Осврт на демографске токове урбанизације код нас и у свету

Author(s): Danica Miličić / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 1/2004

Urbanization is clearly a significant factor in global demographics. How we deal with this growing trend will determine the general development of nations in the 21st Century. By the end of this decade, more than half of the world's population will live in cities, making humanity a predominantly urban species for the first time in its history. The most significant effect of population distribution in Serbia and one of the most important impulses of its demographic flows, starting from the 1970”s, is the process of urbanization. Very intensive growth of population living in cities in Serbia after Second World War was caused by migrations (population movements from rural to urban areas, cities and industrial centers), by spreading city areas towards suburban areas and transformation of settlements into the cities according to the definition, and by the natural increase of city population. Urban centers are becoming the only pole of demographic development.

Demografska budućnost Srbije na drugi način

Author(s): Vladimir Nikitović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 2/2013

Based on the assessment of the empirical errors in the official population forecasts of Serbia, the paper shows why forecast users might want a change of the current official concept. The article consists of three parts. The first gives a brief chronological overview of the methods and hypotheses in the official population forecasts of Serbia during the last 60 years. The second refers to the quantification of the past forecast errors in projecting total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and total population aiming at assessment of the empirical variability. The third part shows the probabilistic population forecast of Serbia based on Bayesian hierarchical models of vital components, as implemented in the 2012 revision of United Nations World population prospects. The empirical error served as an evaluation tool of the probabilistic distributions of total population. In spite of the increased availability and quality of input data and developing of advanced projection techniques during the period, there was no obvious improvement noted neither in accuracy nor in the expression of the uncertainty inherent to forecasting in the official population forecasts in Serbia up to date. In general, fertility has been overestimated while improvements in mortality have been underestimated. It has been shown that accuracy largely depends on the stability of demographic processes throughout the projection horizon, which confirms findings from similar studies in other countries. The uncertainty in the demographic trends remains a major challenge for forecasters. A typical judgment that the smallest error will be made if a recently observed trend is assumed to continue has been linked to the low fertility variant in the past Serbian forecasts. The target level of the medium fertility, interpreted as "most likely" outcome, was firmly bound to replacement fertility until recently thus reflecting desirable rather than realistic future. Therefore, the reversal in the trend of the total population of Serbia came as a surprise or much earlier than expected for the forecasters. The probabilistic population forecast of Serbia provides results that users can clearly understand and use along with attached information on error magnitude. Before running the projection model, it was necessary to adjust the 2012 UN estimates for Serbia to suit the current official estimates and recent relevant studies on demographic trends in the country. The comparison of probabilistic hypotheses and results with the current official projection aims to highlight the key benefits of the new approach in terms of reduced subjectivity, improved accuracy and quantified uncertainty. The latter could be particularly relevant for decision makers allowing them to calculate the expected costs involved in wrong decisions. From the perspective of the forecast based on "UN model", the strong optimism of the current official projection appears to be groundless. Besides, the empiric evaluation of the probabilistic distributions of total population suggests that it fully reflects the pattern of observed uncertainty in the past forecasts of Serbian population.

Probabilistička prognoza stanovništva Srbije do 2100. Prema projekcionom modelu Ujedinjenih nacija

Author(s): Vladimir Nikitović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 2/2013

Strategic Financial Planning in the General Budget

Author(s): Latfe Alhusseinawi,Ileana Ashrafzade,Salah Aldhash / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2017

Strategic financial planning is one of the main pillars in modernized institutions and works in a variety of sources of funding in its budget which foresees events and anticipates in what should be done in the future. Hence, we know what is planning and what is strategic. Therefore, planning is the activity which every other activity depends on the organization; it is a mental work of its nature. It is based on gathering, analyzing and analyzing data, information and facts as required by the various decision-making process. The strategy is science and art that uses the available means and capabilities within an integrated process that is prepared and planned to create a margin of freedom action in accordance with the supreme policy of the financial institutions. And its characteristics linked to all the functions of the institution according to the process of integration have adapted to the environmental conditions and identified the ways deal with them, which ultimately achieve the mission within a specific time frame to deal with the "fundamental problems affecting" in future interests. One of the objectives of the strategic financial planning is to help allocation of surplus of financial resources that expects the costs and incurred with the planned revenues. So it has gained this importance through the effective way to address the economic problems such a lack of resources and available investment opportunities to the institution. It reduces the degree of uncertainty about the risks associated with variables outside the control of the institution's management. Tools help identify and contribute to minimizing the negative effects of these variables. In conclusion, the successful strategic financial planning depends on financial resources, managerial skills and organizational culture in the future vision that provides the organization with the development of its activities and transfers these activities from stalemate to innovation.

