EU’s anti-Covid-19 support for Eastern neighbors - on the basis of what criteria?

EU’s anti-Covid-19 support for Eastern neighbors - on the basis of what criteria?

Author(s): Denis Cenuşă / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; anti-Covid-19 support; Eastern neighbors;

As part of its global response to the Covid-19 crisis, the EU’s has announced a package of €962 million of support for the 6 Eastern neighbors, which is 1/3 out of the total amount directed to the whole neighborhood (€3.07 billion), along with €2.1 billion for the South, and a further €800 million for the Western Balkans and Turkey. These resources are significant, but large parts of them are the reallocation of the old unused funds.

The COVID-19 Crisis: how does the Republic of Moldova finance its budget deficit?

The COVID-19 Crisis: how does the Republic of Moldova finance its budget deficit?

Author(s): Dumitru Pîntea / Language(s): English

Keywords: COVID-19 Crisis; Republic of Moldova; budget deficit;

In addition to the threats related to the population’s health, the crisis generated by the Covid-19 pandemic presents the first economic challenges. Quarantine and social distancing measures have significantly reduced the activity of companies, with the global economic growth forecasts being significantly revised towards a global recession of about 3%. The economy of the Republic of Moldova is no exception as several sectors are already registering a drastic decrease in the sales and revenues because of the impossibility to carry out the usual activity. In addition, the public finances are being put to a severe test - on the one hand they are affected by the reduction in the tax revenues, on the other hand, there is an increase in spending to support the healthcare sector. Also, the Government cannot leave the real economy without support, the expenses for supporting the enterprises and the population will increase considerably.

COVID-19 Crisis: Moldova's Investment Priorities for Relaunching the Economy

Criza COVID-19: Prioritățile investiționale ale Moldovei pentru relansarea economiei

Author(s): Sergiu Gaibu / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: COVID-19 Crisis; Moldova; economy; relaunching;

Majoritatea organismelor internaționale și cercetătorilor în domeniu au o certitudine comună că această criză va depăși criza precedentă din 2008 și ar putea fi una din cele mai mari în ultimii 50 de ani. FMI a prognozat pentru Moldova o scădere de 3% a PIB pentru 2020. Dar acest scenariu este optimistic. BERD prognozează o scădere de 4%, GET – 6.3%, iar președintele Dodon a anunțat o scădere de 6-7%. Pentru luna martie BNS a raportat o scădere a producției industriale cu 10.5% față de martie anul 2019 și 8% față de luna februarie. Transportul de mărfuri a scăzut cu 15% în martie comparativ cu aceeași perioadă a anului 2019. În aceste condiții nu este exclusă atingerea unei cote de scădere a PIB între -5% și -10% pentru 2020.

How to make the future Covid-19 vaccine more acceptable and accessible?

Cum să facem viitorul vaccin contra Covid-19 mai acceptabil și mai accesibil?

Author(s): Rustam Romaniuc / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: Covid-19 vaccine; health; medicine;

În timp ce anunțurile de ultimă oră ale laboratoarelor farmaceutice au redat un pic de speranță, reacțiile de neîncredere care au urmat în rândul populațiilor, aproape în toată lumea, au avut efectul unui duș cu apă rece. Acest fapt reamintește cât este de important ca lucrul asupra soluțiilor tehnice să fie susținut de politici menite să schimbe atitudinile și comportamentele cetățenilor.

What are we doing with the economy? Immediate economic priorities for the new Government

Ce facem cu economia? Priorități economice imediate pentru noul Guvern

Author(s): Adrian Lupușor / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: economy; economic priorities; new Government;

Each newly formed Government, in the Republic of Moldova and not only, faces from the very beginning the classic dilemma: the huge list of problems on the one hand, and limited resources and time on the other. The future Government will not be an exception, only that in addition to structural economic problems related to low competitiveness, the lack of decent jobs or an unfriendly business climate, the effects of the 2020 corona crisis and the risks of a new wave in the near future have also been added. In these circumstances, even if the economic policy solutions have been known for a long time, at the moment the main challenge is to identify the immediate priorities that will respond to the most urgent needs, especially of the vulnerable groups considering the disproportionate effect of the crisis, to accelerate the economic recovery and to create the conditions for the new model of economic growth based on investment and exports, which has already been talked about for more than a decade. Therefore, the purpose of this document is to identify the immediate economic priorities for the new Government, taking into account the most pressing needs, based on a systemic approach: identifying the basic constraints, the elimination of which will automatically allow the solution of other constraints.

