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Understanding the future of relations between Russia and the West depends largely on how the war in Ukraine plays out. In this way, three possible scenarios need to be examined: a Ukrainian victory, a Russian victory, and a long, drawn-out stalemate.
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No one knows how the war in Ukraine will end. However, Russia’s weakening position in Ukraine may be an indication of something much greater internally. Three scenarios outlined below can help us understand what might be next for Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation.
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Any normalisation of relations with Russia will onlytake place once Moscow gives up its imperial ambitionsand pays for its crimes. There should be no notion ofa new policy towards the Kremlin without change at thetop and the complete removal of its threat to Europeansecurity. We cannot repeat the mistakes of 1991.
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Despite contentious differences in memory, Polish-Ukrainian relations have remained close and notably strong in important national moments. This reflects two aspects of Polish society: a generation of youth acclimated to supporting Ukrainian sovereignty with compassion, and a national memory politics which allows humanitarianism, but only when it fits into a politically suitable narrative.
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The reality in today’s Belarus is that of decreased enthusiasm and less social mobilisation. The ruling elite of the Lukashenka regime is still wielding power and a large part of the society that was active during the 2020 protests is now living abroad or imprisoned.
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The large shift that has taken place within Belarusian society has illustrated both a high demand for change and the loss of broad support for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. This has led the ruling elite to realise that the regime can no longer operate in the same conditions it had pre-2020. Serious restructuring was thus necessary to ensure that the regime maintains its overall control of the state and counters any form of anti-system civic activity.
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Despite being neighbours, the societies of Ukraineand Belarus know very little about each other. The Kremlin’s use of Belarusian land in its invasion of Ukraine suggests that this divide may persist into the future. However, it is clear that the two countries’ democratic populations will have great potential for cooperation in the years ahead.
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With regards to Belarus, it is difficult to ask Lithuanians, or actually any other neighbouring society, about how they perceive Belarusians. The truth is that in this country we are dealing with two entities: the official Belarus and the Belarus of the opposition.
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Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine has dramatically exacerbated Kyiv’s dependence on the West to keep the economy afloat. Ukraine’s finance ministry estimates that in 2022, 38.6 per cent of the country’s budget came from external donors in grants and credits while Ukraine’s GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund, contracted by a third.
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Poland responded generously to the mass inflowof refugees from Ukraine as Russia invaded in February last year. However, the need for help continues with every day of the war. While times are indeed hard for the country’s army of volunteers, they are determined to continue aiding people in their time of need.
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Since October 2022, Russia has been carrying out massive missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in order to force a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. Temporary breaks in the electricity supply have become an everyday reality. Yet, a lengthy blackout poses a threat to the lives of millions of people and needs to be counteracted at all costs. Ukrainians continue to adapt to these difficult circumstances.
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North Macedonia may not be the first country that comes to mind when discussing Russian propaganda. Despite this, the small Balkan state continues to grapple with consistent efforts by the Kremlin to influence domestic politics. Such campaigns are ultimately designed to challenge the nation’s continued desire to further integrate with the West through EU membership.
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The economic and political situation in Moldova, the small country to Ukraine’s southwest, remains tenable at best. While the country’s President Maia Sandu has shown resolve and used the situation to pursue the European path, not all Moldovans support her politics – especially those directly affected by the economic and energy crisis.
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Budapest’s readiness to block military andfinancial aid to Kyiv, delay EU sanctions againstRussia and its outspoken criticism thereof are creatingserious repercussions for the EU’s image as a foreignpolicy actor vis-á-vis Russia. These issues furtherindicate deep divisions among member states and callinto question European unity. They also reveal oneof the EU’s most discussed weaknesses, namely, itsinability to speak with one voice in foreign policy.
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Since February 24th 2022, Georgia’s economic ties and dependence regarding Russia have markedly increased, leading to heavy criticism of the Georgian Dream-led government about its lack of transparency around ties to Russian business interests. Most obvious among these concerns are those centred on the party’s founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire and former prime minister who made his fortune in Russia before entering Georgian politics.
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Had Moscow used cyber operations to substitute kinetic operations in February 2022, we would have seen a full-blown cyber war instead of a conventional invasion. In fact, the consequences of the pre-war period were modest and most of the actions taken seemed to be rushed or poorly planned. Russia failed to achieve its strategic objectives using cyber operations and the Kremlin concluded that its only option was to launch a military campaign.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been characterisedas the first full-scale “social media war”. Russia uses social media to not only spread propaganda but also the “fog of war”. Its efforts aim to both demonise Ukraine in the West and strengthen Russian support for the war.
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In the era of social divisions, public disputes and widespread polarisation of views, one phenomenon seems indisputable – social media has become an important element of life both in the private and public spheres. Understanding the peculiarities of these tools has also become an important social and business skill. Yet should social media management be considered a political and military competence as well? The Russian war in Ukraine suggests a positive answer. The terms “like”, “share”, “click”, “comment”, “tweet” or “swipe” have begun to have serious consequences andare – literally – a weapon of mass (media) destruction.
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Russia’s war against Ukraine proved to the world that battles do not happen only on the ground; they are also taking place online. After Russia’s invasion on February 24th, its neighbours, including Moldova, began facing many challenges: an economic crisis, a refugee influx, an energy crisis and even cyber-attacks.
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This research focuses on the assessment of post-traumatic growth (PTG) in an ongoing crisis situation – namely, the war in Ukraine. This research was designed as a crosssectional correlational study and was conducted 6 months after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The authors focused on the following sociodemographic aspects: gender, age, marital status, number of children, place of current residence (either within or outside Ukraine), subjective evaluation of financial state, satisfaction with current living conditions, and current employment status. Personal life-experiences of traumatic events were assessed using the Life Events Checklist (LEC-5); PTG was assessed using the PostTraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI). The study included 706 participants (age M = 32.1); 155 males and 541 females. Using one- and two-way ANOVA, we answered the following research questions: To what extent do individuals living in war-torn areas exhibit indications of PTG? Can sociodemographic variables serve as reliable predictors of PTG? How do levels of PTG differ between individuals residing in Ukraine and those living abroad? What is the relationship between PTG and war-related trauma? It was found that people living in war-torn areas exhibit moderate levels of PTG. Women are more prone to PTG than men; younger and older participants show higher levels of PTG, while middle-aged participants exhibit lower levels; and financial security increases PTG. Presence in Ukraine increases personal strength, while living outside of Ukraine increases the possibilities for new PTG strategies. Trauma exposure during the war does not increase levels of PTG.
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