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Hrvatski na uvjetnoj slobodi

Author(s): Ivo Žanić / Language(s): Croatian

Nakon višegodišnje duboke političke krize u Hrvatskoj su se 1906. Održali slobodni izbori na kojima je pobijedila Hrvatsko-srpska koalicija Frana Supila, te u svibnju izabrala 40 izaslanika za zasjedanje zajedničkoga, Hrvatsko-ugarskog sabora u Budimpešti. Ali, nade se u sporazum s također novom ugarskom vlašću ipak ne ostvaruju, rasprave u Budimpešti sve su mučnije, te 3. srpnja 1907. završavaju demonstrativnim odlaskom hrvatskih zastupnika. Na početku te zadnje sjednice, dok je govorio izaslanik Hrvatskog sabora, neki su zastupnici Mađari nešto došapnuli predsjedniku ugarske vlade i ministru financija Sandoru Wekerleu, a on smjesta to prenio predsjedatelju Istvanu Rakovszkom.

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Media “Foreign Agents:” Implications for U.S.-Russia Relations and International Cooperation

Author(s): Andrzej Dąbrowski,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

U.S. authorities ordered Russia’s RT and Sputnik news agencies to register as foreign agents. In response, the Russian parliament amended its law on media that receive foreign funding, giving them similar status. With the drop in confidence in Russia by both parties in Washington, the U.S. administration is using existing regulations to avert accusations that Donald Trump favours Russia. That in turn has prompted Russia to further increase government control over media coverage in the country.

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Wyzwania kampanii wyborczej Władimira Putina

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): Polish

6 grudnia Władimir Putin ogłosił, że wystartuje w wyborach prezydenckich zaplanowanych na marzec 2018 r. Zgodnie z konstytucją FR powinna to być ostatnia kadencja sprawowana przez urzędującego prezydenta. Aby przygotować swojego następcę, musi on zwiększyć kontrolę nad elitami politycznymi oraz polepszyć komunikację ze społeczeństwem. Do tego potrzebuje wysokiej frekwencji w wyborach i umiejętnego rozgrywania grup interesów rywalizujących o dostęp do władzy.

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THE USE OF GEO-TARGETING DURING ELECTIONS

Author(s): Nora Biteniece,Kristina Van Sant / Language(s): English

Internet users around the globe demand different information and experiences that correspond to their geography. The most immediate difference is language: people want news, entertainment and services in their own language. Other things that vary by geography are culture, currency, climate and consumer norms. Geo-targeting is a common tool for targeting information to a specific geographical area and is widely used in digital marketing, in combination with information gleaned from available user data about consumer preferences, to deliver location-specific content. Itis a cost-effective way to match information with consumers.

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DISINFORMATION AS A GLOBAL PROBLEM – REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES

Author(s): Rachael Lim / Language(s): English

This research project discusses disinformation in the European Union (EU) and Southeast Asia (SEA). The report examines the characterisation and context of disinformation, provides an overview of its creators and its circulation, where creation refers to production and its underlying motivations and circulation refers to the different ways it is disseminated, amplified and sustained, and rounds up with a discussion on foreseeable trends. It finds that disinformation is ultimately a national security problem, and any assessment of, and response to, disinformation must be formulated with developments in other domains.

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TOWARDS RULE OF LAW IN THE DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT

Author(s): Filippo Raso,Vineta Mēkone / Language(s): English

This report summarizes an invite-only workshop held in Riga, Latvia on 12 December 2018 that focused on exploring which legal and ethical principles can promote the safety and reliability of the digital environment and reduce its risks to democracy worldwide.

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Sprawa telewizji Rustawi 2: eskalacja konfliktu między rządem a opozycją w Gruzji

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): Polish

Seria wyroków sądowych dotyczących własności prywatnej telewizji Rustawi-2 prowadzi do zaostrzenia konfliktu między gruzińskim rządem a opozycją. Dla Zjednoczonego Ruchu Narodowego (ZRN) może to oznaczać ograniczenie swobody prezentacji poglądów w mediach przed wyborami parlamentarnymi zaplanowanymi na drugą połowę 2016 r. Rządzące Gruzińskie Marzenie, wpływając na sądy i media, popełnia te same błędy, które doprowadziły do utraty władzy ich poprzedników. Nie ingerując w spór między rządem i opozycją, UE powinna wywierać nacisk na rząd w Tbilisi, aby przyspieszył reformę wymiaru sprawiedliwości.

