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The article is a personal reflection on old age. On the basis of his own memories author (born in 1934) sets the basic life tasks of old age as an important period of life, forecasting very important challenges of ageing for the future.
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City planning is a complex task and through this work we face the space and natural resources that expose the exploitation (that are to be exploited and prone to unsustainable change). Often without environmental responsibility and the imperative of creating certain measures we make superstructure no matter how much the environment may be disrupted, and whether such relationships create a better society, better network of urban settlements and a better man. At that may also affect our knowledge which is often due to a variety of doctrines and legislative regulations that are applied in the planning and management space. From this it can be seen that modern architecture did not contribute to the creation of better cities. Also, urban planning is mainly restricted to the regulation and it neglected the creative action, regional-planning is lost in theoretical research, while the consideration of the whole problem is abandoned. In addition to this, in today’s transitional terms and the domineering (dominant) urban crisis unsustainable combination and identification of the “2D” and the “3D” terminology is recognizable, which is only indicators that in the field of urban planning some transitional trends are prevailing. This unsustainable state of affairs in the transitional planning of urban areas can be applied in the most suitable way to pseudo-urbanization, sub-urbanization, unbalanced eco-reciprocity, non-standard construction of the urban tissue, discontinuity inherited and newly constructed urban substance. In this regard, consequently expressed negative environmental legacy of reproduction and the increased effect of the negative consequences of greenhouse gases from the threatening climate change, only shows that urban planners are not sinless and, they more or less (un)consciously complicit and participate in the contamination of urban and environment. In the end, it definitely guides us to the need to leave or transformation of the previous concept of planning and urbanization, which of us greatly and led to today's threatening effects of greenhouse gases. On this bases the need to articulate the sustainable integrative concept can be recognized with a high degree of urban eco-awareness, knowledge and skills of all professions that participate in the planning and construction of sustainable eco-urban development built environment.
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Since the adoption of the Planning and Construction Law, 2003., started the producing of the series of spatial plans, among which the most dominant position have the spatial plans of municipalities. Legal obligation and, less frequently, the understanding of the necessity of adopting and implementing this type of plan, contributed to the fact that they are made today in the most cases. Compliance with the procedures of making the local (municipal) spatial plan is an assumption to his adoption, while its implementation is left to the decision makers at the local level and capacities that local self-governments has. In order to implement the plan as much as possible, necessary is to prescribe the clear measures and instruments for his realization and to define the precise implementation mechanisms that will contribute to his implementation. For this reason this paper aims to highlight some examples of the past practice in making the planning documentation and to point out some problems in their implementation that may occur due to a different understanding of the municipal spatial plan importance and his implementation mechanisms. The intention is to emphasis the strategic component of the municipal spatial plan and its developmental importance, in relation to the technical and regulatory dimension that such kind of a document has and which can be often found in practice through the insistence on the rules of planning and construction as the only implementation mechanisms.
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The natural components are very important aspect of human life and work. The nature is place is place wherever to happened majority of human activity, working vacation and survival, although are some areas is technicality and desecrating to denaturalization. Because of that, it is necessary to study all valid of natural factors, when to programs new contents which are in function of human living, work or holiday. We can find great differences in exploration of some natural factors depending of level in programming of development (general or detail urban planning and strategic programming or local community or projecting).
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Space-functional proportions and relations, among settlements, is the starting point in planning the development of community, region or state. This work treats the elementary characteristics of space-functional proportions and relations of the settlements in the municipality of Pećinci, in the fact the hierarchy, spacely and historycal characteristics in the settlement net of community Pećinci.
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The strategy of local development as a planning document is aimed at pointing developmental directions, which result in the improvement of inhabitants’ life quality. Its success depends not only on the elaboration of a development concept but also on its effective implementation and updating. Unfortunately, it happens that developmental strategies are not properly implemented, or its execution is abandoned. The main reason are barriers, which can appear and disenable or hinder strategy implementation. The authors discuss the results of undertaken questionnaire surveys in the range of developmental strategy implementation in cities with county rights in Poland. The barriers of strategy implementation and also the premises of strategy updating are presented.
