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The UK’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Przemysław Biskup,Aleksandra KOZIOŁ / Language(s): English

On 1 March, Prime Ministers Mateusz Morawiecki and Boris Johnson met in Warsaw. The leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion and announced the continuation of aid efforts. So far, the United Kingdom has introduced extensive sanctions and strengthened its military presence on NATO’s Eastern Flank. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of its actions will depend on further coordination of efforts with Poland and other allies.

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Impact of Western Sanctions on the Russian Economy

Author(s): Damian Wnukowski / Language(s): English

Russia has already been hit hard by the sanctions imposed for its aggression against Ukraine. They affect especially the rouble exchange rate and the banking sector. In the longer term, the sanctions will limit Russia’s economic development, including by reducing foreign trade and investment. The effectiveness of the restrictions will largely depend on identifying and limiting the possibility of circumventing them.

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France’s Reaction to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Amanda Dziubińska,Łukasz Maślanka / Language(s): English

President Emmanuel Macron strongly condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the military operation immediately. Macron expressed solidarity with Ukraine and announced cooperation with partners and international allies to end the war. From the beginning of the invasion, France has consistently supported the expansion of the scope of sanctions imposed on Russia. If Macron is re-elected in April, he will strive even more to build a European superpower, although with the need to coordinate actions between the EU and NATO.

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Czechia’s Reaction to Russia’s Latest Military Aggression Against Ukraine

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik / Language(s): English

Czechia, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has acted quickly and multidimensionally. The Petr Fiala government sworn in this year was one of the first in the EU and NATO to provide military support to Ukraine and to close its airspace to Russian planes. The country’s sanctioning of Russia is favoured by, among others, broad political compromise on the issue - including the previously pro-Russia president, Miloš Zeman - the public perception of the war, as well as earlier changes in Czech eastern policy.

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The Importance of Western Arms Supplies for Ukraine

Author(s): Filip Bryjka / Language(s): English

On 27 February, the EU made the unprecedented decision to finance arms supplies to the Ukrainian armed forces. Until now, military aid (arms, ammunition, military equipment, and supplies) had only been provided to Ukraine by some EU countries (including Poland), as well as the U.S., UK, and Canada. Recently, most EU states have joined the effort, including Germany, which had restricted such aid. Western military aid, alongside sanctions, is key to influencing the course of the conflict. Russia will seek to limit it by, among other things, disinformation and hybrid actions.

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India’s Ambivalent Stance on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

India has adopted a neutral stance on Russia’s latest aggression on Ukraine, trying not to alienate any of its main partners, Russia or the U.S. This was well-received in Russia but undermines the foundations of India’s rapprochement with the U.S. and the EU. The top priority for the government of Narendra Modi has been the evacuation of about 20,000 Indian citizens, mostly students, from the war in Ukraine.

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Romania’s Reaction to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author(s): Jakub Pieńkowski / Language(s): English

Romania unequivocally condemned the Russian invasion and is providing assistance to Ukrainian war refugees. It supported the imposition of sanctions on Russia by the European Union and has sent humanitarian aid and military equipment to Ukraine. Poland and Romania face similar challenges related to refugees from the war and share a perception of the threat of Russian aggression. Polish-Romanian intergovernmental consultations in Warsaw on 3 March provided an opportunity for better coordination of activities and positions.

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The Russian Attack on Ukraine and Risks to Nuclear Infrastructure (As of 10:45 on 4 March 2022)

Author(s): Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski / Language(s): English

Russia’s full-scale invasion has increased the risks for civilian nuclear infrastructure in Ukraine. Russian troops so far have captured the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant complex and Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Enerhodar. The intense use of artillery, rockets, and bombs may become a direct threat to various nuclear sector centres in Ukraine. However, the probability for contamination is low. Nevertheless, in case of such a scenario, its impact on Ukraine and its neighbours would be serious, and in an extreme case, catastrophic.