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Russia’s Activities in Africa’s Information Environment. Case Studies: Mali and Central African Republic

Author(s): Karel Svoboda,Paula-Charlotte Matlach,Zack Baddorf / Language(s): English

This paper focuses on Russia’s strategies in Africa. The first ever Russia-Africa summit, co-hosted in October 2019 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi in Sochi, was presented by both Russian and international media as a milestone in Russia’s return to the African continent. Leaders and delegations of the vast majority of African states met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and other Russian representatives to discuss possible projects of cooperation between their respective countries. The summit ranked among the largest of recent Africa-partner summits (EU-Africa, China-Africa, US-Africa, and Japan-Africa). For example, Russia was able to welcome more state delegations than the US at their summit. The declared initiatives of cooperation appeared impressive, ranging from nuclear energy, oil and gas, to automobile production and financial loans for various fields. This meeting sparked numerous claims by both Western and Russian media that Russia is a key player in the region. There are plans for organizing another summit in 2022.

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Biden’s policy towards China: the prospects for transatlantic dialogue

Author(s): Jakub Jakóbowski / Language(s): English

Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election means that Washington will continue its confrontational policy towards Beijing. At the same time, it will clearly change its tactics and attempt to mobilise the US’s network of alliances to contain China. On 13 November, China congratulated Biden and Kamala Harris, but highlighted the need to resolve possible legal disputes. The expected change in the US administration has been widely commented upon in the Chinese press. The initial reactions from China reveal expectations that competition with Washington will continue in almost all key areas, although Beijing hopes to unblock some channels for diplomatic contacts. It also expects an extensive US-EU dialogue to begin discussing what actions should be taken with regard to the PRC. The first reactions from Europe suggest that this scenario is very likely. Biden’s victory has been presented as an opportunity for a joint response to the challenges linked to China by Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, and some representatives of Brussels. However, creating a common front on Beijing will require a number of structural problems in transatlantic relations to be resolved, including in the areas of trade and services, digital technologies and security.

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Towards greater resilience: NATO and the EU on hybrid threats

Author(s): Piotr Szymański / Language(s): English

In recent years, NATO and the EU have taken greater responsibility for countering hybrid threats. This group of threats covers a wide range of hostile methods used by states and non-state actors. It includes both military and non-military activities, for instance special forces operations and irregular warfare, and also disinformation and cyberattacks. NATO and the EU are involved in facilitating international cooperation on countering hybrid threats and protecting their own structures and institutions against them. In this way, both organisations reinforce the efforts at the national level, since fighting hybrid threats is primarily a task of the member states. Nevertheless, NATO’s and the EU’s actions in this respect are constrained by insufficient financing, and by the member states’ unwillingness to enhance the sharing of intelligence and sensitive information related to, for example, critical infrastructure protection or cybersecurity. The recent spike in anti-Western COVID-19 disinformation campaigns clearly shows that both NATO and the EU could do more to counter hybrid threats.

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Uganda Demonstrates the Growing Influence of Social Media on Politics in Africa

Author(s): Jędrzej Czerep / Language(s): English

In Africa, the frequency of politically fuelled internet blockages is increasing. This strengthens authoritarian tendencies and threatens business, for example, in Uganda, where the authorities switched off online access before January’s election. This undermined the election’s credibility and caused financial losses. Just as much controversy was sparked by Facebook’s attempts to restrict content supporting the candidacy of the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni, by shutting down government accounts.

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Russian and Belarusian Disinformation and Propaganda in the Context of the Polish-Belarusian Border Crisis

Author(s): Filip Bryjka,Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): English

Russia and Belarus are consistent in their narrative regarding the recent border crisis. They accuse EU and NATO members, mainly Poland and Lithuania, of failing to respect international law and lacking humanity. This is aimed at discrediting Euro-Atlantic structures and weakening Polish and Lithuanian influence on NATO and EU eastern policy. The Belarusian-Russian propaganda particularly invokes charges of hypocrisy and “double standards” on the part of the EU, which challenges the management and resolution of the border crisis.

