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The policy brief analyses the energy security and governance risks. The authors underline that: - Bulgarian ranking has improved significantly, jumping from 73rd to 58th place, narrowing the gap with the average OECD results. - Since Bulgaria receives all of its natural gas from one source and via one pipeline, it is imperative that the government’s decisions for the initiation of future energy projects are based on the projects’ potential to diversify supply sources and ensure an uninterrupted energy supply. - The efforts to diversify the gas supply by building the Interconnector Greece - Bulgaria (IGB) have stalled in spite of external financing, existing contractual obligations with the Shah Deniz consortium and due to lack of administrative capacity and state capture from domestic and foreign interests. - The European Commission’s efforts to integrate the SEE region into the EU internal market and diversify its gas supply away from a single supplier have started to pay off. The liberalization of the cross-border capacities along the Transbalkan pipeline, previously fully reserved by Gazprom, is now open for competitive bidding. - The liberalization of regional natural gas trading and the completion of the interconnector pipelines with Greece and Romania would advance Bulgaria’s bargaining position vis-à-vis Gazprom by reducing the country’s gas import costs, and improve the country’s security of supply and the affordability of residential gasification initiatives.
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Duty-free trade-related smuggling of excise goods has been one of the most potent and sustainable sources of political corruption in Bulgaria for the last fifteen years. The operation of land border area outlets has been a major channel for flooding the Bulgarian market with tons of illegal cigarettes and alcohol and the sale of millions of gallons of excise-free petrol. The resulting profit, running into hundreds of millions each year, has been funding many a Bulgarian party and has become the foundation of untouchable political oligarchies. The policy brief examines duty-free trade in Bulgaria in regard to turnover and tax revenue losses from the operation of the duty-free outlets. It also analyses the regulation of duty-free trade in Bulgaria which bears all the marks of a state capture. The brief presents possible courses of action towards reducing the negative effects of duty-free trade.
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Enhanced criminal justice and improved cross-border cooperation between judicial and law enforcement authorities are essential for the EU and its Member States in order to effectively respond to the increasing threat of cross-border criminality. The last two EU enlargements resulted in significant changes in the Union’s external borders. Some of the countries that used to have such borders are now neighbors to other EU Member States. Their responsibilities regarding the security at the external borders are gradually transferred to new Member States which have become the outermost countries of the Union. The duties of these countries on protecting the external borders are yet to increase substantially. Further to Bulgaria's accession to the European Union, the country's frontiers with Turkey, Macedonia and Serbia, as well as its Black Sea border, have become external borders of the EU. Hence, border crossing-related criminal offences and customs violations no longer represent a problem of Bulgarian national security alone: they have turned into a problem of EU security. This policy brief is a follow up to the 2007 CSD report Reinforcing Criminal Justice in Border Districts and examines the attitude of and measures undertaken by the relevant stakeholders as regards the policy recommendations formulated by the report.
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This policy brief outlines the result of the consultations, which the Center for the Study of Democracy held with representatives of business and government on the feasibility of public-private partnerships in promoting a level paying field in Bulgaria. Its findings seek to inform further discussions with Bulgarian and international stakeholders on the modalities of possible future initiatives in this area on the example of public policy on the grey economy. If the efforts of the Bulgarian government and the business community to reduce the adverse impact of grey economy on the nation’s welfare are to succeed they need to bring on board the experience from successful coalition building for good governance from the non-government sector, based on best international practices. International experience has revealed that there are no easy fixes to pervasive grey economy and corruption. This brief proposes an overview of measures undertaken thus far to tackle the grey economy in Bulgaria and outlines a possible platform for engagement of the business, NGO and government sectors for long-term partnership for leveling the paying field in the country.
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The Policy Brief focuses on the Bulgarian energy sector, which has historically been and will remain of strategic importance for the country’s economic development and national security, especially in the context of growing EU and Balkan markets. However, recent shifts in the world’s economy, policy, regional dynamics, and geo-political situation are the driving factors necessitating the need to introduce major reforms focused on a transparent, diversified, efficient, and market based energy sector in Bulgaria. Bulgaria needs to actively participate in the European and international energy debate and to address the whole complex of energy related policies.
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Energy is a key sector for Bulgarian economy, both because of its size and because of its importance to national competitiveness. This requires decisions to be made on the basis of reliable and accessible data, broad based discussions and clearly identified strategic priorities, which rely on established practices and mechanisms for good governance. The latest strategic document at national level is the Bulgarian Energy Strategy from 2002. Without updating it, the Bulgarian government has committed in the years following its EU accession to substantial investments with long-term impact on the energy sector, which is a vivid example of failure in good governance. Bulgaria’s membership in the European Union (EU), climate change negotiations, the financial and economic crisis and Bulgaria’s inclusion in several international investment projects have changed the conditions for the development of Bulgaria’s energy sector. These latest developments require updating of the national energy strategy and providing for better and transparent governance in the sector.