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Estimating the financial implications of territorial development plans is a complex task. That complexity is a derivative of: detailed planning decisions, planning a time horizon, and the multidimensional category of territorial development. Referring to the above operationalization of methods of projections, the rapidly increasing difficulties in the conceptualization of analytical methods is visible as well as the availability of the necessary informative material. For these reasons, the development strategies of many units have no estimates giving answers to basic questions of: how much the implementation of a strategy will cost? what financial potential of sources is, what can make it possible to involve the strategy implementation? These are the issues and questions targeted in the article. The empirical exemplification of the results is the project, currently being updated – The Cracow Development Strategy 2030. The article consists of three chapters and conclusions. These chapters substantively develop: (–) the issue of the financial implications of planning decisions, (–) a proposal for a methodology for estimating financial resources for the strategy implementation and estimating the financial potential of its implementation, (–) realization of the proposed methodology for the project of SRK 2030. Among the results of the research it can be pointed out, that the expenditures for the implementation of CDS will reach 11 billion PLN, while the financial potential fluctuates around 16 billion PLN.
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This article aims to analyse and evaluate the implementation of the strategic policy intelligent tools to determine the vision of the spatial development of the territory. Based on a review of sixteen regional spatial development plans proposed strategic policy intelligent tools at various stages of adoption planning studies.
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The article discusses how to turn the bureaucratic offices of public institutions in the comfortable service centers, that will be able quickly, efficiently and competently to provide administrative services to citizens. It is proved that the strategy development for service centers providing administrative services to citizens in the public institutions should be based on the basis of continuous monitoring of citizens’ requests, learning difficulties, which arise at the stage of management and administration of individual services, and building a clear strategic plan for the prioritization of certain services. There should be some opportunities to motivate managers that provide direct administrative services. We propose the mechanism of strategic planning for service centers in state institutions that is based on innovation, and provides abilities to implement innovative procedure for public servicing to enhance the quality of administrative services and the level of customer satisfaction. It is found that such client oriented approach possible to achieve by reducing the time phases for administrative services, by optimization of the number of institutions that coordinate the implementation of administrative services, by motivating the high competence of perpetrators, and by the optimization of services documentary turnover.
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The concept, specifics and methodology of foresight are defined in the article; also the necessity of applying foresight investigations for the strategic planning in public organizations development is outlined. Benchmarking analysis of such investigation results based on the human capital development scenarios in Ukraine and Poland is carried out, in particular for the higher education development perspective in both countries.
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Over the past number of years, the public expenditures for childbirth-related leave benefits have more than doubled – in 2015 amounted to 0.7% GDP in relation to 0.3% GDP in 2002. This increase can mainly be attributed to the increased number of beneficiaries that grew consistently from 24 thousand in 2002 up to 40 thousand in 2015, despite the fact that the annual number of live births has been almost continually decreasing and the registered employment has dropped by almost 20 per cent in the observed period.One of the clear reasons explaining part of this increase is the extension of 3+ order of birth leaves in 2006, from one to two years, which can explain the increase of around 3.5 thousand of beneficiaries. Another reason is high number of beneficiaries using special child-care leave meant for parents with children with disabilities, but which, in reality, is very often used simply as the extension of parental leave. The average number of special child-care leave beneficiaries in the second half of 2015 amounted to 2.8 thousand. When these two effects are taken into account, we still notice significant increase of beneficiaries of around 10 thousand in the observed period. Fictitious employment during the pregnancy can explain this increase to some extent. Available data unambiguously show that a number of women formally employing during the second and third trimester of pregnancy has increased from 800 in 2002 to almost 3.5 thousand monthly average in the second half of 2015. There are two flaws of the childbirth-related leave programme in Serbia, which together lead to the constant increase of the number of beneficiaries. First is the lack of flexibility of the programme, both in terms of eligibility for acquiring the right as well as in terms of flexibility in use. Maternity/parental leave benefit may acquire only those in „standard employment” i.e. employed under employment contract (and entrepreneurs) while other type of contracts is not eligible. Second problem is the loophole in the benefit calculation method and the inadequate special child-care acquiring procedure which brings about the inclusion error. This results in the increase of generosity of the program, in a selective way, which in turn jeopardizes the financial sustainability of the programme as a whole. The reform of the childbirth-related leave program should progress in two directions. First is the change of the benefit calculation method extending the calculation base period so that it disables misuse and inclusion error; enabling the right to those with flexible/non-standard employment; and tightening the eligibility criteria for special-care leave. Second array of reform should tackle the flexibility in use, allowing options such as taking a leave on part-time basis or taking longer periods of leave with lower benefits.