Insolvency – the perfect recipe for embezzlement of public property managed by state-owned companies

Insolvabilitatea – rețeta perfectă pentru delapidarea proprietății publice gestionate de companiile de stat

Author(s): Vitalie Rapcea / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: state-owned companies; insolvency; liquidation;

Î.S. Moldaeroservice, Î.S. Tehnico-Experimentală Codru, S.A. Aroma, S.A. Vinuri Ialoveni etc sunt doar câteva dintre cele 56 de companii de stat aflate în proces de insolvabilitate sau lichidare. Ținând cont de faptul că în gestiunea companiilor de stat sunt transmise și bunuri din domeniul public, care sunt, teoretic, inalienabile, iar procedura de insolvabilitate prevede înlocuirea organelor de conducere a companiilor de stat cu lichidatorul/administratorul de insolvabilitate și adunarea creditorilor, crește exponențial riscul de delapidare a proprietății publice. Prezentul comentariu trece în revistă constrângerile principale ale procedurii de insolvabilitate a companiilor de stat care creează rețeta perfectă pentru delapidarea proprietății publice.

The link between road safety, road fund revenues, the integrity of national public roads and corruption risks in the administration of state assets

Legătura dintre siguranța rutieră, încasările la fondul rutier, integritatea drumurilor publice naționale și riscurile de corupție în administrarea patrimoniului statului

Author(s): Vitalie Rapcea / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: road safety; road fund revenues; national public roads; corruption risks; administration of state assets;

Cel puțin două din trei obiective situate în zona drumului public sunt amplasate ilegal sau cu grave abateri. Terenurile din zona drumurilor publice, proprietate a statului, sunt administrate de către companiile de stat. În loc să se lupte cu fenomenul transformării drumurilor naționale în piețe, administrația publică centrală de specialitate încearcă să legalizeze amplasarea nejustificată și absolut haotică a obiectivelor „comercial-economice” în zona drumului public. Acest comentariu încearcă să explice de ce propunerile de modificare a legii 509/1995 și a titlului IX din Codul fiscal nr 1163/1997 înaintate de către Ministerul Infrastructurii și Dezvoltării Regionale în cadrul politicii bugetar-fiscale pentru anul 2023 nu sunt o soluție, și nu o să crească încasările la buget și cu atât mai mult nu o să sporească calitatea drumurilor naționale, viteza medie de circulație pe acestea, afectând dramatic siguranța participanților la trafic.

Commentary on the fiscal and customs policy for 2023 from the perspective of corruption potential

Comentariu la politica fiscală și vamală pentru anul 2023 din perspectiva potențialului de corupție

Author(s): Marina Soloviova / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: Fiscal and Customs Policy; corruption; 2023;

Proiectul Politicii fiscale și vamale pentru anul 2023 prevede modificări la un șir de acte normative, printre care Codul fiscal, Codul vamal, Legea cu privire la antreprenoriat și întreprinderi, Legea privind finanțele publice locale etc. Conform notei informative, principalele obiective ale proiectului sunt: (i) identificarea instrumentelor care ar crea premise pentru creșterea economică a Republicii Moldova; (ii) revizuirea mecanismelor de calculare și achitare a impozitelor și taxelor în vederea simplificării și clarificării cadrului legislativ, precum și îmbunătății proceselor de raportare fiscală; (iii) continuarea armonizării legislației naționale la prevederile acquis-ul comunitar; (iv) îmbunătățirea administrării fiscale și vamale prin extinderea spectrului de instrumente disponibile pentru intervenție, în vederea diminuării economiei tenebre și reducerii interacțiunii dintre contribuabil și funcționarul fiscal. Modificările majore prevăzute de proiect includ: introducerea cotei zero la profitul reinvestit pentru întreprinderi micro, mici sau mijlocii; implementarea conceptului privind restituirea sumei TVA acumulate în cont; revenirea la impozitarea progresivă a veniturilor persoanelor fizice; alocarea integrală a încasărilor din taxa pentru folosirea drumurilor către bugetele locale și eliminarea plafonului maxim pentru cota impozitului pe imobile; introducerea reglementărilor privind prețurile de transfer ș.a.

Temporary "lifeline" or tax evasion and risk of committing acts of corruption? The epic of the entrepreneur's patent

„Colac de salvare” temporar sau evaziune fiscală și risc de a comite acte de corupţie? Epopeea patentei de întreprinzător

Author(s): Grigore Vieru / Language(s): Romanian

Keywords: tax evasion; corruption; businesses;

Patenta de întreprinzător a servit drept „colac de salvare” pentru dezvoltarea micilor afaceri, prin excepțiile de la cadrul legal, fiscal și antreprenorial obișnuit ce ține de legalizarea unei afaceri. În timp, avantajele oferite de patentă s-au dovedit a fi în detrimentul intereselor statului, generând riscuri și premise nefaste pentru dezvoltarea social-economică a țării. Mai mult, aceasta este atractivă pentru cei care admit acte de evaziune fiscală şi evită controalele din partea autorităților. Deși se discută de mult timp ca activitatea de întreprinzător în bază de patentă să treacă la alte forme organizatoricojuridice, aceasta încă se practică.

