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Breaking the Deadlock: Unity Government in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

An agreement between Blue and White leader Benjamin Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enabled the establishment of a unity government on 17 May. Gantz justified going back on earlier promises not to cooperate with the indicted PM with the need to focus on the COVID-19 pandemic. His decision has weakened the parliamentary opposition and stabilised Netanyahu’s premiership. It will also help ease political tensions, for example, regarding judicial reforms. It is possible that the new government will initiate the annexation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, a move deemed illegal internationally.

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Przełamanie impasu – rząd jedności w Izraelu

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): Polish

Dzięki porozumieniu między liderem Niebiesko-Białych Benjaminem Gancem i premierem Benjaminem Netanjahu 17 maja powołano wspólny rząd. Ganc uzasadnił odejście od wcześniejszych obietnic o niepodejmowaniu współpracy z oskarżonym o korupcję szefem rządu koniecznością walki z pandemią COVID-19. Jego decyzja osłabiła opozycję parlamentarną i stabilizuje władzę Netanjahu, pomoże też wygasić część sporów politycznych, np. wokół reform sądownictwa. Możliwe, że nowy rząd zainicjuje nielegalną aneksję osiedli żydowskich na Zachodnim Brzegu.

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South Caucasus Countries and COVID-19

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): English

The peak incidence of COVID-19 in the Caucasus is forecast for mid-May. The countries of the region are not prepared for it—their health services are inefficient, and the adopted anti-crisis solutions do not meet the needs of their economies. The pandemic also leads to limiting the activity of the opposition in these countries, deepening the surveillance of society and intensifying the use of propaganda by the authorities.

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Państwa Kaukazu Południowego wobec COVID-19

Author(s): Arkadiusz Legieć / Language(s): Polish

Szczyt zachorowań na COVID-19 na Kaukazie jest prognozowany na połowę maja br. Państwa regionu nie są na niego przygotowane – ich służby zdrowia są niewydolne, a przyjęte rozwiązania antykryzysowe nie spełniają potrzeb ich gospodarek. Pandemia prowadzi do ograniczenia aktywności opozycji w tych krajach, pogłębienia inwigilacji społeczeństw i intensyfikacji działań propagandowych przez ich władze.

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The Great Lockdown: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

The coronavirus pandemic and efforts to suppress it (the Great Lockdown) will lead to the collapse of the global economy. In the short term, the reduction in production and consumption in the countries most affected by the pandemic will lead to a global recession. In the long run, the crisis may result in a partial retreat from globalisation, higher indebtedness, and narrowing the differences in economic potential between the EU and the U.S., and China. A positive side effect may be the acceleration of the development of the digital economy, including the services market.

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Skutki pandemii COVID-19 dla gospodarki światowej

Author(s): Marek Wąsiński,Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): Polish

Pandemia COVID-19 i działania podejmowane w celu jej stłumienia doprowadzą do załamania światowej gospodarki. W krótkim okresie ograniczenie produkcji i konsumpcji w państwach najbardziej dotkniętych pandemią spowoduje światową recesję. W dłuższej perspektywie kryzys może skutkować m.in. częściowym odwrotem od globalizacji, wyższym zadłużeniem czy zmniejszeniem różnic w potencjale gospodarczym między UE i USA a Chinami. Pozytywnym skutkiem ubocznym może być przyśpieszenie rozwoju gospodarki cyfrowej, w tym rynku usług.

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Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Stability of Iran and the Regional Situation

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Iran’s official figures on cases and deaths from COVID-19 (the disease resulting from coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2) do not reflect the real scale of the pandemic in that country, which might be among the hardest hit in the world. The pandemic will deepen the economic crisis and disfunction of the state, becoming a challenge to Iran’s ruling elite. The regime might survive thanks to the security apparatus and, in parallel, continue its support of Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the Syrian government. Only the succession of power after Ali Khamenei will be the real test of the coherence of the Iranian elite, and in case of disruption, it might result in the collapse of Iran’s theocracy.