Novo poimanje starosti – prospektivna starost

Author(s): Mirjana Devedžić,Jelena N. Stojilković Gnjatović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 1/2012

While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it’s growth in the future. If old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. „Prospective threshold“ is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share of the elderly, (prospective) median age and (prospective) old age dependency ratio. With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging, world’s population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective approach found that longer life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant and child mortality, but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period 1953–2010. Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17 in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total population) , or the proportion of people with a life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective criteria, differences between men and women almost do not existent, so that it calls into question the widely accepted feminization of the elderly. The same conclusion stands when we discuss (prospective) median age, population is older using prospective (47,15 years) than traditional (41.41) indicator in 2010, also, compared with rest of the region or with more developed countries, prospective median age is higher in Serbia. Also, prospective old-age dependecy ratio is higher than convetional one during analyzed period. Prospective concept and amendments are necessary in public policy, especially pension and health care system, because in combination with traditional approaches can create more justified distribution for older and younger generations.

Značaj i uloga lokalne samouprave u populacionoj politici Srbije

Author(s): Ana M. Gavrilović,Aleksandar L. Jugović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 1/2011

Population should be in the central focus of local community institutions and the local community may constitute its population policy which will supplement state population policy measures, considering the local specific various traditions, values and models of living. The paper's basic goal is to critically perceive the characteristics, significance and role of local self-governments in the current population policy of Serbia. Social situation and social policy characteristics in Serbia are analyzed in the context of the population policy. It is pointed out that poverty, unemployment, the economic crisis, the process of privatization, the issue of system decentralization and social expectations of the population, as current expressions of transition, all have a consequence on the demographic development and population policy. A critical estimation of the activities in the field of population policies which are carried out by local and provincial self-governments in Serbia in the last decade are brought into focus, with a special review to the activities of provincial and local governments in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina. As a result of the analysis it is pointed out that the population and social policy measures have been separated since the year 2000 and that they have been directed only to stimulating births and not child raising and that solutions regarding maternity leave brought improvements, however shortened maternity leave for the third child. The new conception of the population policy brought a whole series of restrictions such as: suspension of aid for newborn essentials; discontinuance of the right to maternity allowance; abolishing of compensation for preschool expenses for the third child; children’s allowance lost its population measures character along with considerable tightening of the census and decreasing of amount; the activities of preschool facilities have been reduced only to an educational function, and the terms for realizing rights to preschool education for children without parents and children with special needs have been tightened. The authors point out to the values and principles on which a contemporary population policy of local self-governments in Serbia should be established, such as: stability of established measures, a clear message on the needs of society, compatibility and not uniformity with measures of other bodies, compassion and uniformity with aspirations of couples and individuals, respect for the rights and freedom of man, information availability, equality of birth and raising children in measures. The establishment of population policy municipality funds is suggested and that local population policy measures are both material and non-material type, as well as in the form of organizational measures which could use the existing resources in a better way. The municipal assembly should create organizational suppositions by appointing a Population Policy Commission as its permanent body. The Commission would propose to the Municipal Assembly to adopt a strategic document – the Population Policy Strategy in the municipality. The Municipality Assembly should adopt the Action Plan for carrying out of the population policy every year, which would define the measures, bearers, terms and methods of evaluating measures with a plan for the following year. The population policy of the local self-government should be a constant process which manages, follows and evaluates, which is public and which understands the engagement of competent people, participation of citizens-volunteers and civil organizations.

