Series:PISM Policy Papers

№063: What Does India Think About Poland?

№063: What Does India Think About Poland?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: India; Poland; Asia; bilateral relations; international cooperation; South Asia

Mutual ignorance is a major constraint on stronger bilateral cooperation between Poland and India. After two decades of economic and political transformation, the image of modern Poland has still not reached India, thus hampering business opportunities and closer political ties. As India is becoming a world power, Poland will have to invest more to enhance its visibility in India as a precondition to higher level bilateral relations.

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№062: The Western Balkans and the Alliance: All Is Not Well on NATO’s Southern Flank?

№062: The Western Balkans and the Alliance: All Is Not Well on NATO’s Southern Flank?

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Balkans; NATO; Eastern Europe; Europe; international security; Security; South Europe

NATO maintains its dedication to its “open door policy,” and the Western Balkans effectively constitute the only potential enlargement area for the Alliance in the near future. Three Western Balkan countries are official membership candidates but their NATO bids suffer from a string of problems which have already delayed and could potentially also derail their Alliance prospects. Currently, the main tasks of Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina are to construct a positive political discourse related to their Euro-Atlantic prospects and to persevere with their NATO ambitions. Such a feat, however, will not be achieved without completion of Alliance related “homework.”

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№061: How to speak about the Union? The influence of communication on the engagement of Poles in European issues

№061: Jak mówić o Unii? Wpływ komunikacji na zaangażowanie Polaków w sprawy europejskie

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Melchior Szczepanik / Language(s): Polish

Keywords: Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; European integration; European policy; European Union; Poland; society

Poles still assess positively the European Union, but do not have much knowledge about it and are not interested to fully exploit the mechanisms enabling them to impact EU decisions. In the second half of this decade the communication of Polish public institutions and main decision makers should be strengthened by highlighting the concrete results of EU integration and more importantly it should not only be limited to the structural funds use – it would make the public opinion prepare for Poland’s net payer position in the future. Polish ministries should start work also on a basis of multiannual communication strategies, broaden their activities in the Internet as well as organize more frequently the large public consultations.

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№060: Polish-Mexican Cooperation—Where Does Poland Stand?

№060: Polish-Mexican Cooperation—Where Does Poland Stand?

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska / Language(s): English

Keywords: Mexico; Poland; bilateral relations; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; international cooperation; North America

Poland and Mexico have unexplored potential for cooperation. Mexico, which has outperformed Brazil in economic growth for the last two years, has a highly open, emerging market with strong links to the rest of the world, including a free trade agreement with the EU. Furthermore, the reforms planned by the new administration, in particular in the energy sector, may result in Mexico’s oil and gas industry opening up to foreign participation. At the same time, Poland is improving its economic and political standing in the EU and is looking for closer cooperation with Latin America.

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№059: Democratic Opposition Alone Will Not Bring Democracy to Egypt

№059: Democratic Opposition Alone Will Not Bring Democracy to Egypt

Author(s): Amal Mukhtar,Patrycja Sasnal / Language(s): English

Keywords: democracy; democratization; Egypt; domestic policy; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa; North Africa

The creation of a new, united secular opposition group in Egypt (the National Salvation Front, or NSF) in November 2012 met with a sigh of relief in Europe and the U.S. It is viewed as the only democratic force in a country torn between Islamism and reactionism. The NSF itself, however, represents but a fraction of society, lacks homogeneity, and seems to be driven by basic political motivations rather than a sense of responsibility, just like the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and its affiliates. More than two years after the fall of Mubarak and a year after the first democratic presidential elections in Egypt, only national reconciliation can save the country, which has seen a series of unconstitutional developments, remains without a parliament, and is on the brink of bankruptcy. Without reconciliation, all political parties, including NSF, will continue to lose support.

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№058: Energy and Meat: Towards Better Polish–Saudi Relations

№058: Energy and Meat: Towards Better Polish–Saudi Relations

Author(s): Kinga Brudzińska,Patrycja Sasnal,Bartosz Wiśniewski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Poland; Saudi Arabia; bilateral relations; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; economy; Energy; Europe; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa

Poland and Saudi Arabia share a counterintuitive commonality of features and interests. Both are regional “middle powers,” and Poland’s energy poor but agriculturally strong economy makes it surprisingly compatible with the energy rich, agriculturally weak Saudi Arabia. Yet bilateral relations between these nations leave a lot to be desired. There are at least three domains in which relatively little effort could bring much progress in releasing the potential of these relations.

