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Избор на методи за прогнозиране на риска от несъстоятелност в България

Author(s): Ekatherina Tzvetanova,Ivan Yordanov Kostov / Language(s): Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The purpose of this study is to select the appropriate method for the creation of a model capable to forecast the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy in the Bulgarian economy. This paper examine 232 different models for forecasting the companies risk of bankruptcy elaborated in the period 1966-2014. All the sampled models were tested with a set of criteria and for each of them, analysis of inconsistencies were performed. This analysis supported the identification of the method to be applied in the development of bankruptcy prediction model for Bulgarian context.

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Роля на ефективната държава за конкурентоспособността

Author(s): Maria Marikina / Language(s): Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

The effectiveness of economic policies for competitiveness is related to institutional efficiency and particularly that of the state. The State as one of the main institutions is a precondition for competitiveness. The aim of the report is to present the importance of the state for the development of our national competitiveness. In this sense, the object is competitiveness and subject is discovering of criteria that can assess the impact of effective state on it. In conclusion we would reach conclusions on these criteria and the importance of the state for Bulgarian competitiveness.

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Bailing Out in a Community of Stability – Controversies of the Economic and Monetary Union in Times of Crisis

Author(s): Attila Vincze / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Before Laertes leaves the Danish Court his father, Polonius, gives him some useful advices how to behave himself in France: "Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend, And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.” In times of an economic crises caused by easy credit conditions, sub-prime and predatory lending, mortgage bubble etc., these words seem to be especially wise.

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Procedural Measures in the Reorganization of Bankruptcy Debtor in Serbian Legislation

Author(s): Vladimir Čolović / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The Proceedings of reorganization of the Bankruptcy Debtor represent a new start in this matter. After applying such proceedings, the Bankruptcy Debtor can continue his/her activities. The Reorganization Plan is the basic document of that Reorganization. The Bankruptcy Proceedings Act of the Republic of Serbia regulates many forms of Reorganization. Some of them are the main part of the Plan and include all possibilities for the continuation of the work of the Bankruptcy Debtor as well as solutions for payment of the Creditors' claims. Some of these forms include: keeping of all property of the Bankruptcy Debtor, sale of his/her property or transfer of the property for the settlement of the Creditors, closing some of the departments of the Bankruptcy Debtor or the change of Debtor’s activities, etc. As a rule, the Reorganization Plan consists of several forms of Reorganization. The Creditors decide on the Reorganization Plan, but the application of the Plan depends also on the status of the Bankruptcy Debtor.

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THE CONNECTION OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION WITH THE SOCIAL SYSTEM AND ITS SUBORDINATION WITH REGARD TO THE POLITICAL SYSTEM

Author(s): Andreea Cîrciumaru,David Ungureanu / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

For the organization and functioning of a state, it is necessary that the administration and the political power cooperate, the state administration being one of the fundamental forms of achieving political power. State administration is one of the most important activities of contemporary society, and it has to be at the heart of the concerns of the political factors. Between the system of public administration and the political parties as elements of the political system there are differentiated relations from one state to another,depending on the system of government.Another issue concerns the relation between the public administration system and the pressure groups using certain constraints on the system of public administration, when its component bodies make certain decisions affecting the interests of these organizations.

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THE IMPORTANCE OF COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Author(s): Adina MIHĂESCU / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The business environment and specific environments of intelligence activities share an important common feature: lack of certainty. Although supposedly digitization and technological progress should ease the manager’s decision-making (through easier access to information), in practice, he is overwhelmed by the large amount of data he has at his disposal. The difference is made by those going from the “curiosity” to the“verified information” stage.Making this detailed process of collecting relevant data is extremely important. And this activity is characteristic of Competitive Intelligence (CI) structures. The raw data is then transformed into intelligence, and only now it can form the basis of strategies and action plans (or analyses, forecasts, etc.). This is one of the main strengths that a company can have,namely performance in anticipation.Romania has significant potential for economic development, which is also encouraged, for example through the Start-up Nation Government Program. According to data released by the Ministry of Business, Commerce and Entrepreneurship, the aforementioned program finances ten thousand companies annually. They suddenly create competition across several economic sectors in different areas. To resist the market, both emerging and senior firms are forced to adapt quickly and understand the direction and magnitude of the changes that have taken place. Thus, the CI can help these changes to be of lesser magnitude and, perhaps most importantly, to converge towards the creation of a sustainable, coherent and without major destabilization economic environment.