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The key to the future of any country in the modern world lies in the knowledge, skills and talent of its population. This gives a special importance to education through which human capital is created as an important component of national wealth. Different methods of measuring human capital are found in literature. There is a well-known division into monetary and non-monetary methods, with the latter being specifically addressed in the article.Education plays an important role in achieving sustainable development. Through education, knowledge about sustainable development is acquired while human resources that are capable and willing to achieve this development are created. Education, just like sustainable development, has a long-time perspective. In both cases, the interests of the future are respected when making decisions in the present. The impact of education on sustainable development is manifested through all three of its dimensions – economic, social and environmental.The key role of education for achieving sustainable development has been globally recognized and embedded in relevant United Nations documents, including a new global development agenda by 2030, focusing on the Sustainable Development Goals, of which Objective 4 explicitly refers to education. The European Union also pays considerable attention to education for the future in the context of the commitment of its members to achieve sustainable development. Serbia, at least declaratively, follows it, given the orientation of the country to join this regional integration.The future of education is under the strong influence of global mega trends, especially the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which strongly influences the world of work and the necessary knowledge and skills. During the earlier industrial revolutions, it took several decades to build appropriate education and training systems, but there is no time for that now. Changes must be anticipated, and reactions should be quick.The quality of educational systems of countries around the world and their preparedness for the challenges of the new age can be evaluated on the basis of the results of the Program for International Student Assessment – PISA, the most important research in the field of education, which, under the auspices of the OECD, tests the knowledge and skills of fifteen-year-olds, and relying on the composite indicator introduced by the World Economic Forum – Global Human Capital Index (GHCI). The results for Serbia are generally discouraging, but in some segments, they point to the country’s hidden potentials that should be activated.Education represents the development opportunity of Serbia at the threshold of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. As a small and economically underdeveloped country, Serbia should not remain at the margin of events, in the role of a passive observer. On the contrary, through adapting its education system to the demands of time by adequate financial and institutional support, thus improving human capital of the people, Serbia can find its place in a changing labor market and create preconditions for dynamic and sustainable economic development.
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The headship rates method (HRM) of household projections based on the share of household heads in the total population of the same demographic characteristics (age, sex, nationality, marital status, etc.) is the most commonly used method, especially by statistical institutes and planning institutions. The specific rates of household heads by age are calculated by dividing the number of household holders of a certain age with the total number of residents of the appropriate age. The future number of households is then simply projected on the basis of population projections by age and assumptions about the future changes of HR. The HRM is based on the projection of the future age structure of the population. In that sense, the choice of methods of population projection, as well as the method of projecting HR-s have determining impact on the outcome of household projections. Given the methodological inconsistency typical for official population projections in Serbia and significant differences in addressing uncertainty of the future population change between deterministic and probabilistic approach in making population projections, the decision to use a probabilistic projection of the population of Serbia as the basis for calculating the future number of households and their structure according to the age of the household head proved to be a logical choice. However, as the basic aim of this article is to show the simple method of household projections, the above-mentioned stochastic projection is used in utterly deterministic manner. The median of the prediction interval of the population distributed across age is interpreted as the most probable future, or as a prognosis. The HR-s based on the age structure estimates and estimated number of households by age of the household head from Household budget survey (HBS) are used for the purpose of HR projecting so that the number of observations would be large enough for calculating inclination parameters. The obtained rates show a tendency to decline during the observed period, however, in certain age categories, the rates are expressed by extreme values that are certainly the result of random sampling in the HBS for the purpose of analyzing consumption rather than analyzing the demographic characteristics of households, and must be taken with a certain reserve. Although