganistanie może spowodować nasilenie się odwrotnego trendu. W państwach członkowskich NATO coraz silniej odczuwalne jest zmęczenie tym konfliktem, zaś kryzys gospodarczy dodatkowo utrudni sojusznikom sprostanie wymaganiom intensywnej, zamorskiej obecności wojskowej. Niektóre państwa członkowskie, w szczególności USA, mogą być w rosnącym stopniu skłonne odwoływać się do innych instrumentów w swojej polityce bezpieczeństwa - mniej formalnych, ale za to bardziej skutecznych. W rezultacie NATO będzie intensyfikować zaangażowanie na innych polach, takich jak promowanie współpracy w dziedzinie bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego, obrona przeciwrakietowa czy zagrożenia nowego typu, dążąc w ten sposób do potwierdzenia swojej żywotności.

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№003: A sea change or a tactical adjustment? Examining the shift in Russia’s policy towards Belarus

№003: A sea change or a tactical adjustment? Examining the shift in Russia’s policy towards Belarus

Author(s): Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Belarus; Russia; international relations

W trzecim numerze PISM Policy Papers dr Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz analizuje podejście władz Rosji wobec rządów Aleksandra Łukaszenki w kontekście wyborów prezydenckich na Białorusi. Autor dowodzi, że politykę Rosji w rosnącym stopniu determinują czynniki ekonomiczne. Władze rosyjskie wydają się coraz bardziej zainteresowane odsunięciem obecnego prezydenta Białorusi od władzy, co z kolei stwarza nowe możliwości działania dla Unii Europejskiej.

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№002: The challenge of Middle East Peace before the EU‐US Lisbon Summit

№002: The challenge of Middle East Peace before the EU‐US Lisbon Summit

Author(s): Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU‐US Lisbon Summit; Middle East; peace

PISM Policy Paper – przygotowany we współpracy z Centrum Stosunków Transatlantyckich przy Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) na Johns Hopkins University w Waszyngtonie – omawia stan bliskowschodniego procesu pokojowego w przededniu szczytu UE-USA w Lizbonie. Autorka, Patrycja Sasnal (analityk PISM oraz Visiting Scholar w SAIS), dowodzi pilnej potrzeby bardziej spójnej polityki UE wobec Bliskiego Wschodu, polegającej na aktywnym zaangażowaniu Wysokiej Przedstawiciel UE ds. Stosunków Zewnętrznych oraz Polityki Bezpieczeństwa, a także wsparciu wszystkich państw członkowskich. Sprawując Prezydencję w Radzie UE w drugiej połowie 2011 r., Polska może przyczynić się do wypracowania konsensu w podejściu państw UE do procesu pokojowego na Bliskim Wschodzie dzięki łagodzeniu napięć między Francją a Niemcami i pobudzając współpracę transatlantycką. Efektem byłoby wzmocnienie zarówno polskiej, jak i unijnej pozycji międzynarodowej.

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№001: U.S. Mid-term Elections: An Ebb of the Obama Revolution

№001: U.S. Mid-term Elections: An Ebb of the Obama Revolution

Author(s): Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Barack Obama; USA

Pierwszy tekst w serii PISM Policy Papers podejmuje temat możliwych implikacji wyborów do Kongresu USA. Autor tekstu, Bartosz Wiśniewski (analityk PISM), wymienia powody i przejawy rosnącego niezadowolenia amerykańskich wyborców z działań kontrolowanego przez Partię Demokratyczną Kongresu oraz administracji prezydenta Baracka Obamy. Spodziewana wygrana Partii Republikańskiej postawi pod znakiem zapytania przyszłość najważniejszych jak dotąd osiągnięć tej prezydentury, ale tylko w ograniczonym stopniu pozwala na kreślenie perspektyw reelekcji Obamy w 2012 r. Niepowodzenie wyborcze nie wywoła drastycznej zmiany głównych kierunków polityki zagranicznej USA, może jednak wpłynąć na skuteczność międzynarodowej aktywności administracji amerykańskiej.

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№155: Gas Security in the Pipeline—Expectations and Realities

№155: Gas Security in the Pipeline—Expectations and Realities

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk,Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English

Keywords: bezpieczeństwo energetyczne; gaz; Energetyka; Norwegia; Polska

The cooperation between Norway and Poland in the energy sector has recently taken very tangible shape. In 2016, Poland decided to launch the Northern Gate project—a set of gas interconnections aiming to link the Polish gas market with gas deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. With that decision, Poland wants to diversify away from Russia to mitigate energy security and political risks connected with the high level of dependence on one supplier. But in terms of Polish-Norwegian cooperation, the question of security of gas supply that Poland wants to address is accompanied by the question of the security of gas demand, a key concern for gas producers such as Norway. Hence, cooperation in the gas sector examined from those two perspectives may actually bring benefits for both countries and promises of win-win cooperation.

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№156: Adapting NATO’s Conventional Force Posture in the Nordic-Baltic Region

№156: Adapting NATO’s Conventional Force Posture in the Nordic-Baltic Region

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk,Karsten Friis / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; conventional force posture; Nordic-Baltic Region

The security of NATO members in the Nordic-Baltic region is interconnected by such factors as the possibility of geographical escalation, the importance of securing the North Atlantic for U.S. reinforcement of Europe, and the key role of cooperation with NATO partners Sweden and Finland. NATO must consider these interconnections as it continues to adapt to the challenge posed by Russia. NATO’s further adaptation should fill in the gaps in Allied force posture and be guided by an overarching principle of ensuring coherence between its existing elements and new ones. Given Poland and Norway’s close views on NATO and transatlantic relations, as well as their credibility rooted in their various contributions to the Alliance, the countries should jointly advocate a coherent process in the Nordic-Baltic region.