Предотвратимая смертность в регионах Российской Федерации

Author(s): Tamara Pavlovna Sabgayda / Language(s): Russian Issue: 2/2011

The current trends of avoidable mortality, which is an integral indicator of health system performance, were analyzed. The paper discusses the regional heterogeneity of levels and trends in avoidable mortality in the Russian Federation. Also, it contains the analysis of impact of the financial costs of public health on avoidable mortality in regions with different levels of economic development. The last 20-years period was studied, which includes a stage of crisis as well as a social recovery phase. The official data of the State Statistics Committee were analyzed. In Russia, all death cases are registered in accordance to the international classification ICD-10. Special computer program summarizes death cases from preventable causes, and calculates the standardized rates for the population aged from 5 to 64 years. The old European standard of population age structure is used. Estimates of avoidable mortality were made in accordance with the European approach, under which avoidable mortality accumulates deaths of persons aged from 5 to 64 years due to 34 causes and 4 classes of causes. These 38 causes are divided into 3 groups according to three levels of diseases prevention. The level of avoidable mortality in the different regions varies up to 8 times. That is comparable to the difference between Russia and the countries of European Union in 1994. This gap is due to the coexistence of different stages of epidemiological development among the regions in Russia. When death rates increased, it is shown that mortality from causes which are preventable by measures of primary and tertiary prevention increased to a greater extent than mortality from the causes which depend from measures of secondary prevention. Therein, the largest growth of observed mortality was due to low quality of medical care in case of males (group 3), and due to causes which are preventable by measures of primary prevention in case of females (group 1). When mortality was reduced, the rates of change for causes in groups 1 and 3 were approximately the same for both sexes. Avoidable mortality due to late detection of malignant tumors (group 2) has been changed the least. Preventable component defines over 80% of the regional differences in death rates. In 2009, the level of avoidable mortality differed more than fourfold among different regions of the Russia. Similarly, the difference in the level of unavoidable mortality was 1.3-fold and 1.7-fold, for males and females respectively. Proportion of deaths from preventable causes in the total sum of death cases varies from 40% till 75%. Funding for comprehensive programs of public health to a greater extent stimulates the reduction in mortality from preventable causes of the first group. Mortality connected with quality of medical care is more determined by socio-political situation in the country than by regional health care expenses. Based on these results, it is concluded that the action plans to reduce mortality in Russia must have a strong regional specificity, different targets and indicators. Using the proportion of preventable causes, it is possible to separate the regions into groups with different ratios of death determinants, which, therefore, require different approaches to reduce mortality.

Career Planning Tendencies of Students: An Implementation on Students of Karabuk University Business Faculty

Author(s): Fatih Bayram / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2017

Almost 150 of the approximately 200 universities in Turkey have a faculty of management, which is also commonly named as faculty of administrative sciences and economics. Approximately 500 thousand students graduate from these departments each year and they step into the business life. The purpose of this study is to determine the career plans of sophomores studying in business or other relevant departments. In this perspective, the method of case study, which is accepted among qualitative research designs, was used. A document analysis was implemented for the case study. Moreover, the words and the themes which the students use to find out their career plans were classified. The results obtained from this study clearly indicate that students pay more importance to public sector exams or other standardized tests with the hope of finding a good job in the public sector, and therefore it is revealed that the university education focuses on institutional objectives which remain quite below the expectations of the sector. Furthermore, there is common belief that individual and patronage relationships play an important role in finding satisfactory jobs. In addition to the economic and political conjuncture, it may be stated that curriculum of education does not encourage students for entrepreneurship.

Działania pozorne w programowaniu strategicznym jednostek samorządu terytorialnego

Author(s): Joanna Frątczak-Mueller / Language(s): Polish Issue: 7/2016

The subject of analyses is the functional aspect of the local governments’ practice in the sphere of strategic planning. The author of the article, exploring the data from the analysis carried out in 2015 on a sample of 158 strategic documents, is looking for answers to the question of the causes and occurrences of making wrong strategic decisions in programming the development of municipalities and counties. Referring to the concept of apparent actions she identifies the fictitious character of the undertaken actions. The author defines the scope, formation mechanisms and the estimated consequences of the actions.

Wielowymiarowa Analiza Procesu Kształtowania Się Cen Na Lokalnym Rynku Nieruchomości Przy Użyciu Metody Drzew Regresyjnych C&RT

Author(s): Mariusz Dacko,Katarzyna Szajdecka / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2015

Attention of rational purchaser or seller of real estate is focused on the prices and properties of similar real estates. In the light of the theory of valuation, differentiation in prices on the local market is explained by variation in a few most important properties of marketed real estate. Thus, in the practice of valuation, a important issue is to decide which of many possible attributes are significant and what is their individual contribution to the market price that can be achieved. In this paper, this problem has been solved using the model of regression trees (C&RT). The study covered undeveloped land designed in local plans for single-family housing development, situated on the northern outskirts of Krakow. A regression tree permitted a simple assessment of the impact of the different attributes on real estate prices. This method enables prediction of the market value, but it requires knowledge of at least several tens, or preferably many hundreds, of transactions relating to similar real estates. For that reason, it is predestined for mass valuations.