Analysis of Constraints

Analiza Constrângerilor

Author(s): Alex Oprunenco,Ana Popa / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

Keywords: Economic Growth; Growth Diagnostics;

This report is an update of the "Analysis of Constraints to Economic Growth" study carried out for the Republic of Moldova in 2007 at the initiative of the Millennium Challenge Corporation. The purpose of the report is to identify the critical constraints for the economic growth of the Republic of Moldova, using the methodology developed by Hausmann, Rodrik and Velasco in their work "Growth Diagnostics" ("Growth Diagnostics") published in 2005. The methodology proposed by these researchers is based on the hypothesis that the rate of economic growth (equal to the rate of capital accumulation) is a function of the difference between the expected rate of capital accumulation and the effective cost of this capital. Starting from this premise, the economic constraints are grouped into three large groups that determine the low level of private investments and entrepreneurial activities: (1) those that determine low social profitability (natural and human capital, infrastructure, and innovations and competitiveness); (2) those that determine the low rate of profitability appropriation (investment climate and macroeconomic risks); (3) those that determine the high cost of capital (access to financial resources).

The Relevance of the Anticipatory Composite Index (ICA) developed by the Expert Group for defining the fluctuations of the Moldovan economy

Relevanța Indicelui Compozit Anticipator (ICA) elaborat de Expert-Grup pentru definirea fluctuaţiilor economiei moldoveneşti

Author(s): Adrian Lupuşor / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

Keywords: economic fluctuation; Moldowa GDP;

In April 2012, Expert-Group launched the Anticipatory Composite Index (ICA) of the Moldovan economy - a useful analytical tool for analyzing economic fluctuations, but also for anticipating possible negative shocks. This document comes to complete the initial analysis by extending the period initially included in the calculation of the ICA index, testing the anticipatory properties of the index in relation to the Gross Domestic Product, as well as applying the spectral analysis in order to establish the relevance of the ICA for defining the fluctuations of the Moldovan economy. At the same time, the analysis highlights the latest economic trends revealed by the index and presents the main risks to which the economy of the Republic of Moldova is currently exposed in the context of the economic difficulties in the Euro zone and not only. This document appears with the financial support granted by the Think-Tank Fund, Open Society Institute in Budapest, Hungary

Deciphering the mechanisms of the Moldovan Sconomy: Modeling the quantitative aspects

Descifrarea mecanismelor economiei Moldovenești: Modelarea aspectelor cantitative

Author(s): Alexandru Fală / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

Keywords: econometry; economic variables;

This document is dedicated to the description of the econometric model developed within the EXPERT-GRUP. The model reflects the causal relations characteristic of the economy of the Republic of Moldova. The document analyzes the connections between economic variables and reveals the quantitative aspects of these correlations. In order to highlight the effects of changing the economic variables, the results of the simulations based on the model are presented.

X-ray of the 2013 economic year and expectations for 2014

Radiografia anului economic 2013 și așteptări pentru anul 2014

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

That document constitutes the sixth annual economic radiograph carried out by the Independent Analytical Center EXPERT-GRUP. So far, such x-rays have been made for the years 2008-2012, the purpose of which is to provide readers with an analytical overview of the major economic developments that marked the year and help them to better understand their implications. The current edition contains 3 charts: (i) top 5 economic successes; (ii) top 5 economic failures; and (iii) top 5 economic challenges for 2014.

The specifics of trade relations with the Russian Federation and what are the alternative markets for Moldova?

The specifics of trade relations with the Russian Federation and what are the alternative markets for Moldova?

Author(s): Iurie Morcotîlo,Adrian Lupușor / Language(s): English

Keywords: Kozak Plan; TransdnistriaM

The Russian Federation has traditionally been one of the main markets for Moldovan companies. Due to the geographic proximity, common history and the size of its internal market this destination has always held a crucial place in the exports from our country. However, with the Russian Federation external policy activation from the past decade and the change of external vector of Moldova, the political factor started to play the primary role in the bilateral trade relations. Thus, in 2006, as a reaction to the refusal of the Moldovan side to sign and implement the „Kozak Plan” for the resolution of the Transdniestrian conflict, Russia has imposed an embargo on wine exports.

