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Verification of facts as an integral part of professional journalism in hybrid wars

Author(s): Bogdan Synchak / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2021

The article characterizes the phenomenon of fact-checking as an integral component of professional journalistic activity. Particular attention is paid to the elements of the fact-checking process applicable in various production situations. Within the framework of the research of ensuring the functioning of mass-media counteraction to hybrid wars, which are unfolding in Ukraine, the characteristics of the actively acting Russian-Ukrainian information war are given. In this context, the verification of facts is positioned as an integral component of professional journalism, in the framework of which the activity of domestic fact-finding projects plays an unremarkable role. The stated problems are linked to the current mass-media realities of the deployment of hybrid wars. In particular, statistical data on the quantitative characteristics and proportions of disinformation disseminated in Ukraine is presented.

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CHINA AND THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR: INTERESTS, POSITION, CONSEQUENCES

Author(s): Stanislav But / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2022

The article analyzes the peculiarities of Beijing’s positioning in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The author examines Beijing’s official rhetoric and actions regarding the war in the context of a number of key geopolitical and PRC goals – strengthening global influence by removing the US from leadership positions, taking control of Taiwan, turning Russia into a dependent country. Particular attention is paid to the internal determinants of Beijing’s position, such as national-historical sentiments, problems of socioeconomic development and the issues of further development of the political system. Currently, China’s geostrategy is dominated by the negative consequences of the war, for example, the growth of the unity of the West and the role of the United States, the strengthening of anti-Chinese sentiments in the Asia-Pacific region, the aggravation of the Taiwan issue against the background of PRC’s internal troubles.

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THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY WEAPONS: FROM THE MIDDLE-EAST CRISES TO THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

Author(s): Vadym Danylets / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2022

There are many examples in history when an energy weapon – sharp reduction or cessation of energy supplies – was used by exporting countries as a means of pressure on other states. The Arab oil embargo of 1973 left the greatest effect from such an application and, accordingly, a trace in history. However, today’s events of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine allow us to say that energy weapons have evolved and are ready to «shoot» with even greater power. This article demonstrates the evolution and transformation of energy weapons in the period from the events in the Middle East in the second half of the 20th century to the Russian war against Ukraine in 2022. It is illustrated how the source of economic danger for Western Europe changed – from the arab oil-exporting countries to Russia. Regularities and prerequisites are established under which exporting countries resort to energy blackmail. The author highlights the goals, as well as the methods of exporting states, in particular the USSR/Russia, in conducting energy wars.

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REPREZENTAREA SOCIALĂ A PROFESIEI DE MILITAR ȘI A ACȚIUNILOR MILITARE

Author(s): Aliona Melentieva / Language(s): Romanian Issue: 1-2/2022

The research of social representation allow as to shape the social reality of a variety of phenomena, values, objects, etc., and everything around us through the collective-individualistic view of society members. At present time, the topic of war has a primary actuality worldwide taking into consideration military actions that take place in Ukraine. The research was started before the military actions initiated by Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory, and continued after – February-April 2022. We would like to mention that the given situation marked as well the results of our research, taking into account the fact that our main topic is military field. In this order of ideas, we researched the social representation of military profession and social representation of military actions. The subjects involved in research are employers with active military status.

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PRESENCE AND ROLE OF MERCENARIES ON THE BATTLEFIELD, INCLUDING THE PARTICIPATION OF MOLDOVAN MERCENARIES IN THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Author(s): Igor Soroceanu / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2022

People are different in their way of being. Some differ according to their origin, race, spoken language, nationality, and other criteria, and others differ according to their ambitions, that is, according to their wishes and visions of the future. Some wishes or visions of the future can be obtained in a short way, but others are more difficult to obtain. Thus, in order to achieve their visions and goals, some people resort to military attacks, which turn into a battlefield. These struggles are carried out in serious violation of all the values of human society. A regrettable part of these fights is the participation of mercenaries in these illegal activities. Therefore, in the present scientific approach, we propose to analyze the participation role of mercenaries on the battlefield.

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FORMATION OF REGULATORY AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR REVITALIZATION OF DEGRADED TERRITORIES IN UKRAINE

Author(s): Serhii Horbliuk / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2022