the tendency of declining rates in most age categories is not unexpected, surely the intensity of decline is unexpected. For this reason, in the formation of the regression function, the extreme values of the rates are intentionally excluded in the following way: after calculating the regression line parameters, all the values of the rates that deviate from the regression values by more than 20 per cent are rejected, after which the regression parameters are recalculated. On the basis of the second calculation of the regression line, parameters are obtained. However, as the obtained parameters led to unexpectedly large HR changes according to the age of the household head until the end of the projection period (2040), it was assumed that the inclination parameter (b) would be reduced by 10 per cent annually compared to the start year of the regression line. On the basis of the rates according to the 2011 census data and the hypothesis on the slowdown of the observed trends in the future, future HR-s are calculated. Furthermore, based on the projected HR-s by age and future age structure of the population, the number of households by the age of the household head for the projection years is calculated. Based on the results of the projection, the total number of households will be reduced on average by over 11 thousand households per year. Also, compared to the 2011 census, it can be expected that the number of households in all age groups will be reduced by the end of the projection period, except in the category of household heads aged 65 and over that stabilizes to around 900 thousand households by the end of the projection period. Due to the decline in the number of households, the average household size will be reduced by 0.18 members in 2040 compared to 2011, from 2.89 to 2.71. The largest number of households in Serbia are family households, the share of single person households in the population under the age of 50 is small, and the structural barriers to the establishment of an indigenous household in persons under the age of 30 are significant. All of this makes it difficult to withdraw par-allels with other European populations in terms of a possible path that the population and households in Serbia should follow in the projection period. Some of the projections of households produced by the HRM of a newer date for populations also found in the post-transition demographic stage show that the age at which the household is based, the mechanisms that affect the generation, change, and extinguishing of the household, which are characteristic for each society, result in significantly different values of age-specific HR-s. Of course, HR-s by age vary considerably among different populations. It is obvious that the key differences in Serbia in relation to other countries occur precisely at the age when individuals base their own household. The existence of postponing marriages and parenting that is recognized as key life-changing milestones in the transition to adulthood and the founding of one’s own household, the chronic lack of systematic housing policy towards young people and high youth unemployment are the main causes of the late establishment of their own household and the maintenance of low HR-s for persons under 30 years of age in Serbia. Nevertheless, during the first decade of the 21st century, there is a certain shift in the financial independence of young people, which gives some hope that in the future HR-s in the category between the ages of 30 and 39 can be slightly increased, which is confirmed on the basis of the sample of households from the HBS for the period 2006–2013. Namely, the tendency of a slight increase in the value of the rate for persons aged between 30 and 39 years is certainly the result of an increase in the age at which the household is based, which can be noticed on the basis of the reduction in rates for persons under the age of 30. On the other hand, a certain decline in the value of the rate characteristic for the households of the holders in their middle age (between 40 and 64 years of age) has an explanation in the increase in number and share of multi-family households in the period 1991–2011, especially in urban areas. During the 1990s, in the conditions of a deep socio-economic crisis, with the continuation in the next decade during the transition of the economic system, in conditions of significant poverty and the phenomenon of the re-traditionalization of partnership arrangements within multi-family households, it is obvious that a significant number of families in the middle of their life cycle lived in within parental households whose carriers are aged 65 and over. In fact, as the increase in the HR-s during the thirtieth year of age is the result of deprivation of rates in younger persons, this is, by and large, a rise in rates for persons aged 65 and over due to a reduction in rates among carriers aged between 40 and 64 years. The presented method of household projections is not characterized by methodological sophistication, elegance and precision in reflecting changes in the structure of households according to the family composition and a detailed presentation of changes in the family status of individuals, but it certainly represents an simple way of household projecting according to the age distribution of carriers, the average size and the number of households. It seems that this approach, based on the stability of age-specific rates of household heads, without getting involved in the field of sociology, is quite precise in the medium term, especially given the simplicity in household projecting based on HRM.