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№057: Towards New Political and Economic Agreements with Japan: Bringing New Dynamism into the Strategic Partnership between the EU and Japan

№057: Towards New Political and Economic Agreements with Japan: Bringing New Dynamism into the Strategic Partnership between the EU and Japan

Author(s): Radosław Tyszkiewicz / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Japan; Asia; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Europe; international cooperation

The forthcoming EU–Japan summit heralds a new era in the relations between these two major economic powers. Both players are focused on repairing their economies and putting growth back on track. To make this happen they are ready to negotiate legally binding agreements, which would help expand their cooperation. The negotiators will have to resolve a number of contentious issues, but the agreed outcome may result in considerable benefits for both the EU and Japan.

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№056: How the European Union Is Shaping the Gas Market in Poland

№056: How the European Union Is Shaping the Gas Market in Poland

Author(s): Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk / Language(s): English

Keywords: Energy; energy market; gas; Poland; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; energetics; Europe; European Union

Gas markets in the European Union are becoming more liberalised and integrated. But this model is rather typical only for North and Western Europe, while Poland significantly lags behind. Polish authorities only recently made some strategic decisions, but they constitute merely boundaries for a well functioning and liquid gas market in Poland integrated with the EU system. While the pace and scope of the necessary changes must be the subject of a reliable, expert debate, too much hesitation is already creating unnecessary uncertainty. Poland risks missing the opportunity to become an important player in Central and Eastern Europe.

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№035: Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan: Heading Towards a Regional Crisis?

№035: Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan: Heading Towards a Regional Crisis?

Author(s): Konrad Zasztowt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Azerbaijan; Iran; Turkey; Asia; Central Asia; Eurasia; Middle East; Middle East and North Africa

The Middle Eastern map of political alliances, affiliations and animosities is being constantly redrawn, but certain elements endure. The revolutionary turmoil in the region, now on full display in Syria, together with mounting tensions over issues such as Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, are the most pertinent issues that are bringing to the fore the deep, structural differences inherent in the Turkish-Iranian-Azerbaijani triangle. After what seemed as a period of growing Turkish-Iranian affinity in the past decade, the relations between Ankara and Tehran are on a downward trajectory. Turkey found it impossible to continue with the policy of „zero problems with neighbours” in the light of the events in Syria—it sided with the Sunni opposition, thus antagonizing not only the regime in Damascus, but also its most valued ally, Iran. In addition, Turkey seems to have re-calibrated its position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, using it to signal the lack of support for Tehrans anti-Western policies. In case of Azerbaijan, religious affinity with Iran seems to count less than the underlying geopolitical choices. On top of that, a secular Azerbaijan finds itself in a sharp ideological conflict with a teocratic Iran, and is deeply concerned with Iran’s anti-Israeli rhetorics and actions. Whether a regional crisis will unfold is largely dependent on the ability of all three countries to forestall the escalation of the existing problems into much graver feuds.

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№034: Any Chance for Inclusive Intergovernmentalism? The Prospects for a Franco-Polish Partnership in the European Union

№034: Any Chance for Inclusive Intergovernmentalism? The Prospects for a Franco-Polish Partnership in the European Union

Author(s): Elżbieta Kaca,Krzysztof Soloch / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; France; Poland; Europe; international cooperation

The uncertainty that is currently surrounding the EU’s political and economic future calls for new, innovative approaches to how European politics is handled. Perhaps crucially, the ongoing crisis has exposed divergences between the two most influential EU member states—France and Germany—thus creating a window of opportunity for cooperation in alignments that are either new, or which previously have not been tested in a meaningful way. The authors suggest than one of the possible avenues of cooperation would be an enhanced Franco-Polish partnership—a mutually beneficial arrangement that could provide much-needed leadership in select EU policy areas and contribute to strengthening the European project on the whole. While not necessarily a universal winning formula for the crisis-stricken EU, a closer, more focused Franco-Polish cooperation on the Common Foreign and Security Policy, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, or the future of European integration in general could serve as a testing ground for a more inclusive intergovernmental approach to EU policymaking.

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№033: Central European Approaches to the Protection of Civil Nuclear Programmes

№033: Central European Approaches to the Protection of Civil Nuclear Programmes

Author(s): Kacper Rękawek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Europe; nuclear power plant; Czech Republic; energy security; Europe; Hungary; nuclear energy; nuclear power; Poland; Security; society; terrorism; Visegrad Group

Security of civil nuclear programmes is not exactly front page news in Central Europe, nonetheless it deserves to be closely followed in the light of intentions to expand the use of nuclear power in the case of the Czech Republic and Hungary, or its introduction as part of the energy mix in Poland. The author diagnoses a considerable degree of assuredness about the level of nuclear security among Central Europeans, and assigns it to a relatively small size of their nuclear programmes, as well as their purely civil orientation. Security arrangements are considered to be adequate in the light of potential breaches of nuclear security either via instances of non-violent, anti-nuclear environmental activism, or the possibility of a deliberate terrorist strike.