The article assesses the incidence of regional policy on overcoming the crisis phenomena of territorial development in Ukraine. The evolution of regulatory and legal approaches to revitalization of degraded territories before Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine (2022) are examined for compliance with sustainable development concept. The methodology for identification of depressed territories and the development of state programs to overcome their depressed condition, legally regulated but as yet unimplemented, are discussed. It was found that due to the adoption of a number of laws and the State Strategy for Regional Development for the period of 2021-2027, there has been a move from declaring depressed territories to be policy targets, which de facto were deprived of state support. Attention is focused on the transition to a territorially-oriented state policy of regional development based on the identification of low-capacity areas, and application of special mechanisms and tools of state support. Among the measures of state regional policy in this field, the state support for potential centres of economic growth and integrated projects of developing territories with special developmental challenges is becoming increasingly important. Ways to improve the regulatory and legal framework for the revival of degraded territories in Ukraine are considered separately. The strategic priorities of the regional policy of territorial development are analysed for their compliance with the Sustainable Development Goals, which are the basic guidelines for the revitalization of territories. It has been established that measures to overcome the crisis phenomena of territorial development, contained in the existing regional strategies, are mostly piecemeal. At the regional level, the policy of revitalization of territories is characterized by the presence of single integrated projects, aimed mostly at the recovery of neglected infrastructure facilities. The experience of integrated planning of territorial development testifies to the attempts to balance spatial, economic, social and environmental goals when forming regional policies. In summation, the prospects for the development of the policy of revitalization of degraded territories with the existing legal regulation are substantiated; conditions, under which the appropriate regulatory and legal framework will contribute to overcoming the threats of territorial decline in Ukraine, are outlined.

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Alte concepte anistorice : antisemitismul

Author(s): Dan Culcer / Language(s): Romanian Issue: 10-11/2022

În contextul războiului dintre Statele Unite și Rusia, tipic conflict realizat prin interpuși, chestiunea xenofobiei și a identității naționale a fost relansată cu toată forța. Printre efectele colaterale ale războiului putem enumera relansarea procesului de omogenizare a unei națiuni, cea a ucrainienilor, care nu și-a terminat construcția, mereu întreruptă de conflicte zonale.

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L’inutilité juridique de l’Ordonnance de la Cour Internationale de Justice du 16.03.2022 Ukraine c. Fédération de Russie (Convention sur le génocide)

Author(s): Corneliu Liviu Popescu / Language(s): French Issue: 3/2022

The scope of the International Court of Justice’s order requesting Russia, as a provisional measure, to suspend military operations, is linked to the subject matter of the case, namely alleged genocide committed by Ukraine, which Russia claims to stop and prevent. Since Russia also uses, as its main argument, the exercise of the right to self-defence, a matter which is not part of the subject-matter of the case and over which the Court has no jurisdiction, Russia can continue the military operations, justifying them legally solely on the basis of the right to self-defence, and not also on the basis of the prevention and cessation of genocide, without thereby violating its obligation to comply with the Court’s Order. Certainly, the prohibition of aggression, of the use of force in international relations will continue to be violated, as stated by the General Assembly of the United Nations Organization.

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Migration of Ukrainian citizens to Poland caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022

Author(s): Krzysztof Kopeć / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2022

As a result of the war – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022 – a huge number of refugees began to flee to the countries bordering with Ukraine in the west – including mainly to Poland. This regarded women, children and the elderly, because due to the ordered mobilization of men aged 18–60–years old, they could not, with some exceptions, leave Ukraine. This is a completely new situation – no such large European nation has been forced to migrate so violently since World War II. The aim of the article is to present and analyze the migration of Ukrainian citizens to Poland caused by the Russian invasion – the course of this migration and the places where refugees stayed on the territory of Poland. Since Russia’s activities had increased anxiety already before the invasion began, the analysis also covers the earlier period. Therefore, migration has been presented in detail since 1 January 2022, while 31 July 2022 has been adopted as the end date of the analyzed data.

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Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies

Author(s): Piotr Fiszeder,Marta Małecka / Language(s): English Issue: 4/2022

Research background: The Russian invasion on Ukraine of February 24, 2022 sharply raised the volatility in commodity and financial markets. This had the adverse effect on the accuracy of volatility forecasts. The scale of negative effects of war was, however, market-specific and some markets exhibited a strong tendency to return to usual levels in a short time.Purpose of the article: We study the volatility shocks caused by the war. Our focus is on the markets highly exposed to the effects of this conflict: the stock, currency, cryptocurrency, gold, wheat and crude oil markets. We evaluate the forecasting accuracy of volatility models during the first stage of the war and compare the scale of forecast deterioration among the examined markets. Our long-term purpose is to analyze the methods that have the potential to mitigate the effect of forecast deterioration under such circumstances. We concentrate on the methods designed to deal with outliers and periods of extreme volatility, but, so far, have not been investigated empirically under the conditions of war.Methods: We use the robust methods of estimation and a modified Range-GARCH model which is based on opening, low, high and closing prices. We compare them with the standard maximum likelihood method of the classic GARCH model. Moreover, we employ the MCS (Model Confidence Set) procedure to create the set of superior models.Findings & value added: Analyzing the market specificity, we identify both some common patterns and substantial differences among the markets, which is the first comparison of this type relating to the ongoing conflict. In particular, we discover the individual nature of the cryptocurrency markets, where the reaction to the outbreak of the war was very limited and the accuracy of forecasts remained at the similar level before and after the beginning of the war. Our long-term contribution are the findings about suitability of methods that have the potential to handle the extreme volatility but have not been examined empirically under the conditions of war. We reveal that the Range-GARCH model compares favorably with the standard volatility models, even when the latter are evaluated in a robust way. It gives valuable implication for the future research connected with military conflicts, showing that in such period gains from using more market information outweigh the benefits of using robust estimators.