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The article deals with the theoretical-applied aspects of free time and leisure through prism of sociology of free time; defines the basic classification kinds of free time activity; researches the basic kinds of free time regulation (social and selfregulative), the levels of regulation and its perspective direction; investigates selfmanagement of free time and the types of selfregulation; studies the basic kinds budget planning for free time and the causes that influence its rational use; substantiates the basic trend and problems of free time and leisure. Time component of social time, released from industrial and domestic affairs, which covers the area of free activity. Leisure is part of free time, which includes a set of activities designed to meet the physical, spiritual and social needs of people in their free time. Recreational activity is carried out in their free time and in line with specific interests, goals that poses a personality. The amount of free time is now almost similar to the amount of professional work, and in some sociodemographic groups, including young people, and even exceeds it. Structure of free time the established habits and the possibility of it affecting the overall human development, both formed values and skills determine the choice of a way of entertainment. In turn, the spiritual identity formed by the possibilities at a certain stage of development to make their own cultural values and selection, learning them, convert to personal and valuable characteristics. A special place in the sociology of free time and leisure to the problem of classification (grouping) of activities in their free time. Its first implementation is possible, depending on the principle ways to use free time from productive human activities, tasks and functions otherness working and leisure time, the significance and value of various activities for human life and society. In the process of classification classes in his spare time should be considered that the two most important part – Leisure and more "elevated activity" is close to, but not equivalent. Leisure – this time sessions, during which people restore physical, mental and psychic powers spent at work, at home and in the concept of “leisure” is used as a synonym for free time. In particular, this culture is individual consumption (watching TV, reading, listening to music), communication, exercise, spectacular public consumption culture (concerts, performances, shows, sports competitions), exercise, entertainment, sports, passive rest (sleep walking without a purpose, peace) and others. By the time more sublime activities should include time on activities that contribute to the development of as many essential powers of the individual, his improvement, though they may also include a leisure and ushlyahetnyuvaty and enrich it. Compared to leisure time more elevated activity – is mainly creation, manifestation of social activity, increase focus, intensity of spiritual and physical strength, initiative and energy, the development of a single person / In the most general form of free time adjustment process starts with identifying issues and completed the achievement of the expected results. The general direction of the free time given by the social environment, and quality content it ultimately depends on the person. Key, which identifies a person in his spare time, can be of two types: 1) a significant and direct impact society, for example, training on the job, social and political activities, regular classes in technical, artistic collectives, groups, sports clubs; 2) self-education, individual creativity, physical training, communication, etc., which are less exposed to direct or influence the public is not exposed. It should be noted that the general direction of the free time given by the social environment, quality content and it ultimately depends on the person. Key, which identifies a person in his spare time, can be of two types: 1) a significant and direct impact society, for example, training on the job, social and political activities, regular classes in technical, artistic collectives, groups, sports clubs; 2) self-education, individual creativity, physical training, communication, etc., which are less exposed to direct or influence the public is not exposed. The study of trends and problems of leisure activities and more sublime in his spare time, ways to overcome the existing contradictions in this area promotes spiritual needs and interests of the people and thus - the growth of culture, they use their free time, humanization and democratization of the latter. The pace of change in our society, consciousness and lifestyle of people, the rejection of stereotypes in behavior and activities usezahalna reassessment of values require new studies in all areas of life, including in the sphere of research of free time.
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This study examines the relationship between the education as a social subsystem and the relation of other social subsystems in the context of the issue of migration: on the one hand, as possible areas of research in educational science; on the other hand, it analyzes the chances of pedagogical responses to migration challenges in a complex approach.
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The aim of this paper is to find answers - based on the history of the Roma - to the question of how their future will develop in Hungary. It examines the two distinctive types of research on the Roma. In the 70’s and 80’s the main research into the Roma was characterised by analysis of their social situation and poverty. From the 90’s, however, a line of research developed which treated the Roma population as an independent cultural ethnicity and political community. In our opinion, this latter trend will determine the coming decades as well. The question is, whether it will happen on a peaceful, negotiated way, or with more impatient methods.