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№032: The Implications of Hungary’s National Policy for Relations with Neighbouring States

№032: The Implications of Hungary’s National Policy for Relations with Neighbouring States

Author(s): Anita Sobják / Language(s): English

Keywords: Hungary; Central Europe; domestic policy; Europe; foreign policy

The paper highlights the importance of Hungary’s policy towards the Hungarian diaspora in the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe. The author points to both discontinuities and similarities in the approach of post-Cold War Hungarian governments and political elites to the issue of so-called national policy, as well as its interplay with other strategic directions of Hungary’s foreign policy in this period, most notably Euro-Atlantic integration and good-neighbourly relations. The analysis focuses on the national policy as implemented by the current Hungarian government of the FIDESZ political party. The policy itself is rooted in the Hungarian legislation, and is reflected in the structures of the Hungarian administration. As such, its implementation has not been without considerable negative repercussions for Hungary’s relations with its neighbours but, as the author points out, in some cases the relationship remained amicable, or at least cooperative.

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№031: The June 17 Elections in Greece: Domestic and European Implications

№031: The June 17 Elections in Greece: Domestic and European Implications

Author(s): Anna Visvizi / Language(s): English

Keywords: Greece; parliamentary elections; Balkans; domestic policy; elections; Europe; South Europe

The author analyses the background of the recent parliamentary elections in Greece, and lists the key challenges facing the new government under Antonis Samaras. Greek authorities will have to perform a tough balancing act while trying to come up with a strategy to address four major problems. First, Greek economy has to start generating growth again. Second, Greece and its international partners need to renegotiate the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding that set out the conditions for external support for Greek reforms. Third, the cabinet under Samaras will have to navigate the troubled waters of domestic politics, fending off criticism from populist parties. Finally, Greece’s image has been tarnished in the recent months, hence the new government must work hard to restore the country’s credibility in Europe and in the wider world. Crucially, external actors, especially fellow members of the EU, have both the assets and the interest in boosting Samaras’ credibility, both domestically and internationally.

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№030: Full Speed Ahead? Poland in Baltic Sea Region Cooperation

№030: Full Speed Ahead? Poland in Baltic Sea Region Cooperation

Author(s): Lidia Puka / Language(s): English

Keywords: Baltic Sea Region; Poland; Central Europe; Eastern Europe; Europe; international cooperation

The paper offers a useful overview of the factors affecting inter- and sub-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The author points to a notable absence of so-called hard security, low-consensual issues on the regional agenda, while at the same time diagnosing a long list of reasons behind limited efficacy of cooperation in tackling soft challenges. Diversity in terms of demographic and economic potential among the regional partners, varying level of socio-economic development, and different priorities assigned to the BSR make for a complex and demanding setting for policymakers. All of the key challenges facing the region—boosting trade, bridging civilisational gaps, ensuring greater coordination of environmental policies, and enhancing the interconnectivity in terms of transportation network—can be met, but will require greater political engagement, adjustment of national priorities and instruments of cooperation, as well as adequate sourcing. The paper concludes with an analysis of Poland’s possible input into a more advantageous cooperation in the BSR.

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№029: NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture: Central and Eastern European Perspectives

№029: NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture: Central and Eastern European Perspectives

Author(s): Jacek Durkalec / Language(s): English

Keywords: Central Europe; Eastern Europe; nuclear security; nuclear weapons

The paper offers a comprehensive overview of the positions of Central and Eastern European states vis-à-vis the NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture Review (DDPR). The outcome of the DDPR process, which has been on the Alliance’s agenda since the summit in Lisbon in 2010, will come to the front and centre of the debate in the second half of May, as leaders of NATO member states convene for the summit in Chicago. The author discusses the Central and Eastern Europeans’ approach to the question of the overall mix of NATO defence and deterrence capabilities—nuclear forces, conventional forces, and missile defence. In particular, he argues that the debate about certain aspects of the NATO defence and deterrence posture should not cease with the endorsement of the DDPR report in Chicago, but should continue in order to address the outstanding issue of non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe.