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The policy brief focuses on the impact of the governemnt measures put forward to counter the economic crisis and their effect on the hidden economy. The hidden economy has been a central topic for discussion in the public space upon each amendment to the economic legislation and particularly before elections or the passing of the national budget. Nevertheless, aside from the Annual Hidden Economy Index released by the Center for the Study of Democracy and a few sporadic analyses by other non-governmental, academic and business organizations, there is a lack of an adequate government system of ex ante and ex post impact assessment of the proposed measures to fight hidden activities of the wider economy. The adjustments of GDP done by the National Statistical Institute aiming to include hidden economy in the system of national accounts are not made public and do not serve as a basis for decision-making. Thus, public debates on hidden economy become little more than displays of rhetorical skills or actually serve completely different agendas rather than the implementation of measures to curb its negative impact.
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Organized crime in Bulgaria is quick to adapt to the new realities and by and large enters the legal economy by legalizing capital accrued from criminal activities. This process poses a significant threat to the country: while in developed democracies money-laundering is carried out through the complex financial operations or investments in the legal economy (for instance through the purchasing of real estate and movables), in Bulgaria money-laundering takes on a specific form – political investment. The policy brief makes an overview of the organized crime, corruption and money-laundering in Bulgaria. According to the authors, in spite of several legislative initiatives and a growing amount of prosecutorial decrees for money-laundering in the last decade, the prosecution for this type of crime in Bulgaria remains insignificant. The complexity of the crime, the objective difficulties for its investigation, as well as the necessary inter-institutional approach on an international level to combat such activities explain the relatively small number of prosecutions.
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During the past decade organised crime threats have taken on an increasing importance and have become central to the national and EU policy debates on domestic security and citizen safety. The dynamics of globalisation combined with the dismantlement of the Iron Curtain in the heart of Europe led to growing cross-border flows of people, goods, money and information. On the other hand East European transition was marked from its start by a fast rise of criminality, which soon translated into unprecedented levels of transnational organised crime across Europe. Further to that the growing complexity of financial markets created opportunities for white collar criminals, adding some hitherto unknown criminal phenomena.
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Thе policy brief presents the dynamics and the components of the Hidden Economy Index 2010. It also examines the recent trends in the Bulgarian economic development and expected effects on the informal sector. The dynamics of the hidden economy is an important indicator of the state of a country’s institutions as well as of its competitive potential. The hidden economy has a serious impact on private sector activities, the productivity and competitiveness of the workforce, on economic development and growth, as well as the social security and support systems of the country. According to different estimates about a third of the world’s GDP is within the “shadow turnover”. It is argued that the current financial and economic crisis will result in an increase in the hidden economy in most European countries. The recent debt crisis in Greece has exposed drastically the need to better account for and to grasp the implications of the existence on large hidden economy on economic performance. This is even more pressing in the light of achieving Europe 2020 results and calculating each country’s contribution to the European Stability Mechanism and the Euro Plus Pact.
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The policy brief presents the results of a survey of the public trust in the police and the courts in Bulgaria, the public perceptions of the level of corruption in these institutions and the fear of crime in the Bulgarian society. Of all the EU member states, Bulgaria is the country whose citizens are the least satisfied with the performance of the main government institutions. Trust in the main institutions concerned with criminal justice – the police and courts, is low and has remained practically unchanged over the last decade. At the end of 2010, a positive evaluation of police performance was given by less than half of the country’s adult population and barely one in five gave a favorable opinion of the courts. The low public trust in the courts and police can also be accounted for by the high level of corruption in these institutions. It is also conducive to public attitudes of insecurity and the society begins to perceive crime as an inherent part of reality rather than a problem that can actually be addressed. A state’s penal policy can only produce results if sufficient attention is paid to trust, legitimacy, and security. It is therefore recommended to adopt a system of indicators for the assessment of public trust in criminal justice.
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The economic crisis and the increased threats from terrorism, organised crime and illegal migration have brought to light the issue of efficient and effective management of the external borders of the European Union. For Bulgaria it has become even more important with regard to its upcoming accession to the Schengen area.