Układy hybrydowe jako jeden ze sposobów zapewnienia wzrostu bezpieczeństwa energetycznego Polski

Author(s): Marcin Kostrzewa / Language(s): Polish Issue: 24/2016

The article describes and analyzes the idea of hybrid systems introduced to Polish Law by amended Renewable Energy Sources Act dated 22nd of June 2016. The application of hybrid systems will lead electricity producers to a bit closer free-market idea. Cheap but not always available electicity generated by wind power plants can be easily supplemented by biomass combustion installation or other technology. This will significantly rise the availability of the whole system resulting in wind farm generation uncertainty reduction and contributing to the increase of Poland's energy security.

Teoria Szarych Systemów A Prognozowanie W Naukach Społecznych. Przyczynek Do Dyskusji

Author(s): Łukasz Donaj / Language(s): Polish Issue: 10/2017

The aim of the publication is to present selected forecasting problems in social sciences. The article focuses on the method of Grey Theory System. Particular attention is paid to the complexity of such systems as the political system, and consequently the shortcomings of traditional research methods such as system analysis. The purpose of the publication is to signal the use of such an exotic “methodology” for political science as grey-scale methodology and fuzzy modelling for forecasting political phenomena.

The Challenges of Automobile-Dependent Urban Transport Strategy

Author(s): Miomir Jovanović / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2015

The fundamental aims of sustainable urban development and the pro-automobile oriented economic development are on a collision course. It is obvious that automobile-dependent urban development is under heavy/powerful influence of the automobile lobby (automobile and oil industries, along with construction). In this domain famous land-use-transportation studies (or ‘grand transportation studies’) are, unfortunately, still prevailing - a vicious circle of self-fulfilling prophecy of congestion, road building, sprawl, congestion and more road building. Until recently, it was commonly thought that investment in public transport was not economically sustainable and that focusing on the development of the automobile industry and financing the construction of roadways stimulated economic growth. In this paper we clearly show that automobile industry is now overcapitalized, less profitable than many other industries (and may become even less profitable in the future), that transport market is characterized with huge distortions (more than a third of motor-vehicle use can be explained by underpriced driving), while new road investment does not have a major impact on economic growth (especially in a region with an already well-developed infrastructure), and that pro-automobile transport strategy inexorably incurs harmful global, regional and local ecological consequences.

Spatial Characteristics of the Podrinje Region

Author(s): Dragana Popović / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2015

Podrinje region, i.e. the area from the both sides of the Drina River, abounds with extraordinary natural and anthropogenic values, and it represents the area for development of sustainable tourism. Even though this area has a long tradition in tourism, this industry is still being developed spontaneously and without integrated plan. Due to the lack of long tradition in tourism, it leads to inadequate use of natural and human resources for the purpose of general economic and tourist development. The mail goal of this paper is to highlight the significance of spatial planning in the creation of regional and integrated tourist product, which will contribute to tourism and economic development of the region, as well as provide long-term benefits on local, regional, national and international level.

Территориальное планирвание в Pоссии

Author(s): Zora Živanović / Language(s): Russian Issue: 1/2014

Территориальное планирование в России имеет долгую традицию. Однако, после распада СССР некоторое время наблюдалась тенденция отрицания важности разработки плановых документов и их значения для управления процессом развития. Дисконтинуитет, наступивший в результате этой тенденции, привел к некоторой нестабильности территориального планирования в сегодняшней России. Повторная актуализация деятельности в области разработки плановых документов, связана с принятием «Градостроительного кодекса» 2004 г. Эта деятельность затруднена недостатком релевантных кадров, отсутствием ясной теорико-методологической основы, неопределенным отношением к существующим социально-экономическим стратегиям развития и др. Несмотря на непростые условия, в последние несколько лет, наблюдается бурное развитие территориального планирования на всех территориальных уровнях. Между тем, по оценкам специалистов, количество не сопровождается соответствующим качеством.