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Implikacje pandemii COVID-19 dla stabilności Iranu oraz sytuacji regionalnej

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Dane władz Iranu o liczbie chorych i zmarłych na wywołaną koronawirusem chorobę COVID-19 nie odzwierciedlają rzeczywistej skali zachorowań, która jest jedną z największych na świecie. Pandemia pogłębi zapaść gospodarczą oraz dysfunkcjonalność państwa i będzie wyzwaniem dla elity rządzącej Iranem. Dzięki aparatowi bezpieczeństwa reżim będzie się jednak utrzymywał i nadal wspierał milicje szyickie w Libanie, Iraku i Jemenie oraz władze Syrii. Dopiero sukcesja władzy po Alim Chameneim będzie dla irańskiej elity testem spójności i – w razie jej zakłócenia – mogłaby skutkować upadkiem teokracji.

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Singapore’s Reaction to COVID-19: Lessons Learnt for EU Countries

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Singapore has been recognised by the World Health Organization (WHO) as an example of a country effectively combating the COVID-19 pandemic. This is mainly because its crisis-response system, including healthcare, is well-organised and the rapid measures it took to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. This strengthens Singapore’s image as a modern and efficient state. However, its trade-based economy will strongly feel the effects of the pandemic. Inspiration for EU countries in the fight against the pandemic lies in the organisation of Singapore’s crisis-response system and its actions to maintain jobs.

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Singapur wobec pandemii koronawirusa – wnioski dla państw UE

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): Polish

Singapur jest uznawany przez Światową Organizację Zdrowia (WHO) za przykład państwa efektywnie zwalczającego pandemię COVID-19. To głównie efekt dobrej organizacji systemu reagowania kryzysowego, w tym służby zdrowia, oraz szybkich działań zapobiegających rozprzestrzenianiu się koronawirusa. Umacnia to wizerunek Singapuru jako nowoczesnego i sprawnego państwa. Jednak jego oparta na handlu gospodarka silnie odczuje skutki pandemii. Inspiracją dla państw UE mogą być organizacja systemu reagowania kryzysowego Singapuru czy działania na rzecz utrzymania miejsc pracy.

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The Coronavirus Pandemic and Effectiveness of the U.S. Biological Threats Early Warning System

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to the U.S. was preceded by long-term predictions and numerous direct warnings of the dangerously evolving situation in China. Documents leaked to date suggest that all these signals were ignored by President Donald Trump and his advisors. This is why the Trump administration’s reaction at the beginning was to politicise the crisis, which will likely result in special investigation by Congress. Despite this issue, the early warning of biological threats and countering them may become a prospective area of cooperation within NATO and between the U.S. and European Union.

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Pandemia COVID-19 a skuteczność systemu ostrzegania przed zagrożeniami biologicznymi w USA

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): Polish

Pandemię COVID-19 w USA poprzedziły długofalowe prognozy i liczne bezpośrednie ostrzeżenia o niebezpiecznym rozwoju sytuacji w Chinach. Ujawnione dotychczas dokumenty administracji sugerują, że sygnały te zostały zignorowane przez Donalda Trumpa i jego otoczenie. Dlatego kwestia reakcji administracji prezydenta w pierwszych tygodniach pandemii została upolityczniona i zaowocuje prawdopodobnie specjalnym dochodzeniem Kongresu. Pomimo tych problemów wczesne ostrzeganie o zagrożeniach biologicznych i usuwanie ich skutków mogą stać się perspektywicznymi obszarami współpracy w NATO oraz UE z USA.

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Disappointing post-COVID-19 recovery. China on the path of a protracted slowdown

Author(s): Maciej Kalwasiński / Language(s): English

China’s economy started the year with a clear upturn after the ‘zero COVID’ strategy was lifted, but the macroeconomic data published in recent weeks has clearly fallen short of expectations. The situation has caused disquiet in Beijing and among those economists who expected the robust rebound to continue. In order to stimulate economic activity, the People’s Bank of China has made a slight cut to interest rates. Moreover, respected foreign media outlets have reported that the government is readying a stimulus package with investments in infrastructure as its core component. The aim of these slightly more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies is to bolster economic growth in the second half of the year, but their effectiveness will be limited. Low economic confidence among households and businesses remains a barrier to increased activity. China’s economy has entered a period of structural slowdown as it grapples with the cumulative costs of the rapid economic expansion over recent decades, deteriorating public sentiment and an unfavourable international environment. Beijing’s options for stimulating the economy are narrowing and the priorities are shifting: the imperative to boost GDP is giving way to economic security.