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In 2014 Bulgaria regained one position compared to the previous year in the economic competitiveness ranking of the World Competitiveness Yearbook (WCY), published by the Institute for Management Development (IMD). The country is ranked 56th, while in 2013 it was 57th out of 60 economies. This is only a marginal improvement, and remains significantly lower compared its highest achievement in 2009 – 38th place. In 2014, Bulgaria is ranked higher than Croatia, Argentina and Venezuela as in 2013, and has surpassed its Southern neighbor Greece, which has fallen to 57th place, 3 places lower than 2013. There are no significant changes among the most competitive nations in 2014. The USA continues to hold the 1st position, as its economy is successfully recovering from the crisis thanks to a favorable business environment, characterized by a strong R&D culture and abundance of skilled labor as well as to a more accommodating policy stance in providing financial stimuli and lowering energy prices.The Center for the Study of Democracy has identified five key challenges, which hinder the competitiveness of the Bulgarian economy: • Introduce public administration reforms, and more and better e-government services; • Initiate performance-based financing of education; • Reduce energy security risks through energy efficiency and diversification of supply sources and technologies; • Improve regulatory control and compliance quality; • Tackle high level corruption and market capture.
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The policy brief makes an overview of the levels of corruption and the impact of corruption on the societal sectors. In 2014, the Corruption Monitoring System has recorded the highest levels of involvement of the Bulgarian population in corruption transactions in the last 15 years. In the past year Bulgarians have conceded to being involved on average in roughly 158 thousand corruption transactions monthly. Most corruption transactions have been initiated by the administration through exerting corruption pressure on those seeking public services. The public’s susceptibility to corruption in 2014 is similar to 1999 despite the increase of intolerance to corrupt behaviour. In the business sector corruption’s effectiveness for solving problems has grown in 2014. Most companies do not trust public organisations and do not consider they are treated equally in courts.
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The Crimean crisis and the continuing instability in Eastern Ukraine have turned into a rude wake up call for Europe’s energy security vulnerabilities. Russia has demonstrated its capacity to yield political and economic influence on the countries in the CEE and the Black Sea regions by leveraging its dominant position on their energy markets. Russia has pressured governments to support its flagship project, South Stream, at the expense of the countries’ long-term strategy to diversify their natural gas supply and in defiance of EU’s strategy for building a liberalised common market. Since the beginning of the crisis the EU and NATO have scrambled for finding the right measures to a balanced response to Russia’s growing assertiveness, while striving to alleviate the most acute energy security risks for their members.
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In countries with endemic corruption, integrity reforms can only be successful if anti-corruption institutions succeed in tackling internal corruption challenges. A sharp decline of corruption in law enforcement would provide society with the necessary tools to pursue tangible change. The experience of established democracies is that a successful transformation depends not simply on individual measures but rather on the introduction of sets of effective anti-corruption measures across the entire public administration. Corruption among lawenforcement officers has been viewed with an increasing concern by the authorities and the public in many European states. As a result, while no common approach has ever been tested with respect to the judiciary, elected politicians or the customs, countering police corruption has become an all-European effort. During the last decade, several European countries developed multi-institutional systems for police integrity. On EU level, platforms like the European Partners against Corruption (EPAC) were introduced, enabling specialised anti-corruption institutions to cooperate and share experience. In addition, Europol, Interpol and the UN developed and shared the blueprints of common standards and good practices in preventing police corruption.
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Transparency of media ownership and media pluralism are directly related to fundamental constitutional principles, rights and freedoms such as independence and freedom of the media, freedom of expression, pluralism of opinions and citizens’ right to information. Consistent application of these democratic principles is required to prevent the vicious practice of using the media as an instrument for state capture. The current publication makes a review of the legal framework for disclosing ownership of the media.
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The EU legal framework requires that all Members States criminalise the financing of organised crime. According to the provisions of Article 2 (a) of the Council Framework Decision 2008/841/JHA of 24 October 2008 on the fight against organised crime ‘’Each Member State shall take the necessary measures to ensure that one or both of the following types of conduct related to a criminal organisation are regarded as offences: (a) conduct by any person who, with intent and with knowledge of either the aim and general activity of the criminal organisation or its intention to commit the offences in question, actively takes part in the organisation’s criminal activities, including the provision of information or material means, the recruitment of new members and all forms of financing of its activities, knowing that such participation will contribute to the achievement of the organisation’s criminal activities.” Nevertheless, criminal justice authorities in Members States rarely make use of these provisions.
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The EU has played an influential role on Member States and their integration policies, albeit to varying degrees. EU standards have been vital in moving Member States towards the formulation of national integration strategies, which have taken into account the Common Basic Principles of Immigrant Integration and the Zaragoza indicators. The process of developing migration and integration management institutions and the correspondent data collection systems has become more apparent under the influence of EU standards and regulations in all ten Member States. The Zaragoza set of indicators in migrant integration are only a minimum list of indicators and States are encouraged to collect and analyse further data according to their specific composition of the migrant population and the legal and policy framework. The use of indicators gives policy actors a lasting perspective and evidence base for policy planning. The availability of these indicators is therefore a starting-point for more shared learning across the EU and evidence based policy making, implementation and monitoring. The setting up of national integration indicators can be seen as a positive development in Austria, Belgium and soon Italy as it helps provide an evidence base for policy monitoring as well as policy making in these countries.
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