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R.Hartli formula describes the relationship between two fundamental concepts of mathematics – probability of events that have happened and the amount of information about this event. The formula is derived from the perceptions of the likelihood of getting useful results during repeated the experiment with equal probability testing as expected and has the form: P = 1 / 2n where n – number of trials testing. The value of 2n, therefore, is responsible for the reduction in uncertainty about the object of study in the course of its testing and describes the function of the increasing number of useful information about it. The greater the value of this quantity, the lower the probability to find the new characteristics of the object during its testing. The value of "n" can be calculated by the formula R. Hartli: n = – log2P. This characteristic earned the name "bits of information". Commodity Act states: "the more useful information about the product the higher the quality and therefore the cost.". Thus, the value of the goods "C" increases according to the formal definition of a trend to decrease uncertainty regarding the research object, namely C = α 2n, where: α – is the coefficient of proportionality, which indicates the presence of base assessment is nonzero and described specific unit measurement – Hryvnia (or other units of measurement value) for bits of information. The validity of this statement can show the analysis of the sample value indicators paintings presented at the Ukrainian market (Figure 1). The value of "n" indicates the number of positive information about the object of study in bits. We see that the correspondence of theoretical assumptions to observable characteristics is very high (correlation index K.Pirson is 0.98). The next step is to involve art research for a robust analysis of art works in groups formed by the fragmentation of the whole range of specific indicators on the submitted schedule. The result was the selection of criteria for quality assessment: "The level of artistic elaboration of the idea of work", "The level of popularity of the idea of work", "The level of technical skill of the author" and "level of public recognition of the author's work." Consequently, the graph relative value of art directly in line with the number of positive information about a work and thus forecasting the cost associated with quality indicators. However, for the works of art of a very high level of recognition, such as for example a work by Gustav Klimt "Portrait Aled Bloch-Bauer" for those listed above criterion is not sufficient, that the information is no scientific attribution. In this case, to calculate the number of evaluation criteria necessary for the description of quality, we recommend inverse calculations. Using the value recorded when it is open sales (135 million US dollars), and a more meaningful assessment protocol, calculate the index 2n, which will be 217 = 131072 (17 bits of useful information). Knowing the specific cost of painting (7.239 USD / dm.kv.), Expect the current value of the canvas: C = 7, 239 USD / dm.kv. x 190, 44 dm.kv. x 131072 = 180 695 224 US dollars. This assessment determines the level of potential financial losses of World Culture in the event of loss of this work.
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Predicting the cost of cultural values should be considered only in the context of mathematical methods of forecasting, as well as the principles and approaches developed throughout the history of mankind. History of mathematical prediction indicates the presence of regular sequence improvements applied from a primitive-lookingmachine calculation inaccessible distances in the ancient world, further development of the apparatus of algebra, probability theory Connection methods with algebra, and opening K.F.Gaussom open-M.Lezhandrom, multivariateregression, opening optimizing forecasting systems based on calculation methods of multivariate regression in the works V.V.Leontev and I.I. Schmalhausen transition to prediction systems with elements of selective selection of the most probable solutions A.G. Ivakhnenko and finally to the prediction systems with elements of adaptive modeling intuitive and cyclic forecasting, attracting elements random migration parameters and other attributes of the evolutionary forecasting. Modern worldview indicates the need for the implementation of the model for all nine traits in the evolutionary process of predictive algorithms. The general trend of the development of mathematical forecasting methods also indicates that the main difference of subjective forecasting methods and experiences in own who man. This difference is broadly, the presence in the subject's subconscious mind and can not be considered interpretation as positive or negative. Thus, the modern mathematical forecasting is clear sound thanks mechanisms calculation, while the results of forecasting undertaken man have subjective symptoms that contains the secret organization of the unconscious. Today, there are many research papers devoted to the topic of predicting the value of cultural property, offered interesting proprietary methods developed regulations establish relevant training programs, conducting scientific and practical conferences and other forums. Post acquired urgency and was wondering how to market participants as cultural monuments and for financiers and museum professionals. Among a variety of proposed methods most interesting are those that are based on the latest achievements of mathematical prediction and those who have new ideas and a new level of humanitarian and development of general reality. In the history of mathematical forecasting of the most revolutionary distinguish the following stages: the allocation of human wildlife due to the emergence and development of the capacity