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Closely-watched Freedom of Speech: The Media in Hungary

Author(s): Veronika Jóźwiak / Language(s): English

On 24 July, the editors of Index.hu, the leading Hungarian news site, announced the end of its functioning. This significantly limits access to non-governmental information sources in Hungary. Index.hu could be directly influenced by the authorities through economic instruments. As a result of changes in the Hungarian media market after 2010, the mass media do not provide a large variety of content to a wide audience, and do not fulfil their function of overseeing the authorities, which lowers the democratic standards in this country.

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The Growing Problem of Disinformation in Latin America

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

In the last few years, Latin America has seen a surge in disinformation, used as a tool in an internal political rivalry and influencing the public debate. This process is creating favourable conditions for Russian, Chinese, and Iranian state media - all gradually increasing their reach in the region - which use manipulation of information, for example, to discredit democratic states, especially the U.S., but also EU members. The growing scale of disinformation threatens democracy in Latin America. The EU could consider expanding its StratCom analysis of disinformation campaigns to monitor foreign state media content in the region.

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№178: NATO and the Rise of China: How a “NATO-Pacific Forum” Could Augment Alliance Cohesion

Author(s): Wojciech Lorenz / Language(s): English

With the great-power competition between China and the U.S. intensifying, political cohesion within NATO could be endangered. The risk of this may be further exacerbated by the wide effects of the coronavirus pandemic, which is likely to enforce cuts or shifts of priorities in U.S. defence spending, increasing pressure on the NATO allies to contribute more to transatlantic and even global security. China’s growing power and influence coupled with the declining U.S. ability to defend its interests and the rules-based order will probably dominate the American threat perception for the long term. If NATO is unable to ensure a politically visible response to China’s rise, it may become difficult for U.S. politicians to justify the growing investments in the Alliance’s deterrence of Russia, including the deployment of American troops to Europe. NATO could limit the risk of such a scenario by the establishment of a “NATO-Pacific Forum” based on existing partnerships with like-minded countries from the Indo-Pacific region.

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Biden in Poland Calls for Unity on Ukraine

Author(s): Mateusz Piotrowski / Language(s): English

On 20-22 February, after returning from Kyiv, U.S. President Joe Biden visited Poland. The visit was aimed at marking the role of Poland and the countries of the region in the assistance provided to Ukraine. The president also emphasised the unity of the alliance of democratic states over the past year of Russian aggression and their readiness to continue to support Ukraine’s military victory.

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Changes in Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric

Author(s): Artur Kacprzyk / Language(s): English

On 28 March, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary for Vladimir Putin, ruled out the use of nuclear weapons during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This apparent softening of rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons does not mean, however, that Russia will stop using nuclear threats. Russia’s aim is still to maintain ambiguity regarding the actual threshold for use of nuclear weapons. While the danger of nuclear escalation would be real in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict, both NATO and Russia want to avoid such a development. The Russian threats should therefore not stop the West from increasing arms deliveries to Ukraine and imposing further sanctions.

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North-South Korea Tensions Increase

Author(s): Oskar Pietrewicz / Language(s): English

North Korea’s cutting of all communication lines with South Korea and blowing up the liaison office in Kaesong on 16 June are part of the months-long deterioration of relations between the countries. The North’s actions may pressure the South, divert attention from internal problems and strengthen the position of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of the North Korean leader, in the North’s hierarchy.

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Orędzie Putina - rok wojny w oblężonej twierdzy

Author(s): Agnieszka Legucka / Language(s): Polish

21 lutego br. Władimir Putin wygłosił orędzie przed Zgromadzeniem Federalnym (połączonymi izbami rosyjskiego parlamentu). Powtórzył oskarżenia wobec NATO i USA, które rzekomo odpowiadają za wojnę na Ukrainie. Wystąpienie było skierowane głównie do wewnętrznych odbiorców. Miało ich nastawić na długotrwałe zmagania o zwycięstwo Rosji na Ukrainie, a zwykłych Rosjan zniechęcić do kontaktów z Zachodem.

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Anti-Americanism and Russian propaganda in Greece

Author(s): George X. Protopapas / Language(s): English

The foreign policy of Greek government towards Russia has sparked reactions among politically opposed parliamentary parties and from public opinion. The reactions vary: from the anti-American sentiments of the left-wing and far-right parties; maybe in an effort to get political gains. In this context, the Russian propaganda once more found a way to penetrate segments of Greek public opinion; geographically wise, its impact is stronger in Northern Greece.

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