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Usefulness of Tax Assignation for the Czech Tax System: The Direction of Debates on Introducing

Author(s): Vladimír Hyánek,Marie Hladká / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The Czech Republic is the only country of the Visegrad Four that still does not apply the percentage tax designation scheme as one of the forms of financing of the non-profit sector. The mechanism has been discussed in the Czech Republic for years, however the idea has not been put to practice yet. A number of these discussions was approached as seeking a vision for the future while in other cases the discussions shifted to the political level or studies were drawn up on introducing the mechanism to the Czech legislation.The authors present the direction and development of debates on introducing percentage tax designation scheme in the Czech Republic, introduce arguments presented for and against the percentage tax designation scheme and estimate impact of the introduction in the Czech Republic.

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Fiscal Bills and Implementation Lags

Author(s): Daniel Němec,Hana Lipovská / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The aim of this paper is to broaden our knowledge of the implementation lag and primarily to analyse the impact of bicameralism on it. For the aim of this research, an original dataset of fiscal discretionary bills and state budget bills was created. The dataset on the fiscal discretionary bills is based on the original list of discretionary government expenditures and revenues, which was compiled by the Czech National Bank. Our extended dataset covers 69 bills in total for the period 1994-2013. While standard implementation of fiscal discretionary measures takes 215 days, implementation without the Senate took only 143 days. The monocameral procedure used for the state budget bill takes just 103 days. For the aim of our research, we defined the original concept of fiscal procedure as a monocameral legislative process.

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Modelling of Municipality Indebtedness Evaluation at Regional Level

Author(s): Pavel Petr,Romana PROVAZNÍKOVÁ,Jiří Křupka / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The objective of this article is to evaluate and analyse municipal indebtedness of the Czech Republic [CR) municipalities [with the exclusion of the capital city Prague) from the point of view of their size - both for the entire CR for year 2013 and the NUTS2-Northeast [NUTS2-NE) region for the years 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Selected indicators have been used to evaluate municipal debt (MD). One of them is the “budget responsibility" indicator. This indicator will be compulsory for municipalities based on approving the CR constitution law. Another indicator is the share of debt in the total municipality assets. We have used a system approach for executing this analysis.

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Who Has Had the Main Say in the Path of the Czech Pension Reform: Politicians, Experts - or Both?

Author(s): Martin Potůček,Veronika Rudolfova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Although pension systems are among the most stable elements of social systems, even they evolve. In recent decades, dozens of countries have joined in by enacting minor adjustments or significant reforms. Politicians as well as invited experts have been paying close attention to the topic. In this paper, we analyze the framework of the spirit and content of the discourse of the Czech pension reform between 2004 and 2014 with the aid of discursive institutionalism theory and methods of framing analysis.

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Social Innovation Types in Consumer Protection in Alternative Financial Services after the Great Recession

Author(s): Jiří Navrátil,KLÁRA Placier / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The impact of the Great Recession on many aspects of our societies, politics and economies has become a frequent theme of research; however, there are still many empty spaces left for the study of economically and politically relevant issues. One of these has been the consequences of recent economic crisis for the social innovation patterns of the field of Consumer Protection in Alternative Financial Services (CPAFS). There are several reasons for this focus. First, the field of Alternative Financial Services (AFS) has recently become one of the quickly developing areas of economic life and existing studies suggest that it was the recession which sped up the transformations and innovations in the field. At the same time, the crisis has had a large socio-economic impact on societies and citizens.

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European Evidence on the Long-Run Superneutrality of Money

Author(s): Oleg Deev,Martin Hodula / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper investigates the validity of the money superneutrality concept for the sample of 30 European economies. Using a structural vector autoregressive framework, we examine the long-run response of real output to a permanent inflation shock for each country. We find that for the majority of countries in our sample the long- run superneutrality concept is confirmed as the original increase/decrease in output growth fades in time. We also fail to proof the additional hypothesis that the exception to superneutrality validity is a group of countries with smaller in-sample inflation mean.