for abstract thought and observation and analysis of causal relationships, the emergence of ancient Mesopotamia, Egypt and Greece arithmetical methods of calculating the unknown and geometric methods of calculation reach distances. Further, the emergence and development of medieval history and, later, the discovery of Blaise Pascal (1623 – 1662), Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665) and Jakob Bernoulli (1654 -1705), who studied the laws of gambling, laid the foundations probability theory and discovered mankind opportunities to work with arbitrary values and systems that develop randomly. There are opportunities to perform such predictions, which is a place for assessing the likelihood of events does not necessarily follow. The next step in the development of mathematical prediction of achievement were K.F.Hausa (1777-1855), which is about 1795-1798 years, exploring the phenomenon of arbitrary algebraic techniques deviation values of two empirical observations and related features, invented a universal way of finding the optimal parameters for linear equations of mathematical approximation of their addiction. Extensive practical use Gauss in many fields of science, mathematics stimulated the improvement of forecasting methods and determined the emergence of modern multivariate regression analysis, the implementation of which had a powerful influence on all further development of science. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries the most successful mathematical prediction was in biology and economics. In 20-ies multivariate analysis formed the basis of modern macroeconomics (V.V.Leontyev, 1905 -1999), a new evolutionary theory in biology (I.I. Schmalhausen 1884-1948), linear prediction and modeling the behavior of complex systems, dynamically developing. The discovery of the theory of information and the rapid development of computer technology, gave birth to the idea of creating an artificial intelligence, the operation of which is also described on the basis of mathematical parametric prediction. It was found that the most perfect machine forecasting has become such a synthesized human computational system that have the ability to develop and self-improvement will evolve and will be the ability to subjective thinking. The work of numerous scholars of the twentieth century give a hope (OH Ivakhnenko 1913-2007) thanks concepts of the modern theory of evolution (V.V.Indutny 1988), in which the prediction is based on computer simulation mechanisms inherent in the evolutionary process: the general direction prediction and the outcome of the interaction of systemic factors (interactivity), expanding the variety and variability of the results, and the cyclical nature of the fluctuation prediction, selection of the most advanced solutions, a hierarchical organization of intermediate and final conclusions; avtodestruktive regulation prediction results (partial liquidation of previous decisions), structural development of predictive models, the ability to heal itself of unwanted states.
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The hierarchical structure of the modern landscapes in Volyn’ region and in general inhabited landscapes was described. It was analyzed the dynamic of the area of the inhabited landscapes in the main places according to the use of natural resources. The schemes of maps of the inhabited landscapes in Volyn’ region was built. The zonal vision of the picture of the inhabited landscapes according to the natural conditions was investigated. The retrospective analysis of the theoretical and methodological aspects of the previous total experience gives the reason for the authors to consider that future landscape studying studios have an important practical meaning for the needs of the district planning and is one of the main ways of the regional investigations.
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Im Text illustriert der A utor anhand von Daten aus dem A LLBUS (Datenhandbuch A LLBUS-K umulation 1980-2006) und aus den M einungsumfragen des Instituts für Demoskopie A llensbach die aktuellen Tendenzen im Parteiensystem der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Der A utor beschäftigt sich zugleich mit der Problematik der Ä nderungen und der neusten Trends in der deutschen G esellschaft – zu nennen sind hier unter anderem folgende E rscheinungen: die E rosion Parteienbindungen und Loyalitäten, der Trend zur Individualisierung und die immer geringere Bereitschaft an Politik teilzunehmen. G leichzeitig beschreibt auch der Verfasser auch die Rolle der Unterschiede zwischen den Deutschen, die in Westen und in Osten (ehemalige Deutsche Demokratische Republik) wohnen und beleuchtet den E influss dieser Unterschiede auf die politischen E ntscheidungen der „Wessis“und der „Ossis“. A ußerdem bespricht man im Text neue K onstellationen im deutschen Parteiensystem, sowie auch präsentiert man die Prognosen der weiteren E ntwicklung des ganzen politischen Systems – insbesondere hinsichtlich der potenziell neuen M öglichkeiten der Regierungsbildung und der K oalitionen auf der Bundesebene. Zum Schluss konzentriert man sich auf die Rolle der G rünen Partei im deutschen Parteiensystem, die laut der M einung des A utors in der nächsten Zukunft noch größer als heutzutage sein könnte. M an bemerkt hier einerseits die fortschreitende A nnäherung der politischen Lager der G rünen und der Christdemokraten aus CDU/CSU, andererseits dagegen weist man auf die spezifische Position der G rünen Partei im ganzen politischen Spektrum Deutschlands hin. A ls Folge prognostiziert man – im Zusammenhang mit den Ä nderungen des politischen Systems, sowie auch den Tendenzen in der deutschen G esellschaft – die M öglichkeit der E ntstehung der ersten schwarzgrünen K oalition (CDU/CSU – G rüne) auf der Bundesebene.
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