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The Crimea Platform Summit

Author(s): Maciej Zaniewicz / Language(s): English

The summit of the Crimea Platform, which aims for a peaceful end to the Russian occupation of Crimea, was held in Kyiv on 23 August. It will not directly lead to the restoration of Ukrainian control over the peninsula, nor to the imposition of new sanctions on Russia. However, Ukraine has managed to confirm the support of 46 states and international organisations for its policy of non-recognition of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.

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Slovaks' Perception of the War in Ukraine is Changing - a Socio-Political Perspective

Author(s): Łukasz Ogrodnik,Tomasz Żornaczuk / Language(s): English

Slovak support for Ukraine in the war with Russia results from the attitude of the authorities, and not from cross-party or social consensus. The continuation of this policy after the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 September is uncertain, given the position of the opposition party, Direction–Slovak Social Democracy (Smer-SSD), which is leading in almost all this year’s polls. Specifically, the party announced the suspension of military and political support for Ukraine. This is in line with the pro-Russian sympathies of a large part of society. The possible co-creation of a government by this party would be a challenge for Poland and would further weaken the Central European voice on security and eastern issues.

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Konsekwencje buntu Prigożyna dla systemu putinowskiego w Rosji

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): Polish

Z 23 na 24 czerwca br. doszło w Rosji do buntu wojskowego Grupy Wagnera (GW), prywatnej firmy wojskowej kierowanej przez Jewgienija Prigożyna. Był to najpoważniejszy od początku sprawowania władzy przez Putina kryzyssystemu politycznego w Rosji,skutkujący osłabieniem pozycji prezydenta. Coraz trudniej będzie mu pełnić rolę arbitra między konkurującymi o wpływy frakcjami i pozostawać gwarantem bezpieczeństwa dla elity władzy.

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Najważniejsze decyzje szczytu NATO w Wilnie

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz,Marcin Terlikowski / Language(s): Polish

Na szczycie NATO w Wilnie 11–12 lipca br. sojusznicy zatwierdzili nowe plany obronne, które powinny być wsparte znacznym zwiększeniem liczebności wojsk i inwestycjami w sprzęt i uzbrojenie. Sojusz przyjął też nowy pakiet wsparcia dla Ukrainy. Nie zdecydowałsię jednak na niezwłoczne wystosowanie zaproszenia dla Ukrainy do NATO.

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Siergiej Ławrow z wizytą w Ameryce Łacińskiej

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): Polish

Rosyjski minister spraw zagranicznych przebywał w dniach 17–21 kwietnia br. kolejno w Brazylii, Wenezueli, Nikaragui i na Kubie. W trakcie wizyt przekonywał,że cele i interesy Rosji oraz większości państw latynoamerykańskich są zbieżne. Powielał też fałszywe tezy, m.in. o powodach inwazji na Ukrainę, kreując wizerunek Rosji jako ofiary polityki Zachodu. Podczas gdy pobyt w Brazylii służył legitymizowaniu rosyjskiego przekazu, w pozostałych państwach chodziło głównie o konsolidację więzi z autorytarnymi reżimami, w tym o współpracę w omijaniu sankcji.

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Rosja przygotowuje rozmieszczenie broni jądrowej na Białorusi

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner,Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): Polish

Wypowiedź Władimira Putina o przygotowaniach infrastruktury do rozmieszczenia na Białorusi rosyjskich głowic jądrowych jest kolejną próbą zastraszenia Zachodu. Ich rozlokowanie nie zmieni fundamentalnie sytuacji wojskowej w regionie. Zapowiedź jest natomiast kolejnym świadectwem agresywnego wykorzystywania broni jądrowej przez Rosję i jej kontroli nad Białorusią. Przypomina o potrzebie dalszego wzmacniania zdolności NATO do odstraszania i obrony.

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Orędzie Alaksandra Łukaszenki

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

31 marca br. Alaksandar Łukaszenka wygłosiłzwyczajowe orędzie, w którym skoncentrowałsię na zagrożeniach dla niepodległości Białorusi i uzasadniał decyzję o rozmieszczeniu rosyjskiej broni jądrowej na białoruskim terytorium. Łukaszenka powtarzał propagandowe tezy Rosji na temat wojny na Ukrainie oraz wskazywał na rzekome zagrożenie ze strony Polski i NATO. W odpowiedzi na postępującą militaryzację Białorusi NATO powinno wzmocnić swoje zdolności do odstraszania i obrony.