Regional development and two parallel realities. Analysis of the geographic distribution of economic growth in the Republic of Moldova

Dezvoltarea regională și două realități paralele. Analiza distribuției geografice a creșterii economice în Republica Moldova

Author(s): Iurie Morcotîlo / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

The current study aims to analyze, based on the available statistical data, the latest trends and developments in the regional development of the Republic of Moldova and to identify the dynamics of regional development disparities. Since regional statistics are not sufficiently developed, the analysis of regional dynamics in the study focused on the identification of processes of convergence or divergence at the branch level - industry, agriculture and investments. In addition, the Gross Regional Product for each district is estimated, without calculating its evolution over time, for the same reasons of lack of statistical information. Thus, the result of the study is the primary analysis of the regional development of the last decade and the establishment of a basis for subsequent analyses, conditional on the improvement and expansion of the official statistical component.

Diagnosis of the depreciation of the Moldovan Leu

Diagnosticul deprecierii leului moldovenesc

Author(s): Alexandru Fală / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

The Republic of Moldova "started with the left" in 2015. The upheaval of the foreign exchange market represents only a sequence with a greater intensity within a systemic trend of depreciation of the Moldovan leu (MDL). In turn, the weakening of the national currency that began in the last quarter of 2014 and continues to date indicates that the national economy has entered a phase of compression. At the same time, the weakening of the banking sector, caused by the explosion of dubious transactions in recent years, as well as the deterioration of the regional economic situation, which together with other determinants affect the exchange rate of the national currency, will influence the degradation of the socio-economic indicators of the Republic of Moldova during 2015.

The minimum wage: between economic efficiency and social equity

Salariul minim: între eficientă economică și echitate socială

Author(s): Iurie Morcotîlo / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

Keywords: minimal wage;

The given study comes to cover an informational and analytical void, to bring back to society's attention the importance and effectiveness of the minimum wage as a mechanism for reducing social inequity. Thus, the main purpose of the study is to analyze the reaction of the labor market to the administrative incursion and whether the most needy blankets, indeed, benefit from the establishment of minimum wage ceilings. At the same time, due to the insufficiency of statistical data regarding the distribution of salaries among different categories of workers, the respective study has rather a descriptive aspect and presents only the first step in the much more complex research of the consequences of the use of the minimum wage for the national economy.

Moldova and Russia: Between Trade Relations and Economic Dependence

Moldova and Russia: Between Trade Relations and Economic Dependence

Author(s): Ana Popa / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

Signing of the Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union (EU) and establishment of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with EU in 2014 generated significant dissatisfactions from the Russian Federation’s part. Sanctions were applied almost immediately by setting import duties and banning the import of some products originating from Moldova. Thus, the trade relations between Moldova and Russia are still expected to be unclear, especially with regards to the Moldovan exports. The study analyses the exposure of Moldovan economy and economic sectors to the exports to Russian Federation and its evolution in the last decade, when the first important sanctions were imposed against Moldovan products.

Evaluation of the Moldovan banking sector for the year 2015

Evaluarea sectorului Bancar Moldovenesc pentru anul 2015

Author(s): Alexandru Fală / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

Keywords: Banks in Moldowa;

This paper represents a brief analysis of trends in the banking sector in the context of the decapitalization of 3 important banks and the crisis of credibility generated for the entire system. From the wide range of indicators that reflect the state of the banking sector, a narrower set of parameters were selected, the examination of which allows for a diagnosis with a high degree of accuracy. The analysis of the situation in the sector was carried out by researching the following components: the evolution of the exchange rate, the attraction of storage resources, the lending activity and the quality of the loan portfolio, aspects related to the liquidity of financial institutions and the level of capitalization of the banking sector. The analysis of these indicators allows a more accurate understanding of the magnitude of the crisis in the banking sector, as well as its resilience to other similar shocks. The conclusions of this short diagnosis must serve as an analytical basis for the extensive plan to rehabilitate the banking sector.

Rating of transparency and quality of bank shareholdings

Ratingul transparenței și calității acționariatelor bancare

Author(s): Adrian Lupușor,Dumitru Pîntea / Language(s): Romanian,Moldavian

Keywords: Moldawian Banks;

The rating does not reflect the level of solvency of the banking institutions, nor the profitability and profitability indicators. Thus, banks with a poor score do not necessarily present any risks for financial stability. At the same time, the rating does not aim to give any assessments regarding the level of transparency and quality of commercial bank shareholders, but only provides a comparative analysis in this regard.