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China’s “Zero COVID” Policy Fails

Author(s): Marcin Przychodniak / Language(s): English

In the face of the deteriorating economic situation and protests, the Chinese authorities modified the rules of fighting the pandemic. In December, they lifted most of the restrictions, which resulted in a rapid increase in infections and other effects. While maintaining the rhetoric about the positive effects of the “zero COVID” policy, they present the changes as the next stage in the fight against the coronavirus. In the next few months, the authorities’ decisions may bring about an improvement in the economic situation at the expense of, among others, the deaths of millions of Chinese.

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WTO Negotiations Progress After the 12th Ministerial Conference Despite Challenges

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Participants in the WTO’s first ministerial conference in nearly five years, which was held in Geneva on 12-17 June, took several important decisions, including on a waiver of intellectual property rights on COVID-19 vaccines and the reduction of subsidies for fisheries. The effects of the meeting testify to a breaking of the negotiation deadlock visible in recent years. However, the key issue of WTO reform remains unresolved. The EU should actively support talks on changes in the organisation, while striving to conclude trade agreements with a smaller group of its members.

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Countries Seek Reforms of the International Public Health Governance System

Author(s): Szymon Zaręba / Language(s): English

To date, the results of efforts to improve the international community’s ability to prevent and respond to future pandemics show that countries do recognise the need to increase funding for these capabilities. However, they are much less unanimous about the scale and direction of changes to existing regulations in this sphere despite the fact that insufficiently precise responsibilities and lack of sanctions for not meeting them were the main reasons for the failure of efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19. Efforts to reform these regulations could be served by closer cooperation between the EU and the U.S.

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Ultraorthodox Jews in Israel – epidemic as a measure of challenges

Author(s): Marek Matusiak / Language(s): English

In Israel as in other countries, when the COVID-19 epidemic surfaced it exacerbated the existing divisions and tensions in society. A group that came under severe attack from the public was the Jewish Ultraorthodox population (the Haredi). This was due to disregard on the part of certain ultra orthodoxgroups of the restrictions imposed in response to the epidemic and an exceptionally high infection rate in that community – as much as 70% of cases recorded from February until May this year affected members of that community.

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Towards greater resilience: NATO and the EU on hybrid threats

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

In recent years, NATO and the EU have taken greater responsibility for countering hybrid threats. This group of threats covers a wide range of hostile methods used by states and non-state actors. It includes both military and non-military activities, for instance special forces operations and irregular warfare, and also disinformation and cyberattacks. NATO and the EU are involved in facilitating international cooperation on countering hybrid threats and protecting their own structures and institutions against them. In this way, both organisations reinforce the efforts at the national level, since fighting hybrid threats is primarily a task of the member states. Nevertheless, NATO’s and the EU’s actions in this respect are constrained by insufficient financing, and by the member states’ unwillingness to enhance the sharing of intelligence and sensitive information related to, for example, critical infrastructure protection or cybersecurity. The recent spike in anti-Western COVID-19 disinformation campaigns clearly shows that both NATO and the EU could do more to counter hybrid threats.

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Biden’s Most Urgent Task: Fighting the Pandemic

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

The Biden administration is expected to take decisive action to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, including stimulation of the economy. For this reason, in the first months of this presidency, Biden will focus the government’s activities on domestic issues, including implementing a new pandemic strategy and funding another stimulus package. In terms of the international fight against the pandemic, Biden has already retracted the notice of the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO. The administration also announced that it will join the international vaccine initiative COVAX.

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The Deployment of COVID-19 Vaccines in Israel

Author(s): Michał Wojnarowicz / Language(s): English

Israel most likely will become first country in the world to reach full vaccination of its resident population against COVID-19. The success of the vaccination deployment was possible due to its quick securing of supply, an efficient distribution system, and high mobilisation of society. On the political level, ending the pandemic will strengthen Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and improve his electoral prospects. The successful deployment will also become a permanent part of Israeli image policy.

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