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Analysis of the Effectiveness of Selected New Types of Bonus-Malus Systems - A Simulation Approach

Author(s): Ewa Poprawska / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

Bonus-malus systems are used for the classification of the insured in different tariff classes based on the individual history of claims. The aim of such systems is to differentiate premiums for clients with high and low claims ratios to limit the phenomenon of the negative selection of customers and to attract low-claims ratio customers. Thus, bonus-malus systems also fulfil a marketing function and are a tool for gaining competitive advantage.

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Relationship between Government Bond Yield Spread and Fiscal Fundamentals in Selected EU Countries

Author(s): Irena Szarowská / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

This paper investigates relationship between government bond yield spread and fiscal fundamentals in selected European Union member states in the period 1995-2012. The aim of the paper is to examine impact of GDP growth, budget balance, debt and the fiscal rules index on government bond yield spread. The empirical evidence is based on unbalanced annual panel data of 15 EU countries (time span is divided into a pre-crisis and a post-crisis period), data are taken from Eurostat and OECD database.

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Monetary Aggregates and Consumer Price Inflation in the Euro Area

Author(s): Ľudomír Šlahor,Peter Stanko,Mária Barteková / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

In this paper we study the relationships between monetary aggregates M1, M2 and M3 and inflation (represented by HICP) using statistical analysis. We analyse the extent of correlations between money growth (M1, M2, and M3) and inflation at different frequencies and different points in time as well as the time-lag relationships between these variables. The analysis serves to verify the quantity theory of money for a transmission mechanism within the maximum period of 6 months. Our main focus is on correlations in the time interval from January 2010 until December 2014 which allows a meaningful and representative analysis.

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What is the Future of Public Expenditure in the European Countries?

Author(s): Mirka Wildmannova / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The 20th century experienced major changes in the structure and conception of the welfare state, mainly as a result of demographic, economic and social changes. This was accompanied by a multiple increase in public expenditure in the social sector and the welfare state has found itself in a crisis since the 1990's. Given the fiscal unsustainability of the present social systems, measures and reforms addressing the fiscal crisis of the welfare state are being introduced.

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System Dynamics as Method for Evaluation of Development Activities of Municipalities

Author(s): Martin Sobotka / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper deals with the classification of main factors of municipal development. The impacts of mentioned factors on the development of municipalities are not unified. In real the factors influence the incidence of other factors. The solution for evaluation of impacts of development activities may be the method of system dynamics. The ability to search many mutual relations and feedbacks is the main contribution of this method. This method uses for capture of these situations the Figureical display of the model in form of stock and flow Figures and causal loops Figures. It is possible to simulate the created model after substitution of mathematical equations which capture the relation among partial magnitudes. The interception of development of municipality is the solution of this method.

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Development of Social Insurance Revenues in the Czech Republic

Author(s): Ondřej Bayer / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The paper analyses income development from social security insurance premia in the Czech Republic from the perspective of a macroeconomic modelling, and discusses its development with respect to the development of personal income taxes. The presumption is that premia development should follow the development of revenues from the personal income tax. The main method chosen for the analysis is a formation of regression models, by use of which are identified the main explanatory macro indicators; another applied method is the Figureical analysis of monitored variables.

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What a Patient Must, Can and Wants to Have: Demand for Health Care and its Economic Consequences

Author(s): Jan Mertl / Language(s): English Publication Year: 0

The aim of this paper is to show three different approaches to health care provision based on different position of the patient in the system – or to be more precise, different incentives for health care provision. It tries to justify, that there is not a single type of demand for health care, but looking close at the demand, we can identify three subtypes of it, based on objective need evaluation and subjective decision.

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Огюст Валрас (1801 – 1866) и неговият принос за научна програма по политическа икономия

Author(s): Margarita Karachanova / Language(s): Bulgarian Publication Year: 0

This article discusses the scientific achievements of Auguste Walras. The author summarises Walras' main theoretical concepts on the political economy and presents his contribution to the scientific development. The research includes detailed literature review and synthesis of the main views expressed by Auguste Walras.

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