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№157: Squaring the Circle: Is a Balanced Deterrence and Dialogue Approach toward Russia Workable?

№157: Squaring the Circle: Is a Balanced Deterrence and Dialogue Approach toward Russia Workable?

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Jakub M. Godzimirski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Russia; dialogue; international relations

Dialogue between Russia and NATO is indispensable to limit the risk of unintended military confrontation amid increased tension. Without dialogue, Alliance cohesion is also at stake. To develop a balance between deterrence and dialogue, it is necessary to understand how the two actions relate to each other, what lessons the West can learn from the past, and what goals it wants to achieve apart from limiting the risk of confrontation.

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№158: China as an “Engine” of Globalisation: More Words than Deeds

№158: China as an “Engine” of Globalisation: More Words than Deeds

Author(s): Justyna Szczudlik,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; globalisation

As the U.S. under President Donald Trump leans towards protectionist economic policy, China sees an opportunity to become a driving force of globalisation. It presents itself as having the economic potential and political clout crucial to being its champion. However, China’s still relatively closed market, use of prohibited trade practices, stalled internal economic reforms, social challenges, and political disputes with neighbouring countries make its claim less probable in the years to come. For now, China lacks the credibility to be an engine of globalisation.

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№159: EU Policy Options Towards Post-Soviet De Facto States

№159: EU Policy Options Towards Post-Soviet De Facto States

Author(s): Urban Jakša / Language(s): English

Keywords: post-soviet countries; Nagorno-Karabakh; Transnistria

Conflicts in post-Soviet areas involving de facto states have remained unresolved since the ceasefires in the early 1990s. By heating up periodically, these conflicts threaten broader regional security, and by remaining unresolved, limit their chances for political association and economic integration with the EU, undermining the Union’s Eastern Partnership. In recent years, the EU’s tensions with Russia, the ever-growing dependence of most post-Soviet de facto states on Russia, the recent re-escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, and recently emerged, protracted conflict in eastern Ukraine have made the situation more complicated and urgent. Since the EU’s current approach towards these “frozen conflicts” has so far shown little result, the EU and the V4 should take a more active role in resolving these conflicts and might want to consider stepping up engagement with the post-Soviet de facto states. Increasing the interaction and extending its scope while at the same time reassuring the parent states that this will not constitute “de facto recognition” would de-isolate the populations of these territories, reduce their dependence on Russia and provide incentives for conflict resolution.

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№160: Xi Transforms the PLA: How the Military Is Being Adapted to China’s Changing Global Position

№160: Xi Transforms the PLA: How the Military Is Being Adapted to China’s Changing Global Position

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

Keywords: China; armed forces; Security; Xi Jinping

Reform of the Chinese armed forces gained new momentum under Xi Jinping in 2015. The main argument behind the strategy, structure, and equipment modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the active defence of China’s global interests to strengthen its competitiveness with the United States. A short-term goal is to make the PLA operationally capable of projecting China’s power abroad constantly, using joint exercises, peacekeeping missions, and the development of military infrastructure. One recent example was opening of China’s first foreign military base in Djibouti. The PLA should also be capable of defending China’s territory and overseas interests by performing combat operations abroad. This means a possible change to the non-intervention clause that has until now been a crucial element of China’s foreign policy.

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№163: Putting Georgia on the 2018 NATO Summit Agenda

№163: Putting Georgia on the 2018 NATO Summit Agenda

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

Keywords: Georgia; NATO; NATO’s policy towards Georgia; Russian annexation of Crimea; NATO Summit Agenda; NATO membership; military cooperation;

Russia’s annexation of Crimea triggered a shift in NATO’s policy towards Georgia. NATO moved from mainly political support for Georgia’s NATO membership aspirations to enhanced practical military cooperation. Although it might be more difficult for Russia to coerce its small neighbour, the lack of visible progress on the path to NATO membership may weaken Georgian morale and lead to a reversal of democratic gains. Hence, it is important that during the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels the Allies offer additional support to help Georgia increase its resilience.

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№164: The Bucharest 9: Delivering on the Promise to Become the Voice of the Eastern Flank

№164: The Bucharest 9: Delivering on the Promise to Become the Voice of the Eastern Flank

Author(s): Marcin Terlikowski,Veronika Jóźwiak,Łukasz Ogrodnik,Jakub Pieńkowski,Kinga Raś / Language(s): English

Keywords: NATO; Eastern Flank; security; Russia’s provocative rhetoric; Bucharest 9; national defence capabilities; military policy;

The Bucharest 9 (B9), a group composed of NATO’s easternmost members, has quickly earned clout as the voice of states whose security is the most undermined by the increasingly provocative Russian rhetoric and force posture and of the region that has become the focus of the Alliance’s response to this threat. Indeed, the potential of the B9 to shape the NATO agenda is significant, not least because most of its countries present a rigid commitment to common defence by taking on an increased burden in NATO by increasing defence expenditures and investing in new capabilities. Yet, the B9 also faces limits to its effectiveness because of its participating states’ differing threat perceptions, uneven commitments to beefing-up national defence capabilities, and the potential volatility of their respective military modernisation and transformation plans. More cooperation within the B9 framework, both political and military, could alleviate these problems and help make it the real voice of the Eastern Flank.

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