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Wojna kulturowa między Rosją a Ukrainą

Author(s): Wiktor Możgin / Language(s): Polish Issue: 78/2022

The imperial plans of the Russian Federation towards Ukraine at the end of February 2022 passed to the next stage and took the form of a full-scale war, which covers not only the military, political, economic, but also cultural spheres. The author of this article, starting from this assumption, presents an analysis of the war between Russia and Ukraine from the cultural and anthropological perspective. He refers to the so-called the phenomenon of the “small-Russian nature” of the Ukrainian nation, which, starting from the times of the Russian Empire, influenced the perception of Ukrainians as being secondary to Russians. This situation didn’t change even after Ukraine regained its independence in 1991. Only the events on the Maidan in Kiev, the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Donbas caused a change in cultural vectors. Ukraine began to forge its own national cultural identity, completely breaking away from what was Russian. The full-scale war, unleashed at the end of February, significantly sharpened this rhetoric, additionally underpinned by the policy of cultural sanctions applied by the West. Therefore, the aim of this article is to present the Russian-Ukrainian cultural war, the consequence of which is the process of shaping an independent Ukrainian cultural awareness.

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Ukrainian society under war: An insider’s sociological notes

Author(s): Victor Stepanenko / Language(s): English Issue: 3/2022

When Marek Czyżewski suggested that I prepare a text on the sociological aspects of the Russo-Ukrainian war, I caught myself thinking about the need to comprehend the new social reality in which we have found ourselves since February 24, 2022. Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine has already changed the European security order, but it has also become a major challenge to global peace and security. For the first time since the end of World War II and the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the world is on the verge of a new global military confrontation with real risks of the state-aggressor using nuclear weapons.

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HOW THE SECRET INTELLIGENCE SERVICES WILL CHANGE AFTER THE RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR

Author(s): Ioana Hermina Păiuș / Language(s): English Issue: 17/2022

Intelligence has changed. Secret Services is no longer just about spying or passively watching a target. Espionage chiefs now command secret armies and legions of cyber warriors who can quietly shape international relations itself. Intelligence actively supports diplomacy, peacekeeping and warfare: the entire spectrum of security activities. As traditional interstate wars become more costly, covert action, black propaganda and other forms of secret interventionism become more important. This ranges from proxy warfare to covert action; from targeted killing to disruption activity. Meanwhile, surveillance permeates communications to the point where many feel there is little privacy. Intelligence, and the accelerating technology that surrounds it, have never been more important for the citizen and the state. We will examine: why states choose to use intelligence – including fabricated intelligence for influencing external audiences, the different methods they deploy for doing so, the gains and costs of publicising intelligence, and how open-source third-parties affect this and, therefore, how the use of intelligence during the Russia-Ukraine conflict should be understood within broader historical and contemporary trends. We conclude that while liberal democracies’ use of intelligence in public is to be welcomed, this will need careful risk management - from sources and methods to public trust and politicization- if it is to become a new normal of statecraft moving forward.

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Identification and Levelling of Crisis Phenomena in the World Grain Market in the 2022/23 Marketing Year

Author(s): Kateryna Kovtoniuk,Ellana Molchanova / Language(s): English Issue: 1/2022

The aim of this paper is the detection crisis phenomena in the world grain market in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), which worsened during the Russia-Ukraine invasion on February 24, 2022. Some countries and international organizations have recently expressed concern that the reduction of grain supply on the world market and the rapid rise in its price. Whether the impact of the destabilizing situation on the world grain market on the exacerbation of hunger is an open question. In order to fill the research gap, the paper tries analysis the global market into grain types between 2008/09 MY to 2021/22 MY and identify on it the shares of Ukraine and Russia. Two methods are used to conduct a comprehensive study of the grain market - fundamental and technical analysis. The analysis of the state and dynamics of the main indicators of the world grain market was carried out with the help of fundamental analysis. The results show that the volume of grain production in the world and the two warring countries are growing. Both countries supply about a quarter of all products in the overall structure of world grain exports. Finally, the result also shows that Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of barley, rye, wheat, and corn to low-income and least developed countries. Grain price forecasting through technical analysis was carried out. Based on the results obtained during the fundamental and technical analysis, three scenarios for the development of the grain market and its impact on the problem of hunger were proposed and given recommendations for levelling of crisis phenomena.