Role of Local Community in Tourism Development - Case Study Village Zabrega

Author(s): Sanja Pavlović,Jovana Veljković,Marija Belij / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2014

Studies and researches on the role of a local community in tourism development of rural areas emphasize the significance of inhabitants’ attitudes about the state and perspectives of this activity. In this context, in the professional literature, the term CBT (community-based tourism) is used, which implies the involvement of local communities and planning of tourism development. The aim of the study is to determine the local population’s influence on starting an initiative for a tourist arranging of the village Zabrega in the Municipality of Paraćin, especially the sacral objects in the Crnica River Gorge. The following methods were applied: method of direct observation, analysis, synthesis, interview and survey in which the questions were of a closed and open type. Results of the research survey were analyzed in the software package for statistical processing and analysis of the data SPSS 20.00. It has been stated that the population has a positive attitude about the Society Petrus, which is the main organizer of the activities when the prosperity of the village Zabrega is in question, and that the local community is interested in engaging in the tourist activities, as demonstrated by numerous practical examples.

Development of Transport Infrastructure as Precondition of Economy and Tourism Development – Case Study Municipality Of Negotin

Author(s): Velimir Šećerov,Dejan Filipović,Bogdan Lukić,Nikola Ristić / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2013

Developed transport network is a precondition for economic and tourism development of areas and largely follows and allows the development of human activities. If it is developing without plan, spontaneous and without coordination it may be a limit to the overall development. The aim of research was to define developmental basis for the revitalization, improvement and construction of transport infrastructure in the municipality of Negotin. The paper will present the mutual interaction and functional connectivity of planning solutions for development of transport infrastructure and development of economic and tourism, as well as the impact which planning solutions have on the evolvent of other spatial and city functions

Stohastička projekcija stanovništva centralne Srbije na osnovu empirijskih projekcionih grešaka

Author(s): Vladimir Nikitović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 1/2007

Based on the example of the forecast of the population of Central Serbia for the 2005-2032 period, the basic probabilistic concept in forecasting the trends of demographic components of population development have been presented. The stochastic element of forecast is based on the analysis of empirical forecast errors of corresponding indicators of demographic development. The analysis frameworks were forecasts of official bureaus of statistics published during the second half of the 20th century. The statistical distribution of probability for chosen forecast parameters were formed around so called middle variant of corresponding indicators in the current national forecast of population, published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) for the period 2002-2032. The basic characteristics of the probabilistic approach of forecasting were presented through mutual comparison of the main methodological assumptions, namely though comparative demographic-statistical valorization of results with traditional deterministic concept, represented by forecasts of RSB. The stochastic forecast of the population of Serbia clearly indicated to the key advantages of this approach: methodological consistency in quantifying demographic indicators as well as the possibility of transparent usage of results in numerous aspects of social planning. In this way the significance of the necessity for the elaboration of a studious national forecast of the population of Serbia completely based on a stochastic basis has been stressed, regardless of the still-present restrictions in the development of the probabilistic approach.

Значај и изазови туристичке политике у савременом свету

Author(s): Mikica Sibinović,Andrijana Mirković,Dobrica Jovičić / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 3/2012

Raising awareness in expert circles and the general public about the heterogeneity of effects caused by tourism (economic, social, cultural, ecological), imposed the need for organized guidance of development of this activity and its placement under the framework of public (government) policy. Accordingly, today in almost all developed tourist countries are being used different instruments to control the development of this complex phenomenon of the modern age. In this paper, special attention is paid to the analysis of the role, importance, models, processes of development and implementation of tourism policy, in the context of the general policy and other sectoral policies brought by governments in developed tourist countries and countries trying to become such. Tourism policy today is the starting point of the thinking process in the tourism industry. It is focused on directing the development of tourism at all levels (international, national, regional, local), that is, it must create a long-term and integral development perspective.

Стратешки приступ планирању управљања отпадом у Републици Србији – стање и перспективе

Author(s): Danijela Obradović-Arsić,Dejan Filipović / Language(s): Serbian Issue: 4/2012

For the last couple of years the Republic of Serbia adopted the basic postulates of waste management compliant with EU experiences. Waste management system involves a set of measures and activities aimed at waste quantities reduction, its reuse, appropriate waste handling and hygienic disposal of the remaining waste. All the mentioned processes, within the waste management system, have been defined by strategic and planning documents adopted at the state level. The strategic and planning documents come from primary legislation and from a series of by-laws adopted in the last three to four years. This paper provides a strategic approach to waste management planning by way of the analysis of documents and policies and the analysis of the current situation of municipal waste and special waste streams management. Specific guidelines have been recommended i.e. the prospects of waste management have been analyzed taking into account the current level of development, on the one side, and the necessity of regarding the standards and principles of sustainable waste management in accordance with EU experiences, on the other side. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 176017]