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Niezapowiedziana wizyta Joe Bidena w Kijowie

Author(s): Maria Piechowska / Language(s): Polish

Prezydent Joe Biden udał się w niezapowiedzianą podróż na Ukrainę. Wizyta, która miała miejsce 20 lutego, kilka dni przed pierwszą rocznicą rosyjskiej inwazji, ma duże znaczenie symboliczne dla Ukrainy. Jest także potwierdzeniem, że USA pełnią rolę kluczowego ukraińskiego partnera. W Kijowie prezydent USA zapowiedział m.in. przekazanie Ukrainie nowego pakietu wsparcia militarnego. Wizyta była częścią podróży Bidena do Europy Środkowej, której ważnym elementem będzie wystąpienie i spotkania w Warszawie.

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Wizyta Alaksandra Łukaszenki w Chinach

Author(s): Anna Maria Dyner / Language(s): Polish

W dniach 1-2 marca 2023 r. Alaksandr Łukaszenka przebywał z oficjalną wizytą w Chinach. W jej trakcie podpisano szereg dwustronnych deklaracji politycznych i gospodarczych. Mimo braku oficjalnych komunikatów na ten temat jednymiz ważniejszych wątków rozmów były też kwestie bezpieczeństwa. Bliższa współpraca Białorusi i Chin będzie korzystna dla Rosji z perspektywy jej agresji na Ukrainę.

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The present development in the nuclear arms control

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

The reflection highlights the need to increase the international nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and arms control efforts, particularly in the wake of the security crisis development triggered by the war in Ukraine and Russian threats to use nuclear weapons. In this context, it examines the courses and results of two important conferences dealing with nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the peaceful use of nuclear energy, that were organized this year. These conferences were the first Meeting of the States-Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Vienna in June and the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which took place in August at the UN Headquarters in New York. The conclusions contain some expected courses of action to reduce the risk of a nuclear war and a nuclear arms race.

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Who lost the battle, and who will win the great war?

Author(s): Dejan Azeski / Language(s): English

We are steadily approaching the beginning of the third year of the war in Ukraine, referred to by the Russian side as a Special Military Operation. Up to this point, we have witnessed a duel between the best weapons and tactics of both Russia and the NATO alliance, unfortunately resulting in hundreds of thousands of fatal casualties on both sides. We have seen numerous sacrifices and the uncompromising struggle of both armies, yet what remains elusive is the current outcome of the battles and any indication of who might emerge as the clear victor in this clash of civilizations, and whether there will ever be one. As things stand currently, the Russian military holds a more advantageous position. Not only have they withstood a six-month offensive by the finest NATO arsenal with almost no loss of captured territory, but they now seem poised to launch their own offensive. However, this does not necessarily signify a definitive outcome, as the scale and stakes in this war are so immense that a single battle cannot alter the course of such a vast conceptual showdown between two opposing sides of our planet.

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Putin’s War, ramifications for China

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Thirteen months into the war in Ukraine and it is effectively stalemate, although there remains bitter confrontation around the town of Bakhmut as well as an almost daily arrival of missiles or armed drones, although most of these are shot down before they cause harm. Four people were killed in the last foray in the Kyiv surrounds. Putin cannot win the war in this way, which he knows. He has just had a visit from President Xi Jinping of China to show that he still enjoys Xi’s support, except in the form of direct military assistance, which he needs. China is ostensibly trying to broker a peace deal. They are embarrassed by this war; it is affecting China’s trade, not just with Ukraine, but other countries as well, particularly if these nations have sympathy for Ukraine. However, a peace deal usually would require a measure of compromise on behalf of the warring parties. And Ukraine has, with some justification, says that Russia has to withdraw entirely from any Ukrainian lands they have taken. Russia would therefore have no land-take as a result for all the trouble and damage, never mind acts of genocide that some of their troops have perpetrated.

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