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The Religious situation in Ukraine and it’s influence on the establishment and development of military-religious relations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (1991–2017)

Author(s): Galyna Starodubets,Serhii Sokoliuk,Oleksii Voroshchuk / Language(s): English Issue: 2/2022

The article analyzes the religious situation in the Ukrainian society, as well as its impact on the formation and development of military-religious relations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 1991–2017.Religion, as one of the leading forms of social consciousness, is an important factor in the formation of civil society and in the development of channels of its communication with state institutions. The Church has traditionally played the role of an important subject of the socio-political life in the history of the Ukrainian people.The relationship between Russian-Ukrainian relations and their impact on state-religious relations in Ukraine and its Armed Forces has been studied. The main tendencies of the development of military-religious relations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been clarified. The transformation processes that influenced the change of the existing models of support of religious needs for the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the studied period, are analyzed here/in this article.In particular, some historical aspects of socio-political processes that influenced the formation and development of military-religious relations, and the institutionalization of the military clergy (chaplaincy) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the period under study are highlighted.In today’s conditions, military chaplains have gained significant experience of service in the war zone, have strong national and patriotic convictions, are able to withstand significant psychological and physical stress, and are ready to carry out pastoral service in any environment.

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NATO Summits back to the Eastern Flank: Prognosis for Summit in Vilnius

Author(s): Justinas Kulys / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2023

The NATO summit in Madrid will find its place in the history books. Unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine shocked security architecture in Europe, leading to tectonic changes in defense policies all around the continent and above. The Vilnius summit will be the fifth (out of twenty-six) NATO summit since 1990 that is taking place on the Eastern flank.

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Germany’s Security and Defense Policy since NATO’s Madrid Summit - A Shift in the Making?

Author(s): Aylin Matlé / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2023

Since the beginning of Russia’s renewed and full-fledged war of aggression against Ukraine beginning this February, and President Putin’s announcement in December 2021 that he intends to reverse the previous European security order, questions about deterrence – and, if necessary, defense – on NATO’s eastern flank have increasingly come to the fore of the Euro-Atlantic agenda. The Baltic States, which are particularly exposed from a geostrategic point of view, are the focus of special attention in this context since Estonia and Latvia border directly on Russia. While Lithuania, the third Baltic Republic, is not an immediate neighbor of Russia, it shares a border with Belarus – a country that is in the firm grip of the Kremlin. All three countries on their own would be outnumbered by Russian troops.

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The Russian Gas Bridge into a Climate-neutral Age has collapsed - Is there a Plan B for Germany?

Author(s): Kevin Oswald / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2023

Since the end of September, 2022, there has been final certainty: the acts of sabotage against the Nord Stream I and II pipelines turn the two pipes between Wyborg in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast and the German seaport Lubmin into a billion-dollar investment ruin. Whereas before, the demand to open the Nord Stream II pipeline or to push Kiev into negotiations with Moscow in order to reestablish gas flows to Europe had been voiced only by the political fringes and an inconvincible minority that seems indifferent to the fate of Ukraine, it is now very clear that Germany as the rest of Europe will have to manage largely without energy supplies from Russia for this winter, next winter and probably many winters to come. Although it is not conclusively proven that the Kremlin is behind the attacks, the blowing up of the pipelines stands symbolically for a severing of the last remaining links with the West. The almost simultaneous annexation of 15 percent of Ukraine’s territory also makes it clear that Moscow is continuing to escalate, and seems to be settling for an indefinite period of time with a pariah role in the international community of states.

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The Three Seas Initiative: New Breathing for North-South Connectivity in the Context of Current Geopolitical Shifts in Europe

Author(s): Gediminas Varvuolis / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2023

Lithuania has been part of the Three Seas Initiative since its inception back in 2016. The widely known core objective of this regional framework, which is approaching its 10th anniversary, has been to improve infrastructure among its member states and to close the economic gap between Western and Eastern Europe. After all, the 3SI countries, Lithuania included, were perfectly aware of the huge infrastructure needs in this part of Europe, with the International Monetary Fund estimating € 1.15 trillion in total infrastructure costs for the Three Seas region.

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The Present and Future of Lithuanian-Latvian Cooperation

Author(s): Neris Germanas,Gints Jegermanis / Language(s): English Issue: 41/2023

The report “Strategic Commitment and Choices for Latvia and Lithuania in the Age of Disruption and Great Power Rivalry” was published in August 2022. It aims to discuss the key areas of cooperation between Latvia and Lithuania. The authors of the report are Neris Germanas and Gints Jegermanis. The summary was made by Jurgis Vedrickas, Project Manager at the Eastern Europe Studies Center.

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