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№028: Ukraine’s First Year in the Energy Community: Restart Needed

№028: Ukraine’s First Year in the Energy Community: Restart Needed

Author(s): Igor Lyubashenko / Language(s): English

Keywords: Eastern Europe; energetics; Energy; Eurasian Union; Europe; Ukraine

Ukraine’s membership in the Energy Community has recently come under intense scrutiny because of apparent disconnect between the expectations of the Ukrainian authorities on the one side, and of the organisation’s representatives on the other. The paper points to the possible reasons for this disturbing divergence, highlighting in particular the difficulties in reforming the Ukrainian energy sector. Some of the delays in meeting the legal obligations resulting from the membership in the Community can be attributed to the ongoing negotiations with Russia over the prices of imported natural gas. Although Ukraine’s long-term, strategic interests in the area of natural gas transit and electricity production could help bridge the differences with the Energy Community, there is no room for complacency on either side. The author argues that progress towards Ukraine’s further integration with the EU in the energy field is not a foregone conclusion, and a rethinking of both the pace and the instruments of cooperation is urgently needed.

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№027: Russia’s International Climate Policy

№027: Russia’s International Climate Policy

Author(s): Andrzej Turkowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: Asia; climate; energetics; Energy; Eurasia; Europe; Russia

The paper presents the determinants, goals and instruments of the Russian international climate policy. The author points to the pragmatism that characterizes the Russian approach to the climate change issue, and highlights the key drivers behind Russia’s stance during the recently-launched post-Durban negotiations.

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№026: The EU Budgetary Chess Game, the Polish Presidency and the Shadows of the Debt Crisis

№026: The EU Budgetary Chess Game, the Polish Presidency and the Shadows of the Debt Crisis

Author(s): Paweł Tokarski,Patryk Toporowski / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU budget; budget; Euro; Europe; European Union; eurozone

The times are hardly auspicious for making tough decisions about the future of the European Union’s finances. European integration is under stress in the light of the potentially debilitating debt crisis which threatens the long-term viability of the eurozone. In addition, the negotiations over the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)—an arduous, seemingly routine process, with scant possibilities for bold moves and widespread awareness about the limits of the eventual compromise, yet extremely prone to politicization—have become even more protracted as new actors, most notably the European Parliament, seek to gain additional prominence. Still, the process will be largely driven by the biggest net contributors to the EU budget, namely Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Transparency could thus be a decisive feature of the negotiating process, allowing less influential Member States to hedge against the proposals undermining the solidarity which underpins the EU budget. Still, as the authors conclude, the outlook is rather pessimistic for the EU, as the stalemate hampers a more effective application of the MFF to tackle economic challenges.

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№025: The European Union and India: Partners in Democracy Promotion?

№025: The European Union and India: Partners in Democracy Promotion?

Author(s): Patryk Kugiel / Language(s): English

Keywords: democracy; democratization; India; Asia; Asia and Pacific; Europe; European Endowment for Democracy (EED); European Union; international cooperation; South Asia

On February 10, leaders of the European Union and India met to take stock of the state of their strategic partnership. The agenda of the 12th EU-India Summit featured, among others, a discussion about the past year’s developments in Northern Africa and the possibilities of assisting the ongoing changes in the region. As the author points out, engaging India in this context will require a better understanding of the Indian approach to democracy support, and a frank dialogue about the differences between the EU and India in this particular area. He then goes on to explain the reasons for these divergences, and indentifies possible avenues of cooperation. The paper argues that different approaches to democracy ought to be considered as complimenting, and not necessarily contradicting each other. The EU and India can work together on some very specific issues, even if the differences turn out to be impossible to bridge.

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№024: The European Union and Brazil as Privileged Partners? Difficult Path to an Authentic Strategic Partnership

№024: The European Union and Brazil as Privileged Partners? Difficult Path to an Authentic Strategic Partnership

Author(s): Bartłomiej Znojek / Language(s): English

Keywords: Brazil; European Union; bilateral relations; Europe; international cooperation; South America

Following the creation of the EU-Brazil strategic partnership nearly five years ago, the density of contacts between the European Union and the largest Latin American country has grown steadily. However, while it looks impressive on paper given the potential of both sides, and seems like a no-brainer in the light of EU’s global ambitions and Brazil’s economic and political rise, including its status as a part of the BRICS forum, the relationship is not free from significant tensions. It is not entirely clear whether the seemingly unanimous endorsement of a multi-polar international order means the same for both partners. In addition, further deepening of the EU-Brazil partnership could have rather adverse effects on consolidating Mercosur, and EU dialogue with that bloc. It will be increasingly hard for the EU, adversely affected by the economic downturn, to gain real interest of Brazilian authorities in a truly strategic partnership, as they evidently see relations with other emerging countries as much more advantageous in carrying out own global ambitions. While the EU and Brazil will continue to consider each other as important partners, they need to carefully manage these and other incompatibilities of their relationship, lest they fail to fulfil its potential.

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